Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 251512
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A BROAD MEAN RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WARMING ALOFT WILL HELP TEMPS TO REACH HIGHS
IN THE 82-84 RANGE WHICH WILL BE 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WILL GET SOME PATCHY STRATOCU
CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL STAY WITH
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS./17/

./UPDATE...405 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH
AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THIS
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AND CAUSE OUR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS WILL SUNNY
SKIES. PW`S WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THOUGH AS SOME LEFT OVER UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF
DRYNESS THIS MOISTURE WILL NOT AMOUNT TO ANY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER
OR ANYTHING...JUST SOME POSSIBLE HIGH CIRRUS...BEFORE IT FIZZLES OUT.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS MORE DIRECTLY OVER OUR
AREA.

THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY STRAIGHT-FORWARD. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FROM EAST TO WEST RESPECTIVELY WITH THE
LOCATIONS ACHIEVING HIGHER TEMPS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
HIGH. LOWS WILL ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL...IN THE MID 50S. MUCH OF THE
SAME FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE MID 80S AND THEN
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S GOING INTO MONDAY. NORMAL TEMPS THIS
TIME OF YEAR INCLUDE HIGHS IN MID 70S WITH LOWS NEAR 50. /10/

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE TROF OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE CWA WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL SW FLOW AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEA BOARD.

MAJORITY OF ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PULL ACROSS THE
MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...BUT TRAILING END OF COLD FRONT DOES LOOK AS
THOUGH IT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE DEEP
LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH
PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY.

GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
BUT THEY DIFFER FROM HERE FORWARD. ECMWF WANTS TO RAPIDLY MOVE THE
PRECIP OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT SEEMINGLY COMES
FROM NOWHERE. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH ONE MORE DAY OF CONVECTION
ALONG WASHING OUT BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY.

PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CONUS FOR FRIDAY AS LARGE SYSTEM DIGS
OVER THE OH VALLEY WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. MID/UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW
A LARGE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA GIVING
THE AREA A RETURN OF COOL/DRY AIR./26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. PATCHY AREAS
OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CATEGORY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED.
/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       82  53  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      80  51  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     83  52  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   83  52  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       81  54  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    84  58  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     82  56  86  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/EC/10/26








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