Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
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040 FXUS64 KMEG 071133 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 633 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 A ridge of high pressure will bring rain free weather and less humid air to the Mid-South through Saturday morning. Highs today will be in the 80s with lows tonight in the 60s. Humidity will increase on Saturday as southerly winds on the back side of high pressure return to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A cold front will drop into the region late Saturday night into Sunday bringing a return of showers and thunderstorms to the area. A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly north of I-40 Saturday night. Large hail, damaging winds, and localized heavy rainfall are the threats for any thunderstorms that become severe. Rain chances will decrease into next week as an upper-level ridge slowly builds across the region. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 341 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 GOES-16 Water Vapor satellite trends show an elongated upper- level low centered over eastern Ontario, an upper-level trough encompassing the eastern half of the US, and upper-level ridging across the western U.S. Early morning surface analysis shows a weak cold front bisecting the Lower Mississippi Valley over central Arkansas through north Mississippi. Temperatures as of 3 AM CDT range from the middle to upper 60s north of I-40, and lower 70s south. The aforementioned front will continue pushing south across the remainder of the area today as a ridge of high pressure settles in across the Mid-South. This will result in a less humid airmass across the area through tonight. Highs will be in the 80s with a few locations approaching the upper 80s. Surface dewpoints will increase again on Saturday as southerly winds gradually advect low-level moisture back up into the area. Short-term models indicate the Lower Mississippi Valley will remain on the eastern periphery of an upper-level ridge axis initially on Saturday while areas closer to the MO/KY border will be under the influence of northwest flow aloft. A series of subtle shortwaves embedded within the mid-level flow will bring several chances for showers and thunderstorms over the Middle Mississippi Valley. Model soundings indicate a combination of low- level dry air and the presence of a capping inversion will keep rain chances minimal across most of the forecast area until modest mid-level height falls occur Saturday night into Sunday. HREF/LREF Grand Ensemble output shows a corridor of strong surface-based instability with 0-6 km shear between 30-35 kts, and moderately steep to steep mid-level lapse rates from the Ozarks to the northern half of the Mid-South. These parameters would favor the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds as the primary severe weather threats. NAEFS precipitable water values approaching the 90th percentile for early June will pose a localized heavy rainfall threat for any training thunderstorms. Long range operational and ensemble model guidance indicates the Mid-South will remain under the influence of northwest flow aloft through early next week with mid-level heights increasing towards late next week. This will result in some lingering isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Mid-South, especially south of I-40 during peak heating. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Mostly sunny conditions are expected today with light northwest winds becoming more northerly this afternoon. A few Cu are possible this afternoon, but coverage will be limited. No rain is anticipated throughout the current TAF period. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC AVIATION...MJ