Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
483 FXUS66 KHNX 080825 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 125 AM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Temperatures will lower this weekend, but are forecast to still be around 3 to 6 degrees above normal by Sunday. 2. Another round of triple digit heat is forecast by the middle of next week, with probabilities of afternoon highs exceeding 100 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley between 50 and 75 percent on Tuesday and Wednesday. 3. The warm temperatures will allow increased snowmelt to continue over the Sierra Nevada, resulting in colder and higher flows along rivers and waterways. && .DISCUSSION... For today, most areas will get a brief break from the triple digit heat, at least in the San Joaquin Valley. However, some valley locations still have about a 20 to 40 percent chance to reach 98 degrees today. The desert locations have a similar chance for highs at least 100 degrees, except triple digit heat remains nearly certain (90-100 percent chance) in the Indian Wells Valley this afternoon. Due to the flow of marine air through the passes, some locally gusty winds are occurring overnight towards the coastal ranges, such as Pacheco Pass, with gusts around 30 to 40 mph. High resolution guidance suggests a recurrence of breezy conditions this afternoon and evening, though with gusts around 30 mph. A slight (10 to 20 percent) chance continues for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon for locations along the Sierra Nevada crest, mainly in Fresno and Tulare Counties. The trend of lowering temperatures continues into Sunday. Lower probabilities are shown for Sunday regarding highs in the upper 90`s in the Central Valley and triple digits in the Kern County desert, except the Indian Wells Valley still has about a 70 percent chance. Monday will be similar to Sunday in terms of high temperatures, although the chances of a high at least 95 degrees (roughly 5 degrees above seasonal averages) are around 20 to 40 percent on Sunday and 35 to 55 percent on Monday. In short, it will be a noticeable change in temperatures, although slightly above average highs will prevail. The upper-level ridge rebuilds by midweek. The potential for widespread triple digit heat begins Tuesday and will last into Wednesday. For both days, the probabilities have increased to about 50-75 percent chance throughout the San Joaquin Valley. Also, the chances for another 105 degree reading are 20-40 percent in the SJ Valley for Wednesday and up to 20 percent on Tuesday. Highs at or above 105 degrees have a much greater chance (60-80 percent) of occurrence in Ridgecrest/China Lake for both days. So, while it may not be as hot as Thursday`s observed temperatures, it will be close. At this time, moderating temperatures are generally projected for Friday and next weekend, or similar temperatures to this coming Sunday and Monday. With this scenario, we will have to monitor for another increase in winds in the typical prone areas. Snowmelt will continue in the Sierra Nevada into next week with an increase during midweek due to the anticipated heat. Unfortunately, the threat of dangerously cold, fast moving water in rivers and waterways will remain for the period. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ BSO/EW weather.gov/hanford