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000
FXUS64 KJAN 242008
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
BOUNDARY IS STILL DROPPING SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS ANTICIPATED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. WITH WEAK 850MB FLOW...INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL NOT BE MOVING
QUICKLY. NOT EXPECTING ANYMORE WATERSPOUTS TODAY SO HOPEFULLY NO MORE
WILL APPEAR AFTER I SEND OUT THE DISCUSSION TODAY. STORMS WILL BEGIN
WANING AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE
DISSIPATED ALTOGETHER BY MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED PATCHY FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. EXPANDS EASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. MAINLY ONLY THE DELTA WILL GET TO ENJOY THE
DRIER AIR BUT THAT WILL ALSO BE THE AREA WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE THE
HOTTER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. NOW THAT SAID...I DID GENERALLY
GO WITH GFS MOS TEMPS BUT DID KNOCK DOWN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY A DEGREE
OR TWO DUE TO THE TREND OF TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET EVEN TO THE MID
90S. THE DRIER AIR WILL BE HORT-LIVED THOUGH AS THE SURFACE FLOW
ROTATES TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND AN INCREASE TO HUMIDITY WILL CAUSE HEAT INDICES IN THE
AFTERNOON TO REACH NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. /10/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

A MID LEVEL TROF WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY
WHICH WILL FORCE THE RIDGE BACK TO THE WEST AND ALLOW A SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL HANG UP
ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS IN
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THUS...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPERTURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AND THEN TREND BELOW NORMAL BY MID WEEK. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDS HAVE IMPROVED SINCE THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY VFR/MVFR CONDS ARE
PSBL BETWEEN 18-23Z AT MOST TAF SITES DUE TO TSRA...WITH LESS CHANCE
AT KGLH/KGWO. WINDS AT MOST TAF SITES ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE
NW/N AROUND 5-10 KT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARDS SW/W AT KHBG/KMEI.
EXPECT MIX OF SOME FOG AND LOWER VIS/MVFR CONDS PSBL BETWEEN
25/08-12Z AT KGWO/KGTR/KHBG/KMEI...WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS PSBL AT
KGWO/KGTR AFTER 25/08Z. SOME LOWER STRATUS IS PSBL AT KHBG AFTER
25/10Z. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       67  93  71  94 /  15  10   5   6
MERIDIAN      66  92  69  94 /  14  12   5   5
VICKSBURG     64  93  68  94 /  12   9   5   5
HATTIESBURG   71  93  73  94 /  20  29  11  18
NATCHEZ       68  91  71  92 /  15  19   6  14
GREENVILLE    63  90  68  95 /   4   3   5   5
GREENWOOD     60  90  66  95 /   5   3   5   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/10/SW/DC/