Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 281100
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
400 AM PDT Tue Mar 28 2017
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the region today
through Wednesday bringing dry weather and a warming trend to the
area before another fast moving and potentially windy storm
system drops into the Great Basin on Thursday and and Thursday
Night. High pressure will return for more springlike conditions
for the weekend.
.DISCUSSION...The low pressure system that dropped southeast
through the Great Basin bringing strong winds to portions of our
area along with cooler temperatures and some light precipitation
is now centered over northern AZ and will move east through the
four corners regions today. Meanwhile, an upper ridge is
amplifying off the CA coast near 130W and this feature is progged
to build inland later today and tonight bringing dry conditions
and a warming trend to our area.
At this time, skies are clear across our area except for some
residual low upslope clouds over the valley facing slopes of the
Tehachapi Mountains. These clouds will gradually erode this
morning as drier air continues to push into our area. While winds
have decreased significantly since Monday afternoon a few
indicator sites in the Kern County Mountains and Deserts are still
reporting gusts near 50 mph.
Guidance indicating temperatures rising to near normal today and
above normal on Wednesday as high pressure strengthens over the
area. The upper ridge is progged to remain in control until
Wednesday Night when another low is progged to push into the PAC
NW. Lime the Monday storm, this system is progged to drop
southeast through the Great Basin on Thursday and Thursday Night,
bringing cooler temperatures, a period of increased winds and
chances of some light precipitation mainly over the Southern
The medium range models are in fairly good agreement with this
system moving east of our area on Friday and another ridge
building into CA for next weekend resulting in mostly clear skies
and above normal temepratures. The solutions diverge beyond then
as the GFS brings a strong upper trough through our area on
Monday while the ECMWF shows a weaker system tracking north of
our area. THE GEM is sort of a compromise between the two ideas
indicating a trough moving through although not as strong as the
GFS. For now have trended with the drier ECWMF as it has shown
the best run to run consistency. The RMOP is indicating very low
predictabilty for early next week suggesting that confidence
beyond next weekend is low.
.AVIATION...There will be some upslope cloudiness along the
mountains in Tulare and Kern Counties, creating areas of MVFR
ceilings and local mountain obscuring IFR in low clouds thru 18Z
Tue. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected across the central
CA interior for the next 24 hours.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None.
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.