Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 221030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
330 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will rise back to above normal levels
this weekend as high pressure strengthens over the region. Dry
conditions will prevail this weekend except for the possibility
of an isolated thunderstorms over the Southern Sierra Nevada
Sunday. A moist southerly flow will bring a chances of
thunderstorms to the mountains and Kern Deserts on Monday and


.DISCUSSION...Large upper ridge over the south central CONUS is
progged to retrograde westward this weekend which will bring a
warming trend to our area as heights and thicknesses rise after
two days of near seasonable daytime temperatures. A weak
disturbance pushing inland just to the north of our area
overnight brought some mid/high clouds to the northern most
portions of our CWFA overnight. Otherwise clear skies prevailed
although smoke from the Detwiler Fire persists over the southern
Sierra foothills as well as portions of the higher Southern Sierra

Meanwhile, WV imagery indicating another shortwave near 36N/134W
which is progged to reach the Norcal coast on Sunday then remain
quasi-stationary on Monday and Tuesday as the retrograding ridge
halts it`s eastward progression. Interaction between this system
and the ridge to our east will result in increasing southerly
flow which will allow for increasing mid/upper level tropical
moisture to stream into Socal Sunday through Tuesday providing
for a slight chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms near the
southern Sierra crest on Sunday and increasing chances of diurnal
convection on Monday and Tuesday over the mountains and Kern
County Deserts.

The medium range models remain in good agreement with an upper
trough pushing into the Pac NW on Wednesday which will turn the
upper flow westerly resulting in any tropical moisture over
central CA to be pushed east of the area resulting in a drying
trend and only minimal chances of mountain convection. The ridge
is progged to strengthen again over CA later next week.
Temperatures will lower to near normal by the middle of next week
as the ridge temporarily weakens then rebound to above normal
levels by the end of next week. Some uncertainty exists if any
mid/upper level tropical moisture will return to our area late
next week. For now will opt to keep the forecast dry until there
is better models consensus on increasing moisture late next week.


.AVIATION...Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities in smoke
from area wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across
the central CA interior during the next 24 hours.





The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.


.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.



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