136
FXUS66 KHNX 282015
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
115 PM PDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A slight cooling trend will take place on Wednesday then a
warming trend will follow on Thursday and Friday which will
result in afternoon highs of 5 to 10 degrees above normal that
will continue through Saturday.

2. There is a 65 to 85 percent probability for temperatures to
reach or exceed 95 degrees on Friday in the San Joaquin Valley.

3. Gusty west winds are expected tonight and Wednesday morning
for the Mojave Desert Slopes and Kern County Desert.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper trough is pushing inland across the PAC
NW which is maintaining an onshore flow over central CA today.
The trough pulled a weak shortwave through our area today which
has provided for enough instability and lift for a few showers
to develop near the Sierra crest from Fresno County northward.
The convection is expected to continue through late this
afternoon and a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out for the
Sierra crest today. The other impact this shortwave will have is
that is will bring a period of increased onshore p-grads which
will produce gusty winds across the Kern County Deserts this
evening and tonight. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the
Mojave Desert Slopes from 800 pm PDT this evening until 800 am
Wednesday morning.

Meanwhile as the trough moves further inland into the
intermountain west region on Wednesday, the flow aloft will turn
more northerly and bring a slight cooling trend to our area as
heights and thicknesses lower some. However, daytime highs are
still expected to be a few degrees above normal. SREF is showing
an upper ridge building inland into CA on Thursday and Friday
which will provide for mainly clear skies, dry weather and
temperatures warming to well above daily climatological normals
as heights and thicknesses rise. In fact, by Friday the latest
NBM probabilistic guidance is indicating a 65 to 85 percent
probability for temperatures to reach or exceed 95 DEG F in the
San Joaquin Valley. A few locations might actually reach the
century mark for the first time in 2024.

Medium range ensemble means are showing the ridge breaking down
and retrograding over the weekend as a shortwave drops through
the Great Basin and brings a cooling trend to our area along
with another period of breezy to windy conditions across the
Mojave Desert Slopes and the Kern County Deserts.

The ensemble means are then showing the ridge building back
inland Monday through the middle of next week resulting in
continued dry conditions and temperatures rising back up to
several degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA
interior over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Wednesday for
CAZ338.

&&

$$

public/aviation/fire wx...DAS
idss...Molina

weather.gov/hanford