Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 151131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
431 AM PDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Mostly clear and breezy conditions will prevail
through this evening. Temperatures will remain below normal
through Wednesday. A warming trend is expected to take place
later this week.


.DISCUSSION...Upper trough now over the Great Basin this morning
brought cooler temperatures and breezy to locally windy
conditions to our area on Monday as it pushed east across CA.
Although winds are beginning to taper off, a cool northwest flow
will prevail across our area today as we remain situated in
between the departing trough and a building offshore upper ridge
near 140W.

The prevailing northerly flow pattern will keep the cool airmass
in place over our area today with afternoon highs expected to be
5-10 DEG F below normal across our CWFA. The prevailing airmass
is dry with mostly clear skies overhead; however, the WRF is
indicating enough instability this afternoon and evening for
isolated showers across the Southern Sierra Nevada north of Kings
Canyon. An upper shortwave is progged to drop south across CA on
Wednesday which will provide for another day of below normal
temperatures as well as another afternoon of convective sheers
across the Southern Sierra Nevada, mainly north of Kings Canyon.

Temperatures will being to recover by Thursday as the offshore
ridge nudges inland and heights and thicknesses rise. Medium
range models are in fairly good agreement that the upper ridge
will prevail over CA from Friday through early next week. This
will result in slightly above normal temperatures for our area
though the period which means highs close to the century mark in
the San Joaquin Valley. The models are trending drier for the
extended period and indicating less of a likelihood of tropical
moisture reaching Socal. Have left in a slight chance of diurnal
convection near the southern Sierra crest for Friday through
Monday for now, but the models are trending drier.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA
interior during the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.



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