434
FXUS65 KREV 092021
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
121 PM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected
this afternoon for areas south of US-50 and near the Oregon
border. Otherwise, after a respite from near-record temperatures
this weekend, a gradual heating trend returns through mid-week,
allowing temperatures to reach record territory once again. A
cooling trend with increased winds looks likely into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Current infrared satellite imagery reveals cumulus buildups
initiating off the higher terrain in Mono and Mineral counties, as
well as the Lassen County convergence zone into far northern
Washoe County. These areas will see the highest chances (20-40%) for
another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms today. Any
storms that develop will stay sub-severe with main threats being
brief heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. However, in any
stronger cells, DCAPE values between 800-1000 J/kg across the
area are supportive of gusty outflow winds to 40-45 mph and steep
mid-level lapse rates may allow for some small hail. Elsewhere,
expect continued above-average temperatures and typical afternoon
breezes with clearing skies through the evening.

A trough digging into the western US today squeezes off into a
closed low off the coast of southern California on Monday, with
upper-level ridging filling back in overhead. This pattern will
allow for another gradual warming trend, with temperatures near to
potentially above record values Tuesday-Thursday. Wednesday is
forecast to be the hottest day of the week, with current blended
guidance indicating a 40% chance to reach or exceed 100 degrees
at the Reno Airport. That said, HeatRisk will be at moderate for
nearly the entire region during this time frame, with a few
isolated areas of major possible into the interior Basin & Range.
Best to avoid outdoor activities during this time, but if your
plans take you outdoors, make sure you stay hydrated, wear
sunscreen, and wear light clothing in order to avoid heat related
illnesses.

Ensemble cluster analysis depicts a trough entering the western US
on Friday and deepening over our region through the weekend into
early next week. As such, expect a gradual cooling trend from
Friday onward, with increased winds Friday and Saturday as this
system moves into the region. Whitlam

&&

.AVIATION...

* Mostly clear skies are expected through the remainder of the
  day, except for cumulus buildups along the high terrain in Mono
  County, the Basin & Range, and Lassen into northern Washoe
  Counties. These aforementioned areas will also see a 20-40%
  chance for showers and thunderstorms between 22-06z. Main
  threats include brief heavy rainfall, gusty and erratic outflow
  winds to 35 kts, small hail, and lightning.

* Typical afternoon westerly winds prevail for all regional
  terminals today, with gusts generally between 15-25 kts.

* Density altitude concerns continue today through the remainder
  of the work week as temperatures remain well above average.

Whitlam

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$