Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 162344
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
344 PM PST Fri Feb 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer than normal conditions continue through Saturday as high
pressure builds overhead. Temperatures will trend higher today
and Saturday as high pressure builds inland. An approaching
storm system will weaken the high beginning Sunday and will drag
a cold front through our area by Monday morning. This system will
bring increased winds to our area Sunday Night and Monday along
with a chance of mountain showers. Temperatures will be below
normal for early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Our temperatures are running above normal today, with light winds
and mainly sunny skies on the edge of a pacific ridge of high
pressure. The ridge is progged to nose slightly inland Saturday,
maintaining dry conditions, with afternoon highs pushing to around
10 degrees above climo.

A change in conditions is in store by Sunday as models are in
fairly close agreement in pushing a cold frontal system through
the region, though some slight differences remain in the exact
timing and trajectory. Consensus forecast brings some cooling to
northern portions of our area by Sunday as the frontal system
moves in. The front is progged to move southward through our area
overnight Sunday night. The best moisture and energy remain to
our east, but there will be a chance for mainly mountain
precipitation as the system moves through, Sunday night into
Monday morning. Expect gusty winds to also accompany the front
as it moves through late Sunday into Monday. Cold air behind the
front will bring snow levels down into the foothills, though no
significant accumulating snow is expected with this relatively dry
system.

The very cold air will also bring freezing temperatures to the
lower elevations. Conditions will still be stirred up Monday
morning, and lows in the San Joaquin Valley are only expected to
drop into the mid 30s. Tuesday however will be a colder morning,
as clear skies and light winds allow for better radiational
cooling. Overnight lows could drop into the mid-upper 20s by
Tuesday morning.

Model solutions begin to diverge after Tuesday, as additional
shortwave energy drops south through the region. Timing and
trajectory will be critical in the effects from these systems.
Wednesday morning temperatures could be similar to Tuesday
morning, but may be somewhat moderated by a passing shortwave. The
remainder of next week then remains generally around climo as the
ridge remains disrupted by passing shortwaves. A Freeze Watch has
been issued for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday mornings for the
potential of freezing temperatures and the impact on vegetation
that has been recently experiencing more springlike conditions.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA Interior during
the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Thursday morning
CAZ089>092.

&&

$$

public...JEB
avn/fw...Molina
synopsis...JEB

weather.gov/hanford



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