Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 010842
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
342 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY (MOSTLY CONFINED TO SW/S AREAS). SLIGHTLY
GREATER COVERAGE IN ACTIVITY AND AREA ON EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

BEGINNINGS OF LOW STRATUS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 3AM
ALONG HWY 98 CORRIDOR AND EXPECT IT TO EXPAND OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL
AREAS THROUGH 8-9AM. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THAT SAME TIME FRAME BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE DENSE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WILL MIX OUT THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN
EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN. DRIER AIR IN THE H925 TO H7 LAYER AS EVIDENT
WITH 00Z KJAN RAOB OF 1.56" WILL PIVOT NORTH AND ALLOW FOR NEAR 2"
PWATS TO SHIFT INTO SW/S/CENTRAL AREAS FROM THE GULF. THE ADDED
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SFC BASED INSTABILITY ABOVE 2000
J/KG IN SW/W/CENTRAL AREAS SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TAME AND DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY FEATURE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS FOR
SRN AREAS WITH MOIST S/SE LOW-LVL FLOW AS WEAK H85-H5 RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER SE CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME FLATTENED INTO
TUESDAY AFTN AS A S/WV TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND PUSHES A BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH. THE ARKLAMISS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED
WITH SUBTLE WAVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD HELP ENHANCE INSTABILITY
DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND POTENCY. FEEL GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL STILL BE IN SW/W AREAS NEAR MS RIVER DURING THE AFTN
BUT SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT INTO NORTH AREAS LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /ALLEN/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD IN THAT PATTERN OVER THE LOWER
CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY FLAT RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYERED RIDGE.
AS MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NORTH MS...FLOW
OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AND AFFECTED BY ANY WAVES MOVING
ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AS WELL
SERVING TO KEEP MOISTURE PLENTIFUL WITH PW/S REMAINING AROUND 2
INCHES.

HARD TO FIND ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES IN THE FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD.
WHILE THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO BENEFIT MOST FROM THE WARMING FROM
THE RIDGE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOL (NEAR -10C AT
H5) ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID 20S. BELIEVE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DOMINATE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE SOUTH. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH...BUT WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT ITS NORTHWARD EXTENT EACH DAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DIP INTO NORTHERN MS ON SUNDAY
SERVING TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTH BY THAT
TIME./26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR PREVAIL THIS MORNING BUT MVFR TO IFR CONDS COULD
DEVELOP QUICKLY AS LOW STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOP THROUGH 14Z IN
PROXIMITY TO SOUTH AND CENTRAL SITES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SAME TIME FRAME BUT BOTH VIS/CIGS WILL IMPROVE MID
MORNING BACK TO VFR. ISO TSRA LIKELY FOR NEAR KHEZ BUT VERY LIMITED
FOR OTHER SITES NOT TO EVEN MENTION VCTS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE
S/SE AT 10 KT OR LESS AND CALMER OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH CIG RESTRICTIONS
ONCE AGAIN. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  74  93  73 /  18  11  22  14
MERIDIAN      94  72  94  72 /  13   9  20  14
VICKSBURG     93  74  93  72 /  21  13  28  16
HATTIESBURG   94  75  94  74 /  26  12  31  17
NATCHEZ       91  74  92  73 /  32  16  35  21
GREENVILLE    93  74  93  74 /   7   9  20  14
GREENWOOD     93  73  93  73 /   6   9  21  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/26




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