Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 242349 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
349 PM PST Fri Nov 24 2017


.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will weaken on Saturday allowing
a trough of low pressure to move into Central California Sunday
and Monday. This will bring a chance of precipitation to mainly
the northern parts of the area. High pressure will then rebuild
next week.


.DISCUSSION...Mid and high level moisture continues to stream
across the Central California Interior this afternoon around the
top of a very strong ridge of high pressure located to the south.
This ridge has been responsible for the very warm weather and
continues to dominate the flow over the West. For tonight and
Saturday, the ridge will continue to hold in place as deep
moisture streams northward out along 135W.

Forecast models take much of the above mentioned moisture and move
it northeast around the periphery of the high pressure system,
effectively keeping it out of the area over the next couple of
days. On Saturday and Sunday, forecast models slowly weaken the
big ridge to the south and shift the axis to the east. Meanwhile,
models prog a deepening trough of low pressure on Sunday with
some moisture streaming into Northern California as winds aloft
turn to the west and southwest. On Sunday night the trough digs to
the southeast and this allows the treat of high elevation snow
and rain to reach the Fresno area. Snow levels will be rather high
initially at around 110000 feet and then fall overnight ranging
from 6000 to 8000 feet over the Sierra.

A weakening area of low pressure is then projected to move into
the Bay Area by early Monday and then quickly sweep across
Central California during the day. The best chance of
precipitation for lower elevations will be late Sunday night and
Monday morning before the low ejects east Monday afternoon
effectively bringing any precipitation chances to an end. At this
time is is likely that areas to the south of Fresno will see just
some light precipitation and for Kern County, just trace amounts
in the SJV and a quick hitting light precipitation over the
Mountains with desert remaining dry.

High pressure is then projected to rebuild over the region Monday
night and Tuesday before another fast moving low pressure area
moves across the Great Basin Wednesday and Thursday. All in all a
relatively weak system to be followed by more dry weather as
November ends up being very dry.


.AVIATION...In the San Joaquin Valley, areas of MVFR in haze can
be expected during the next 24 hours with local IFR/LIFR
conditions due to fog between 12z and 18z Friday. VFR conditions
will prevail elsewhere across the central CA interior during the
next 24 hours.


.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...On Saturday November 25 2017... Unhealthy
for sensitive groups in Kern and Tulare Counties. Firepalce/Wood
Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in
Fresno... Kern... Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area)... Kings...
Madera and Tulare Counties. Further information is available at



The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.



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