Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 190051
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
451 PM PST Sat Feb 18 2017
A Pacific storm system will bring another round of rain and high
elevation snow beginning Sunday afternoon and continuing through
Satellite loops show the upper low responsible for the heavy winds
and precipitation yesterday is now shifting inland over Baja CA.
Radar imagery has been showing scattered mainly light showers over
the foothills and west side of the San Joaquin Valley through the
day. Hi-res models show some light showers continuing to develop
in the foothills overnight, mainly in Kern County. Additional rain
accumulations should generally be less than a tenth of an inch.
A brief break is expected on Sunday with dry conditions likely for
the morning and early afternoon.
An East Pacific upper trough will steer a ~1.5" PW plume towards
the central CA coast for another round of significant rain and high
elevation snow beginning late Sunday afternoon. The heaviest period
of precipitation is expected from Sunday night through Monday, but
showers will continue at times through Wednesday. The latest model
runs have trended higher with precipitation amounts. Snow levels
will generally be above 7000 feet and a Winter Storm Watch has
been issued for the Sierra Nevada from Yosemite NP to Kings Canyon
NP from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. 1 to 3 feet of
snow is forecast with and up to 4 feet possible from Kings Canyon
northward. Rain amounts below 7000 feet into the Sierra foothills
are forecast to range from 2 to 5 inches. The San Joaquin Valley
will see rain shadowing, but areas from Fresno County northward
could see 1" to 1.5" with the east side of the valley favored for
the higher amounts. A Flood Watch has been issued for the Sierra
below 7000 feet and the SJ Valley from Fresno County north from
Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning. While the brunt of the
storm is still expected to stay north of Kern County, areas around
Lake Isabella could see 2 inches of rainfall from Sunday night
through Tuesday morning. Current guidance gives the Frazier Park
area around one half an inch of rainfall. Rain shadowing will be
more pronounced in the southern SJ Valley with a quarter to one
half an inch rain expected. The Kern County Desert may see around
one third of an inch.
Southerly winds will begin to increase over the San Joaquin Valley
late Sunday night. Gusty conditions will be strongest on Monday
along the west side and from Merced County down to around Fresno.
Gusty westerly winds are then likely to develop in the Kern County
Mountains and Desert on Wednesday.
Showers are expected to diminish on Wednesday with dry conditions
forecast Thursday and Friday. The medium range models indicate a
return to wet weather possible next weekend as an upper trough
drops down from the north, but there is still a lot of uncertainty
that far out.
Local MVFR ceilings and visibilities along the Sierra foothills and
Tehachapi mountains through 12z Sunday. Otherwise VFR conditions can
be expected elsewhere across the central California during the next
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning
ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096-097.