Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 202216
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
216 PM PST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and above normal afternoon temperatures
can be expected across the central California interior through
the holiday weekend. Patchy fog is possible in the San Joaquin
Valley during the late night and morning hours each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Temperatures are running several degrees warmer
this afternon across much of the central California interior
compared to 24 hours ago and this is a trend we can expect for
the next few days. A westerly flow aloft will prevail through
this evening and bring little more than high clouds into the
central California interior.

Otherwise, the weather pattern will remain dry and tranquil over
the central California interior for the rest of this week. That`s
good news for folks traveling to spend time with friends and
family this holiday. In truth, the only potentially adverse
weather for motorists this week might be patchy dense fog in the
San Joaquin Valley during the late night and morning hours.
Aside from that, the major highlight of our weather pattern
during the next 3 to 5 days will be the exceptionally warm
afternoons. Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day will be the warmest
days; record challenging, in fact, with thermometer readings
peaking within a few degrees of 80 in the San Joaquin Valley,
lower foothills and the Kern county desert. (Record highs for
FAT and BFL have been provided below this discussion.) We`re
pretty confident that this will be one of the warmest Thanksgiving
days on record. In Fresno, that occurred in 1986 when the high
reached 77 degrees. Bakersfield had its warmest Thanksgiving ever
in 1932 with a high temperature of 81 degrees. There is a chance
that high temperature forecasts in the San Joaquin Valley this
week could fall short of our predictions wherever morning fog is
slow to dissipate. The foggiest locales will be over agricultural
land and in the vicinity of irrigated orchards in the San Joaquin
Valley each night and morning. Otherwise, clear, calm conditions
over the CWA each night will allow for ample radiational cooling
with thermometer readings bottoming out at seasonably chilly
levels this week.

So, what`s going to cause this spell of near record warmth in
the days ahead? It`s a strong upper level ridge of high pressure
that will remain centered over Baja California all week. The
ridge will build northward over California during the few days.
The air mass over the central California interior will further
stagnate through Thanksgiving Day. A weak short wave trough that
treks eastward through the Pacific Northwest Thursday evening
will flatten the upper level ridge over central California.
As a result, high temperatures on Black Friday, Saturday and
Sunday will be slightly cooler, but still average well above
normal.

The models hint that we might get one more opportunity for wet
weather before November comes to a close. Admittedly, that
opportunity is a small one at this time, especially south of
Fresno county. The GFS is more bullish than the ECM and brings a
strong cold front and its associated upper level trough through
the CWA next Monday with some precip over the foothills and higher
elevations of the Sierra mainly north of Tulare county. Otherwise,
this system will bring a seasonably cooler air mass into the
central California interior on day 7 accompanied by locally gusty
winds. Stay tuned.


                      RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
                  ------------------------------
                     FRESNO          BAKERSFIELD
    Nov 22nd         77/1890           80/1945
    Nov 23rd         78/1932           82/2015


&&

.AVIATION...
Local IFR conditions in fog across the San Joaquin Valley from 08Z
to 18Z Tuesday; otherwise MVFR due to haze. Elsewhere, VFR
conditions will prevail across the central CA interior during the
next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Monday November 20 2017... Firepalce/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Kern and Kings Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...Durfee
avn/fw...BSO
synopsis...Durfee

weather.gov/hanford



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