Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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230
FXUS66 KHNX 222142
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
242 PM PDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A few storm systems will move through central
California during the next several days with episodes of
wet weather. Temperatures will average slightly cooler
than normal through early next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Cold front currently extends from easternmost
Fresno County southwwestward into central Kern County with
a solid line of showers. A few of them have brought briefly
heavy rain accompanied by some thunder and lightning so far
today. Convection is likely to intensify along this frontal
boundary in the valley and higher elevations of Kern county
this afternoon before exiting southeast of the CWA this
evening.

Other thunderstorm cells are popping up in the post frontal
environment from Kings county northward into Merced county as of
this writing and will likely intensify a bit during the next
few hours as the atmospheric environment becomes more unstable
and the associated upper level trough moves inland. A few
thunderstorms will be equipped with small hail, heavy downpours
and gusty winds. Most of the shower activity will diminish after
sunset except in the mountains of Tulare county and Kern county
where an upslope flow will generate just enough orographic lift to
support isolated showers into Thursday morning. Otherwise, short
wave ridging aloft will bring dry weather to the CWA Thursday
through Thursday night.

The models bring the next upstream trough into California Friday
evening. With its approach, we can expect an increase in
cloudiness across our CWA Friday. Although the models are now
slowing down the arrival of precip over the central California
interior Friday, a strengthening 300 mb jet could induce
orographic precip in the Sierra primarily north of Kings Canyon by
Friday afternoon. POPS were trimmed back on Friday over the
southern half of the CWA based on the slower timing of the
models. Nonetheless, wet weather looks destined to move into much
of the central California interior by nightfall Friday as this
second upper level trough moves inland. The models forecast this
trough to exit into the Great Basin Saturday afternoon, during
which time the best chance of showers will probably be in the
mountains. Another short wave ridge aloft is progged to move over
central California Saturday evening through midday Sunday.
Although residual showers cannot be ruled out in the upslope areas
of the CWA during this time, dry weather should prevail.

A colder and stronger storm system is slated to move into the
central California interior Sunday evening through Monday with a
return of wet weather in most areas. The GFS is a little slower
and deeper with this trough than any of the other models. If so,
precip will linger over the mountains and desert through Tuesday.
We`re leaning toward model consensus and the ensembles which
favor faster movement of this trough and dry weather on days 6
and 7. Additionally, it may be cold enough aloft Monday to
support the development of isolated afternoon thunderstorms with
small hail in the San Joaquin valley and adjacent foothills.
Otherwise, each of these storm systems, the current one included,
will bring generally small accumulations of snow to elevations
above 7,000 feet during the course of the next five days. That`s
good news for those who enjoy spring skiing in the Sierra.


.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing across the
region through 05Z Thursday. These will produce areas of MVFR
conditions with local IFR/LIFR in heavier activity...including
terrain obscurrations in the mountains and foothills. Locally gusty
and erratic winds will also accompany the storms. VFR conditions can
otherwise be expected across the central California interior for the
next 24 hrs.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...Durfee
avn/fw...JEB
synopsis...Durfee

weather.gov/hanford



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