Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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841
FXUS64 KJAN 162107
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
307 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Tuesday...Visible imagery starting to show more
convective development over LA and western MS with radar data
showing some light returns. While mid level cold core low continues
moving northeast toward the upper MS valley, its weak attendant cold
front looks to poke into the northwest third of the forecast area
after midnight tonight. Limited leftover instability from this
afternoon will allow afternoon showers to lag somewhat, but boundary
layer stabilization in the warm sector will lead to lessening
convective coverage by late evening. Overnight convection will
become more confined to the convergent area along the surface
frontal boundary. A good coverage of convection will remain along
the boundary Tuesday as it stalls over northwest sections, while
elsewhere much less coverage should be observed./26/

Tuesday Night through Sunday...Mild conditions will continue
through the period with several strong systems affecting the region
later in the week with some heavy rain and severe potential.

For Tuesday night mid to upper ridging from the southeast will cause
a weak frontal boundary to stall across the region through Wednesday
night. A series of weak disturbances moving along the boundary will
bring showers and some embedded storms through Wednesday night.

The active southern stream will pivot an upper trough from the
southern plains toward the region for Thursday night. This will be
followed by a stronger system for this weekend with some good hail
potential from a strong cold core closed low. Both systems will
bring good lift, some instability, good pwats, and deep layer shear.
This will provide some potential for some heavy rainfall, flooding,
and severe weather. Models and their ensembles seem to have come
into an agreement on these two systems for later in the week. WPC
has a seven day rainfall total of 2 to 4 inches across the CWA. Will
hold off on mentioning in the HWO for now, but that could change
soon with consistent model runs to come.

Looking ahead into next week the models continue to show an active
pattern with more passing strong disturbances with a somewhat
brief cool down for early next week./17/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
MVFR to VFR ceilings will be the rule through the afternoon with
scattered light showers, especially around GLH. Scattered light
showers will continue into the evening as areas of fog begin forming.
After 17/06Z, LIFR/IFR ceiling will overspread the region while
visibilities will mostly stay MVFR. The exception will be at HBG
where calmer winds will allow LIFR ceilings and visibilities to
develop around 17/12Z once again. Conditions will begin improving
after 17/14Z./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       61  74  58  71 /  11  43  34  37
Meridian      59  76  59  70 /  10  24  28  26
Vicksburg     61  69  57  68 /  25  63  43  51
Hattiesburg   60  77  61  75 /   3  18  17  22
Natchez       63  74  59  71 /  17  48  30  49
Greenville    59  61  51  61 /  73  75  55  59
Greenwood     61  66  53  65 /  63  76  50  46

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

17/26



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