428
FXUS64 KJAN 071919
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
119 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Areas of dense fog are expected tonight/tomorrow morning.

  - Much colder air moving in will bring a freeze to portions of
    the area Sunday night, and a widespread significant freeze
    Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Today through Tomorrow Morning...

This afternoon we have not quite seen the moisture advection needed
to produced widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. Instead
our mid/low levels continue to be dry with most of the moisture
being shunted off to our east.

For the short term the main meteorological item for concern will be
dense fog developing overnight and lingering through the morning.
Areas affected will be much reduced from the last couple of nights,
mainly being relegated to the I-59 corridor and eastwards; with
areas to the west having a slight chance for short-lived patchy
fog. The fog forecast is determined by near term high-res guidance
to be more transient, and conditions therefore should improve
sooner. That being said the conditions are a bit more unorganized
than what we saw last night and as such we may not see
widespread/centralized areas of development so the likelihood for
issuing a dense fog advisory tonight is lower.

Tomorrow...

There could be some remnant showers/storms associated with a strong
polar front entering into the CWA to the far north tonight, which
progresses through the area. The probability for both showers and
attendant thunderstorms has greatly diminished and all guidance;
with loss of the aforementioned moisture, but still lingers on the
lower end. Forecast confidence remains lower than usual concerning
whether any storms will be able to form in what should be an
environment characterized by limited moisture and ascent. If
moisture convergence can increase more than forecast, then getting a
few strong to marginally severe storms is not out of the question,
especially given the continued strong deep layer shear.
This risk remains conditional and will continue to hold off on any
formal messaging for Saturday into Saturday night.

Sunday through Tuesday...

There continues to be very high confidence that impressively cold
air will surge into the forecast area Sunday into Sunday night
behind a strong cold front as a powerful and unusually cold upper
level trough amplifies and digs southward through the MS Valley. One
thing that we`ll need to watch for a little more is the wind
potential Sunday following the frontal passage. Strong mixing will
take place as colder air aloft quickly overspreads the area and
temperatures still manage to heat up a bit, especially in the late
morning to early afternoon. Otherwise, NWP guidance remain fairly
consistent and there haven`t been significant changes concerning the
expectation for a widespread freeze.

Messaging remains a bit tricky for the overall cold air and freeze
event given there will be freeze potential late Sunday night into
early Monday morning with the initial cold advection, followed by
the primary freeze/frost event Monday night into early Tue morning
when surface high pressure becomes centered over the area. It would
not be surprising to see many locations over central/eastern MS fall
lower than forecast and reach the 20 to 23 degree range, which would
be in record low territory.

It is important to note that the guidance that tends to handle the
situation best, has been trending warmer for the  overnight lows
this weekend (through Sunday night/Monday morning) than is currently
forecast. Taking that into account, the highway 82 corridor and
northwards still remains at or below freezing for several hours in
the warmer resolution which may trigger more aggressive
messaging/advisories over the weekend (through Sunday night/Monday
morning) as we move closer to post-frontal passage. There will be a
cold weather graphic published shortly for Sunday night as
temperatures will be a bit warmer but still below freezing.

Beyond Tuesday: Temperatures will moderate quickly as the upper
trough and cold surface high shift east and allow for increased
southerly wind. Dry weather with a return to above normal
temperatures is the consensus in the global model guidance for now
as we go into mid next week. /EC/OAJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 117 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Mix of MVFR to VFR flight stratus is ongoing but should lift soon
in the next hour or so. Quiet afternoon is on tap, other than
some light showers temporarily through around 07/19Z at HBG and
PIB. Southerly flow will persist into the night, light into the
evening, and persistent Saturday. Main concerns will again be some
IFR to LIFR stratus and dense fog concerns overnight, with main
concerns in the Interstate 59 to Hwy 84 corridors. The most likely
area of concern will be at HBG and PIB (both stratus and dense
fog), while low stratus could be a concern at HEZ and MEI. Onset
is generally after 08/07-09Z Saturday and before lifting to VFR
around 08/14-15Z Saturday. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       81  60  81  53 /  20   0  10  30
Meridian      77  60  81  54 /  30  20  10  30
Vicksburg     81  60  81  53 /  10  10  10  20
Hattiesburg   81  61  83  58 /  40  10   0  30
Natchez       82  60  83  54 /  10   0   0  20
Greenville    78  58  78  50 /  10  10  10  10
Greenwood     80  60  80  49 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

OAJ/OAJ/DC