Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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635
FXUS64 KJAN 042119
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
419 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

LEFT LIMITED RISK IN FOR WINDS IN THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS WERE GUSTY DUE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
EFFICIENT MIXING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE GUSTING UP TO NEAR
30MPH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NRN AR AND CENTRAL
TN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SE TONIGHT. THIS IS DRIVING SOME
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVING TO THE SE. SOME
OF THIS COULD CLIP OUR NORTHERN AREAS MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND MIDNIGHT
BUT SHOULD BE LIGHT AT MOST. LEFT LIGHT RAIN IN FOR THE N BUT SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE CHANCES FOR BETTER LAPSE RATES
UNDER THE COLD CORE WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR NE AND KEEP CHANCES OF
THUNDER OUT OF OUR AREA. AS THE SFC BOUNDARY AND RAIN MOVE OUT
TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS TO MOVE THROUGH. THESE CLOUDS AND
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT/SFC WINDS WILL KEEP LOWS UP SOME TONIGHT.
DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH THE GEFS/NAEFS PWAT
PERCENTILES BELOW THE TENTH PERCENTILE. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
50S IN THE W TO UPPER 40S IN THE E. AS THE COLD CORE DIVES DOWN INTO
THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY...EXPECT SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLY
MOVING INTO THE NE TOMORROW BUT MOST OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
REMAIN OFF FURTHER E. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE LOW/MID
70S AS CAA AND COLDER LOW LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN. HOWEVER...MIXING WILL
STILL BE EFFICIENT AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW BUT PROBABLY
NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING
SOMEWHAT.

EXPECT THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS WILL HELP THE UPPER TROUGH TO PROPAGATE TO THE E/NE OVER THE E
COAST AND 1019MB SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING
THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE STRETCH WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S TOMORROW NIGHT. THESE ARE SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WE CAN EXPECT LOW LEVEL TEMPS TO WARM FRIDAY...BRINGING HIGHS MUCH
CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS INTO
THE GULF...LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL SLOWLY RETURN AND LOWS WILL BE
WARMER IN THE LOW 50S IN THE E TO MID/UPPER 50S IN THE W. RELEVANT
PORTION OF THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

WE WILL START WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
PLAINS WITH TWO MID-UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE EAST AND WEST CONUS.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN US WILL
MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE MS VALLEY AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
OPENS UP AND BECOMES PHASED WITH THE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER OVER THE
REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS WE START TO GET SOME RETURN
LOW LEVEL FLOW. OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL COME BACK FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL SEND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SOME CONVECTION. MODELS OPEN UP THE CLOSED LOW TOWARD THE UPPER MS
VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOOKING INTO THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
DURING THE PERIOD. WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR
SAT-MON. DAILY HIGHS BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON SAT-
MON...THEN LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY. DAILY LOWS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVER
THE WEEKEND. IT WILL RISE TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH RETURN FLOW. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT TAF
SITES THROUGH TOMORROW.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR
NORTHEAST...COULD CLIP NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE IT WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MAINLY MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS...A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT KGTR
THIS EVENING. BREEZY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...BECOMING 3-5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       52  72  48  77 /   7   1   0   0
MERIDIAN      50  71  47  76 /  13   2   0   0
VICKSBURG     52  73  49  78 /   2   1   0   0
HATTIESBURG   55  74  49  77 /   4   1   0   0
NATCHEZ       54  73  49  77 /   2   1   0   0
GREENVILLE    53  70  50  75 /   3   1   0   0
GREENWOOD     50  71  48  75 /   7   1   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/17/19



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