Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 250952
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
252 AM PDT Sat Mar 25 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather through the weekend before a warming
and drying trend takes hold of central California next week.
.DISCUSSION...An upper trough is currently pushing east into
central California with a round of showers impacting much of the
area. Rainfall rates are generally between a few hundredths of an
inch to a tenth of an inch an hour...with the heaviest showers
north of Tulare and Kings counties. Snow levels are currently
hovering between 7000 and 7500 feet and are forecast to remain
around that level through the day.
The high res and medium range models are all in agreement that
widespread showers will become less numerous late this morning
with much of the activity shifting to the east and south valley as
well as the southern Sierra Nevada. By this evening...central
California will see dry conditions...except possible light upslope
showers in far southern Kern county with the presence of northerly
Otherwise...brief upper level ridging will be present over the
area late Saturday into early Sunday as the upper trough shifts
quickly east into Nevada, Arizona, and Utah.
By Sunday afternoon an upper trough will extend from the British
Columbia coastline south into northern California...bringing
another round of precipitation to the area. The best chance for
precipitation will be from Fresno northward on Monday morning. The
forecast models keep nudging any chance of precipitation north run
after run as well as not bringing as much precipitation to the
area as previously forecast. Point being...this storm looks quite
a bit weaker compared to a few days ago. Regardless...at this
time...expect a few hundredths of an inch from Fresno northward
and between a tenth of an inch to a half inch in the mountains.
Snow levels will be a bit cooler with this storm...around 6000
feet. Snow accumulation will range from a dusting near Sequoia
and Kings Canyon National Parks to upwards of 5 inches over the
highest elevations in Yosemite National Park.
Breezy conditions will develop on Monday in the desert as surface
high pressure strengthens over the eastern Pacific while surface
low pressure dominates the desert southwest. Wind gusts in excess
of 40 mph will be present much of the day on Monday across the
desert and Kern county mountains. We will continue to monitor this
closely as a wind advisory may need to be issued.
An upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to shift east
over central California from the eastern Pacific Monday afternoon
into at least Wednesday resulting in dry weather and a warming
trend. As of now...Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the
week with daytime high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s in the
valley and desert. These temperatures are around 5 degrees above
normal for the end of March.
Subtle cooling will occur Thursday and Friday as a storm system
passes to the north and east of the area.
In the San Joaquin Valley, areas of MVFR and local IFR in low clouds
and rain thru 18Z Sat then local MVFR in showers until 00Z Sun. In
the Southern Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills as well as over
the Tehachapi Mountains, widespread mountain obscuring IFR in low
clouds and precipitation through 00Z Sun then areas of MVFR and
local mountain obscuring IFR in low clouds after 00Z Sun. Otherwise,
VFR conditions can be expected across the central CA interior for
the next 24 hrs.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning ABOVE 7000
FEET FOR THE CAZ096.