Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 292108
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
408 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS HAS RESULTED
IN NEAR -4 TO -5 SD BELOW NORMAL PWATS COMBINING WITH NEAR -2 SD
BELOW NORMAL 925MB TEMPS OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A COOL NIGHT AHEAD THAT WILL RIVAL RECORD LOWS SET BACK IN 1897.
IT WILL BE REALLY CLOSE GIVEN CALM WINDS AND FACTORS LISTED ABOVE BUT
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS COULD STREAK IN 4-7AM ACROSS NW DELTA TOWARDS KJAN
THAT MAY INFLUENCE TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO. HOWEVER, STILL
FORECASTING AT OR JUST BELOW RECORD LOWS FOR SEVERAL OFFICIAL
OBSERVATION SITES. SEE GRAPHIC ON OUR HOMEPAGE FOR MORE INFO.

WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE 5-10F BELOW NORMAL AS MORE HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS FILTER ACROSS REGION IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S SOUTH WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THIS WILL CHANGE GOING INTO THURSDAY AS A
PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE OVER TEXAS WILL INFILTRATE EAST OVER REGION
AHEAD OF AN EMBEDDED S/WV TROUGH. WITH INCREASED LIFT AND MOISTURE,
LIGHT SHOWERS COULD START IN LA/AR AS EARLY AS THURSDAY MORNING AND
THEN SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH MS THROUGH THURS AFTN.
MEAGER LAPSE RATES, POSITIVE SHOWALTERS, POSITIVE LI/S WITH LIMITED
TO NO INSTABILITY PROGGED FOR THIS PERIOD INDICATES ONLY SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND HAVE OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE ANY THUNDER MENTION. OVERALL
SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT SOME MAY
LINGER WITH A SECONDARY EMBEDDED S/WV PIVOTING THROUGH. /ALLEN/

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION
FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS
AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE LEAD WAVE WILL PULL EAST OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE... INSTABILITY AND MORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME FOR RAINFALL WILL RETURN TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY
THIS WEEKEND. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...QUIET CONDITIONS FOR 95 PERCENT OF THE TAF PERIOD AS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. THE ONLY ISSUES THAT MAY ARISE WILL BE IN
THE MORNING WHERE SOME MVFR VIS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
10-13Z. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  87  64  85 /   0   2  10  36
MERIDIAN      58  86  61  87 /   0   0  10  31
VICKSBURG     59  87  64  85 /   0   5  15  47
HATTIESBURG   62  88  64  90 /   0   0   4  25
NATCHEZ       61  86  64  87 /   0   7   9  28
GREENVILLE    62  85  66  79 /   0  10  24  58
GREENWOOD     59  85  62  79 /   0   5  16  51

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/SW/CME




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