Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 192245
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
245 PM PST Sun Feb 19 2017
Unsettled weather returned to the area today. These conditions are
expected to continue through at least the middle of next week.
More precipitation entering the region today as yet another storm
approaches the West Coast. While the previous storm is now
pushing through the four corners area, the next major storm is
just north of the Hawaiian islands. Precipitation is already
falling ahead of this next storm as regional Doppler radars show
light strati-form mainly west of the Sierra Nevada. Current trend
is to have precipitation spread into the mountains this evening
with heavy snow possible later tonight. In addition to the on-
coming storm, winds will be on the increase on Monday during the
Short range models show good difluent flow ahead of the next trof
which is resulting in today`s light precipitation. Precip-water
satellite imagery showing another atmospheric river type moisture
flow heading for California today. Current trend is to have the
high moisture content of the plume hit California overnight and
into Monday. Therefore, support is high with having significant
precipitation fall over Central California overnight and into
Of a bigger concern in the short term for the region is the
current hydrologic conditions. The recent storms have caused
problems for area rivers and other water control facilities.
Therefore, will expect the latest storm to continue the problem as
addition water enters the system. The amounts observed caused
river and creeks to run at high flow levels and threaten the
Central California Interior. Therefore, confidence is high that
these problems will arise again. River statements and flood
products have been posted as rivers and many creeks reach levels
that may threaten life and property across Central California.
Models continue to show higher confidence levels that cyclonic
flow will remain over the West through most of the week.
Therefore, unsettled conditions will linger beyond the short term
as precipitation may exist over the West Coast through at least
Friday. One thing to note is that models currently show only one
atmospheric river type event occurring in the next seven days.
Therefore, while precipitation will not stop, the intensity of
precipitation amounts may not be as great in the longer term
By next Saturday, longer range models show an upper low dropping
down along the Pacific Northwest/Northern California (NorCal)
Coast. Uncertainty is still high, but models do indicate the
existence of the upper low off the NorCal Coast during the day on
Saturday. Will return to a wet pattern by Saturday as the
possibility exist for even more precipitation.
Areas of mountain obscuration developing over the Sierra and
Tehachapi mountains after 03Z this evening. Local MVFR conditions
in rain in the San Joaquin Valley after 06z. Otherwise VFR
conditions prevailing elsewhere across the central California
interior during the next 24 hours.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
Flood Watch from 10 PM PST this evening through Tuesday morning
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Tuesday ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096-097.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight PST Monday