Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
709 FXUS66 KHNX 290941 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 241 AM PDT Mon Apr 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Desert Slopes valid from 4 PM this afternoon through 5 AM Tuesday morning. 2. Strong wind gusts are likely across the Mojave Desert Slopes from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. 3. High temperatures will change little through Wednesday, remaining around climatological averages for this time of year. 4. Warming conditions are expected late in the week with highs around 8 to 12 degrees above normal on Friday. Probabilities of exceedance for 90 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley are around 25 to 50%. && .DISCUSSION... A dry northwest flow aloft continues with upper ridging over the Eastern Pacific and a long wave trough across the western CONUS. A short wave trough is located just off the Pacific Northwest coast. A steady onshore flow pattern has been producing breezy conditions across the San Joaquin Valley with strong wind gusts along the Mojave Desert Slopes. The wind is waning at this time but will pick up again this afternoon. Probabilities for gusts of 45 mph along the Mojave Slopes generally range from 60 to 90%. A Wind Advisory has been issued from 4 PM this afternoon through 6 AM Tuesday morning. High temperatures topped out right around climatological normals on Sunday afternoon. Little change is expected through Wednesday then warming to around 5 degrees above normal on Thursday. More warming pushes maximum temperatures to around 10 degrees above normal on Friday. Here are probabilities for a high temperature of 90 degrees or higher for locations in the San Joaquin Valley on Friday. Merced 16%Hanford 41% Madera 31% Visalia 41% Fresno 41% Porterville 36% Reedley 21%Delano 46% Lemoore 41%Bakersfield 46% Cluster analysis shows an upper trough over the west coast next weekend but with significant strength and timing differences. Temperatures are forecast to cool a few degrees on Saturday but still remain slightly above normal. Further cooling Sunday drops high temperatures to around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION... Strong wind gusts from 35 to 45 knots will redevelop along the Mojave Desert slopes in eastern Kern County this afternoon until Tuesday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across Central California for at least the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338. && $$ DCH weather.gov/hanford