Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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666 FXUS61 KBUF 280654 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 254 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An usually deep storm for this time of year over Quebec will circulate cool air across our region through Thursday. The below normal temperatures will be accompanied by widespread later today into Tuesday night with notable less coverage in showers on Wednesday. Day to day warming can then be expected for the end of the week and through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... While the organized shower activity has long since departed the region...scattered showers will be found across parts of western New York through daybreak. The showers from the overnight will become fairly widespread during the day Tuesday...as a robust shortwave (well defined over srn Wisconsin at 06z) will rotate through the base of a longwave trough and cross our forecast area during the afternoon. Have bumped pops to high likely-categorical with the afternoon being quite unsettled. Elevated CAPE of 100-200 j/kg could even allow for a thunderstorm or two. Temperatures for this upcoming day will largely be in the 60s. As the aforementioned shortwave exits to our east tonight...the associated shower activity will gradually wind down. We will remain overcast though with temperatures settling into the low to mid 50s. While the base of the longwave trough will remain centered over our region on Wednesday...shortwaves moving through the deep cyclonic flow should largely track by to our south. A weak secondary cold front will stall across Pennsylvania at that time as well...so the only organized shower activity for our area will be over the western Southern Tier. Otherwise...partial clearing will be found further to the north...particularly east of Lake Ontario. Unfortunately...high temperatures will once again only in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Behind a cold front, a cooler airmass will settle over our region, accompanied by surface high pressure slowly building in from the west. Light northerly flow ahead of this surface high, combined with mostly clear skies for the nights of Wednesday through Friday will produce overnight lows in the 40s. Would not be surprised to see a sub 40 reading in one of the coldest valleys of the inland Southern Tier or east of Lake Ontario. Closer to the mild Great Lakes overnight lows will not be as chilly. While surface high pressure will be building in at the surface, a mid level trough will drop across the region from Canada on Thursday. Dry air will make any shower formation tough, with perhaps an isolated shower east of Lake Ontario. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure starting over our region the first day of June will bring light winds, and a sunny, but cool start to the day. The next mid level trough will reach our region Saturday night and Sunday. Moisture is not impressive with this feature, and will carry just slight chance to low chance PoPs for a shower or thunderstorm. Brief ridging behind this feature may keep Monday dry before yet another trough bears down upon the region later Monday and Tuesday. Behind the surface high temperatures will return back to above normal levels. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR cigs will be found through out the bulk of western and north central New York for the remainder of the overnight. Cigs will further lower to IFR levels in some areas after 08z...mainly across the western Southern Tier and elevated airfields across the Finger Lakes. A wealth of low level moisture circulating around a deep storm over Quebec will then continue to support mainly MVFR cigs for the region on Tuesday. These cigs will be accompanied by an increasing likelihood for showers...and even an isolated thunderstorm or two for the afternoon. MVFR cigs will be common throughout the region for at least the first half of Tuesday night. Outlook... Wednesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with a chance of showers. Thursday through Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE... Moderate to fresh southwesterlies will continue to support small craft advisories through Tuesday for the nearshore waters...while winds should subside enough for the SCA to expire Tuesday morning in BUF Harbor. A weakening pressure gradient will then produce moderate north to northwest breezes Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Mesonet obs at Woodgate confirm radar estimates with around 4 inches of rain measured Monday from a couple rounds of storms. This is just south of our forecast area, but it is in the Black River basin and will flow to the Boonville gauge. Basin averages are less than that, but coordinated with the NERFC and expect a basin average of around 3 inches to push the Boonville gauge to above action stage into the upcoming day. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ007. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NYZ010-019- 085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042>045. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...RSH MARINE...RSH HYDROLOGY...Apffel