Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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603
FXUS64 KJAN 232338
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
638 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditons will prevail for the remainder of the evening. MVFR
ceilings will develop after 24/08Z and continue through the end of
the period for most TAF sites. Winds will be out of the
south/southeast around 15kts with some gusts as high as 25-30kts,
especially in the Delta tomorrow. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Friday...Visible satellite imagery this afternoon was
showing generally clear skies as low level inversion has put a
lid on any substantial mixing. Mid level ridge over the forecast
area at the moment will move east overnight with a return to
southwest flow/warm advection in advance of developing storm
system over the southwestern US. Meanwhile at the surface, high
pressure center remains anchored over the eastern seaboard with
southerly flow and a steady increase of moisture over the region
from the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient will tighten
tonight as western storm system moves closer. This will draw
deeper moisture into the area with low cloud development spreading
over the area after midnight.

Believe low clouds will remain over the area through the morning,
but sufficient breaks in the cloud cover during the afternoon will
help max temps approach 80. For most of the day, the low level
capping inversion will prevent convective development. However, by
late afternoon better forincg in the west and deeper moisture in the
south should be as such for some isolated storms to develop. The
better storm development will arrive overnight with the better
forcing. /26/

Friday night through next Wednesday...A pretty active period of
weather takes shape across the forecast area, beginning late Friday
night.  A stout closed low swinging east out of the plains and into
the Mid-Mississippi River Valley, will send a cold front into and
through the forecast area late Friday night into Saturday evening.
An ongoing line of storms ahead of the front over the ArkLaTex
Friday evening, looks to arrive on the western doorstep of the CWA
between 11 PM Friday and 1 AM Saturday.  While it appears some
severe parameters will be waning during this time, and the line of
storms itself following the same weakening trend, it does appear
that parameters are just adequate enough that a few storms could be
severe over locations generally west of the Interstate 55 corridor
through early Saturday morning. Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary concern with these storms, but quarter-sized hail and even a
brief tornado can`t be ruled out as there will be some deep-layer
shear present over the CWA during this time.

During the day Saturday, a boundary associated with the aforementioned
line of storms, looks to hang over the eastern half of the CWA.
With the front still lagging behind, the onset of daytime heating
and a moist and unstable atmosphere, will again result in storms
breaking our across the region in the vicinity of both the
boundary over East and Southeast Mississippi and the approaching
cold front over Central Mississippi Saturday afternoon. Again,
some of these storms could be severe and capable of producing
damaging wind gusts and quarter-sized hail. As stated above, the
better potential for such storms during the Saturday afternoon and
early evening period looks to reside over areas mainly east of
the Mississippi River.

The front will shift east and out of the CWA Saturday evening, with
storms coming to an end over the region.  However, some light shower
activity could linger for a bit overnight, primarily over East
Mississippi, as the mid/upper level trough continues to pivot
northeast and out of the region. With ridging aloft quickly building
east into the Lower Mississippi River Valley, a lull in activity is
currently expected Sunday into Sunday night.

As we begin the new work week on Monday, yet another bout of storms
are expected across the CWA as yet another disturbance races east
northeast across the region.  This combined with the continued warm,
moist, and now very unstable atmosphere as a result of some very
cold temperatures aloft, looks to result in yet another (and perhaps
more substantial) potential for severe thunderstorms across portions
of the CWA.  Although the best potential for these severe storms
currently looks to reside along and north of the Interstate 20
corridor, given that this is still four days out and based upon
future model analysis, it`s likely that this "threat area" will be
adjusted as we draw closer to Monday.  Damaging winds and large hail
will be the primary threats with any storms that develop Monday
afternoon and evening.

High pressure will build into the region through mid-week.  This
currently looks to result in a quiet period of weather both Tuesday
and Wednesday. Some slightly cooler drier condition will also
exist during the time. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       62  80  64  79 /   5  13  66  69
Meridian      60  78  60  77 /   5   9  28  75
Vicksburg     63  83  64  78 /   5  15  83  62
Hattiesburg   62  79  63  80 /   9  21  32  75
Natchez       65  81  65  80 /   7  18  81  59
Greenville    62  80  62  76 /   6  13  88  65
Greenwood     63  79  63  77 /   4  10  78  69

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

28



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