Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 242309
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
409 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will be around seasonal averages through Wednesday,
then back above normal for the remainder of the week. A moist
southerly flow will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the
mountains and Kern Desert through Tuesday, with just a few
lingering storms possible over the Sierra crest Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Southerly flow between a weak upper low nearing northern CA
and the Southwest US ridge is drawing moisture northward. This
moisture feed is far enough west to fire of scattered showers
and some thunderstorms over our mountain and desert zones this
afternoon. Increased cloud cover is helping to keep 24 hr
temperature trends down a few to several degrees over the
mountains and south Valley, most notably in the desert areas
where temperatures are running 10-15 degrees lower than this
time yesterday. Farther north in the Valley, the effects of the
upper low are helping to bring a few degrees of cooling as marine
air spills into the area.

Without any significant upper feature tracking through the region,
the convection is forecast by short-term hi-res models to mostly
diminish through the evening hours, with just some lingering
mainly light activity over the desert and higher elevation areas.
On Monday July 24, 2017...Unhealthy for sensitive groups in Kern
County.
Models continue to handle the evolving synoptic situation
similarly as the upper low is progged to gradually open up and
move inland over northern CA through Wednesday. This will allow
the ridge to expand westward and turn the flow more southwesterly,
nudging the moisture field farther to the east. Convection is
expected to be focused farther to the east, but still will develop
over the higher mountains and desert areas. By Wednesday, there
will just be lingering activity near the Sierra crest as the
moisture pushes farther to the west.

The ridge will then expand farther west through the end of the
week providing dry and warming conditions across our area. Thus,
temps will rise from near normal Tuesday to a few degrees above by
the end of the week.

Models diverge for the first part of next week, with the
operational GFS showing a return of moisture to our area around
the western periphery of the ridge. For now we are showing just a
slight chance for convection along the Sierra crest.


&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR visibilities in smoke from area wildfires. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms continuing over the Sierra Nevada and
Kern county mountains and desert through 06Z Tuesday and
developing again after 18Z Tuesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail across the central CA interior during the next 24
hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
Please see SFOAQAHNX for Air Quality Alert.

None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...JEB
avn/fw...Molina
synopsis...JEB

weather.gov/hanford



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