Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 310853
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE DRIER AIR
AND LOWER RH VALUES. WHILE LESS HUMIDITY WILL BE WELCOME...THIS MAY
HAVE AN IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (MORE ON THAT BELOW).

DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE AREA AS OF 3AM. SFC DEWPTS
IN THE MID/LOWER 60S EXIST AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S
FOR SOME LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS AND HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH 91-
95 RANGE. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
AND PWATS WILL RUN 1.0 TO 1.3 TODAY AND TREND TO 0.75 TO 1.0 TONIGHT
INTO SAT NIGHT. THAT IS SUBSTANTIALLY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
THE RESULT WILL BE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS INTO THE
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MOST AFFECTED FROM THE DRY AIR AND
LOOKS TO YIELD MID/UPPER 60S FOR LOW TEMPS THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS.
ADDITIONALLY...AS WE WARM TODAY...LOOK FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS FROM THE
NNE AND LIKELY PEAKING NEAR 20-25 MPH.

WITH THE DRIER AIR AND LOWISH RH VALUES (30-40%)...THE FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. COMBINE THAT WITH THE LACK OF PRECIP OVER
THE PAST 3 WEEKS...SOME BURN BANS IN EFFECT AND INCREASED WINDS
TODAY...WILL INTRODUCE A LIMITED THREAT TO BRING ATTENTION TO THIS
RISK AND MENTION BURNING IS DISCOURAGED. /CME/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
CHARACTERIZED BY RIDGING IN THE WESTERN US AND A GENERAL TROFFINESS
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NATION. IN THE
LOWER LEVEL...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S.

SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AND BEGIN TAPPING INTO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AS LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS MOVE BACK IN. TUESDAY WILL HAVE
SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH ISOLATED STORMS IN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OCCURRING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN MONDAY.

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN
THE 70S OVERSPREADING THE REGION...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING
SE IN THE NW FLOW WILL KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED DURING MAX HEATING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS CONVECTION WILL SERVE TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS AS
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 70S FOR THURSDAY. THIS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WELL FOR AIRMASS TYPE
CONVECTION AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST IN
PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE./26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY NNE WINDS TODAY. LOOK FOR GUSTS TO PEAK
BETWEEN 18-25KTS. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  68  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      92  64  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     93  66  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   95  69  95  69 /   8   5   4   4
NATCHEZ       92  67  93  68 /   1   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    92  67  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     92  66  93  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

CME/26/



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