Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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894 FXUS64 KEWX 261751 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1251 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Today and Monday will be the hottest two days of the spring season, and we`d like to think summer season as well. The eastward shift of the base of the Central Plains upper trough will pull the dry higher terrain air east into the rest of South Central Texas, leading to the peak period of this early season Heatwave. The hottest ambient air temperatures seen in any May at DRT will reach heat advisory criteria based on temperature, while in areas to the south and east, the heat index values getting into the 113 to 115 degree range have much of the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Prairies in an Excessive Heat Warning. A similar day is projected for Monday for most areas, so we`ll opt to extend this hazard to carry over into Monday. Tonight`s minimum temperatures are again going to be very warm with more highest minimum temperature records likely to fall. At the end of this heatwave nightmare, there could be a few areas destabilizing as a mid-level moisture fetch from the Pacific crosses through Mexico. This could set up an inverted-V sounding look for 00Z Tuesday. As a result we`ve opted for an isolated mention of thunderstorms for parts of the forecast area as a precursor for slightly better rain chances to develop after 00Z. We could be entering that transition period where the potential for hail is reduced, but there should be enough heat out there to make any storm that develops a risk for producing strong wind gusts. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 A slight pattern change during the long-term portion of the forecast could lead to prolonged low chances of showers and storms during the extended period. The center of the upper ridge will be well south of our area and several weak disturbances will allow for at least a slight chance to chance of showers and storms mainly during the afternoon and evening periods beginning Monday and in place each day through the upcoming work-week. It is much too difficult to really pin down locations, amounts of rainfall, and impacts as what occurs each day will likely be impacted by what happened during the prior day. Some periods of locally heavy rainfall can`t be ruled out for certain periods as PWAT values approach 2 inches at times. In addition, higher CAPE values will also lead to possible strong storm activity each day. With the increased rain chances and moisture, high temperatures will be lower once again ranging from near 90 in the northeast to near 100 along the Rio Grande. This will negate any need for heat products next week. Overall, next week will be a tough forecast as many want beneficial rainfall, but amounts and locations will be highly uncertain day-to-day. While most locations have 20-30 PoPs each day next week, there will be some who unfortunately most likely not see any rain at all next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Clouds have been stubborn to vacate the I-35 corridor early this afternoon. Still hanging onto MVFR SAT/AUS/SSF along with some 5-6SM visby with haze and likely some smoke in there as well. The 850 trough with its NW winds is pushing through the Hill Country and this eventually should get into I35 and allow the MVFR decks to scatter out. Already seeing this trend on Satellite. Out over the far west...a surface trough has pushed through Val Verde County so DRT has gone a westerly wind...eventually will be a N wind by later this afternoon. Skies will remain clear at DRT rest of the day. For tonight...any affect mid level dry air trying to work into the region will not hold...and low clouds should redevelop with MVFR and IFR at SAT/AUS/SSF. Was a little hesitant to bring the clouds into DRT tomorrow morning with the NAM showing a deck...but decided to mention it with a SCT instead. Winds should go fairly light after the sun goes down...return with some light to moderate East and SE tomorrow most areas. Despite a carry of slight pop for Monday across the region, will leave mention of any TS out of the forecast as confidence is too low. && .CLIMATE... (RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY) Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 SUN MON 05/26 05/27 -------------------------- AUS 97/2018 100/2011 ATT 99/2018 100/2011 SAT 100/1989 100/2011 DRT 106/2018 106/2018 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 98 77 99 75 / 10 0 10 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 98 76 99 74 / 10 0 10 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 101 76 101 75 / 10 0 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 97 73 97 72 / 10 0 20 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 109 76 110 81 / 0 0 10 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 98 75 98 73 / 10 0 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 103 76 105 75 / 10 0 20 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 98 76 100 74 / 10 10 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 96 78 97 75 / 10 10 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 100 77 101 75 / 10 0 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 101 78 103 76 / 10 0 10 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for Kinney-Maverick-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Zavala. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Monday for Atascosa-Bastrop- Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Fayette-Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe- Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Medina-Travis-Wilson. && $$ Short-Term...09 Long-Term...17 Aviation...09