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142
FXUS64 KJAN 242116
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
416 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight through Tuesday morning...

Overall a very hot and humid conditions are due to an upper ridge
parked over the mid-Mississippi Valley. Very anomalous 850mb and
925mb temps near 19 deg C plus are keeping the region in the mid 90s,
with some areas that have been drier in the east approaching the
upper 90s to century mark. Some isolated showers are ongoing across
the region in the warm and humid airmass, with some increasing lift
and shower development in east Mississippi due to the upper low over
the western Florida Panhandle. The upper high will flatten somewhat
tomorrow while the upper low will weaken and move into the northern
Gulf. However, continued anomalous boundary layer temps will help
keep very warm conditions around, with areas still some 10-15 degrees
above normal. Can`t rule out again some areas approaching the upper
90s in the north east. Some isolated showers and storms are again
possible in central and south-southeastern areas, aided by the weak
lift from southward drifting upper low. Expect lows to be warm and
humid in the upper 60s to low 70s.

A big change and final first feel of fall looks in store as we go
into the work week as a significant cold front will have moved
through the central Plains and through our area. Global models
including the GFS, Euro and Canadian, all show the large longwave
trough moving into the northern Plains by Sunday and a portion of the
energy cutting off in the desert southwest. The best lift and ~997mb
low will move through the northern Plains and into southern Canada
and Great Lakes region and drag the cold front towards our area by
Monday. This will bring rain chances in our northwest Delta just
after midnight Monday with the best rain chances in the afternoon on
Monday. Due to increasing clouds and chances of some showers and
isolated storms, highs will be cooler in the upper 80s in the
northwest to low to possibly mid 90s in the east. It does not look to
be much of a rain producer or much in the way of any stronger storms
as the best lift and shear looks to remain to our north. However, the
trough will dig down helping to drive the driest airmass we have felt
in awhile. Dewpoints in our north will fall into the upper 50s by
late Monday afternoon to low 50s in the north to upper 50s to low 60s
in the south by Tuesday morning. This will help lows to fall to near
normal,into the upper 50s to low 60s, by Tuesday morning and rain
chances gradually moving out from the southeast along the front. /DC/

.LONG TERM...

Tuesday through Friday...

By Tuesday, the front will have moved through the region and brought
much more significant drier air in the wake of the first significant
cold frontal passage. This will first significant cold front will
help suppress the heat and help it feel like fall with much drier
conditions and highs only in the low to mid 80s through most of the
week. Rain chances will be suppressed as PW`s will fall to near or
less than an inch. Dewpoints will fall into the mid-upper 50s by
Tuesday morning, with some mid 40s dewpoints surging in from the
north by Tuesday afternoon in the northern half of the area and
areawide by Wednesday. Lows will also fall to low to mid 50s
areawide, which is some 5-7 degrees below normal. The front looks to
not bring significant rainfall and there could be some fire weather
issues around Tuesday to Wednesday with such dry conditions. It`s too
far out in the HWO but will likely need to be addressed as we get
closer. The models diverge at the later part of the week as the Euro
takes the upper trough and spins it down into the southeast US. The
GFS and Canadian takes the northern stream trough and pushes it to
the eastern Sea Board by Thursday into Friday. Both models bring
upper ridging back to the region for Thursday into Friday, while the
European model keeps the CWA on the back side of the upper
trough,which would keep cooler temps over the CWA. For right now will
follow the more progressive GFS/ensembles and Canadian solution.
/DC/17/

&&

.AVIATION...An isold TSRA was noted in vcty of MEI at 1930Z with an
SHRA in vcty of GLH. An isold SHRA/TSRA may come in vcty of a TAF
site until 23Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail areawide
through the period. /22/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  95  71  91 /  14  19  13  27
Meridian      69  97  69  93 /   9  13  11  23
Vicksburg     70  95  70  91 /  14  17  15  27
Hattiesburg   71  93  71  92 /  14  22  16  21
Natchez       70  91  69  89 /  14  18  18  28
Greenville    71  97  71  86 /  13  15  18  26
Greenwood     69  96  69  88 /   9  12  14  26

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/17/22