Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 250911
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
411 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) EXPECTING A RATHER
ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS AND SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.

LATEST VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY SHOWED THE MAIN UPPER BROAD TROUGH
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH MEAN UPPER RIDGING NOTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WAS ROTATING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WE WERE ON THE DEEP
INFLOW REGION. SO FAR IN THE PAST FEW DAYS THE MEAN RIDGE HEIGHTS
HAS BE DEFLECTING OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
COMBINE WITH STRONG NORTHWARD MOVEMENTS OF THE STORMS. AREA RADARS
CONTINUED TO PICK OF SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO PICK UP DEEP GULF
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES...WHICH WAS
RESULTING IN VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL MODE ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. MODEL AND 00Z SNDGS WERE SHOWING SOME IMPRESSIVE FLOW INT
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FOR LATE MAY ESP WEST OF THE REGION.

FOR TODAY THE SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE REGION OVERNIGHT HAS PULLED
AWAY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS OF EARLY TODAY. SO WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH GOOD PWATS CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY FOR
TODAY GOING INTO TONIGHT. HIRES MODELS SHOWS THAT AFTER THIS MORNING
THAT WE WILL NOT GET MUCH COVERAGE BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM AS THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE A BREATHER. BY 3 MID DAYTIME HEATING WILL KICK
IN AS CONVECTION BUILDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH TOWARD THE EVENING
HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS/MS VALLEY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE ACROSS THE DELTA...WHERE THE BEST OVERLAY OF
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND HELICITY IS PROGGED. 0-3 KM SHEAR WILL
BE AROUND 40 KNOTS IN THAT REGION. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SEVERE
LIMITED RISK FOR THE WEST HALF FOR TONIGHT. HIRES MODELS SHOWS A
PRETTY GOOD LINEAR MCS MOVING INTO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING AND
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE EAST DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING. AS
WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY WITH BETTER DEEP SHEAR AND FORCING SPREADS EAST
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIRES MODELS ALSO SHOWS A GOOD LINEAR
MCS CROSSING THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL HOLD TOGETHER
BETTER. WILL KEEP THE PRIMARY RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND A
TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

AS FAR AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM. WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PWATS IT WILL BE A
CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN THAT HIGH
WITH SOME LOCALIZED 4 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST MADISON...NORTH HINDS
AND LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. SO WITH THIS IN MIND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND LET THE DAY SHIFT REVISIT THE MATTER...ESP
WITH CONVECTION BEING A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. FOR
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IF THINGS DO COME TOGETHER MAY HAVE TO
LOOK AT A FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THAT PERIOD. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
GRAPHICS FOR THAT PERIOD FOR NOW./17/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA WHERE PWS WILL BE BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF. PWS AROUND AN INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS WILL RESIDE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES MAINTAINING A WARM MOIST
FEED FROM THE GULF. A MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
OUR CWA DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND LEAD TO A DECENT COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY BUT MODELS SUGGEST VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 29 AND DCAPE AROUND
1200J/KG OVER OUR DELTA REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WHERE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT RIDGING ALOFT
WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. BY SATURDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS IS A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC...BUT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS POPS
WILL INCREASE GOING INTO SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER. THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA MONDAY EVENING.
NORMAL LOWS RUN IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO 87F. DUE
TO MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED AND SOME STORMS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT COVERAGE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE
FREQUENCY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIAL HAZARDS FOR VFR
TRAFFIC./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       82  71  81  69 /  66  70  84  50
MERIDIAN      80  69  80  69 /  68  52  81  57
VICKSBURG     84  71  81  70 /  62  86  84  41
HATTIESBURG   81  71  82  70 /  70  55  75  53
NATCHEZ       84  72  81  70 /  66  83  83  41
GREENVILLE    83  71  80  69 /  69  90  84  39
GREENWOOD     83  70  79  68 /  68  82  87  48

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/22/17



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