Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
FXUS64 KJAN 260948
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
448 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016
.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...Predawn water
vapor imagery and model analysis showed the circulation around a
595dkm high centered over the western half of our cwa. Latest
predawn surface analysis showed a 1018 mb ridge axis over the
cwa. Predawn temps were in the middle to upper 70s.
Little change is expected Today before the mid level ridge breaks
down Monday. Afternoon temperatures Today will be one to degrees
warmer than on Saturday. This will put heat index values close to
105 at portions of the cwa. Thus will continue to mention the
limited risk in the HWO for this afternoon. Hi-res models shows
isolated showers int he east and west...before the isolated
convection develops over the region during the afternoon.
Monday will feature a change in the weather pattern as the mid level
high weakens and mid level troughing develops over the eastern CONUS.
This will translate into greater rain chances for our cwa during the
afternoon and early evening hours. Afternoon highs will be back into
the lower to mid 90s over areas that don`t experience an early storm
and dew points may hold higher resulting in peak heat index values
near 105 again./17/
.Long Term...Tuesday through Saturday. Wet pattern continues for
much next week. Still looking for the cold front to slow sink south
through the region from Tuesday through Thursday. Although the area
will have northwest flow...for now any disturbances out of the
plains seem to fall apart before reaching the cwa. However model
soundings show good lapse rates and a couple days had a good
microburst signature...at least on the JAN forecast sounding. Will
leave any mention of severe out of the long term portions of the HWO
at this time...but could see the potential for a few severe storms
around mid week.
The boundary moves down to the coast but lingers into the weekend.
As the upper trough moves into the northeast...the boundary starts
to move east also. Good rain chances will go into the weekend. The
next front drops into the area around Saturday...with a couple short
waves moving along it. Model pops were good...so did not stray from
guidance. Temperatures were also ok through the forecast period.
Rain will bring a break from the high temperatures and potential
heat stress next week with highs around 90 most days.
.AVIATION...Expect primarily VFR conditions over the next 24 hours
although a patch or two of MVFR vis or ceiling restriction cannot be
entirely ruled out around daybreak through 9 AM today. Winds will be
quite light and variable, even during the daytime. Expect a few
thunderstorms to pop up tomorrow afternoon but chances of impacting
a TAF site are too low to include any mention in the official
aviation forecast. /17/BB/
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 96 76 94 75 / 22 15 42 46
Meridian 97 74 94 74 / 21 27 41 42
Vicksburg 97 76 94 74 / 21 8 41 42
Hattiesburg 97 75 95 75 / 20 25 41 43
Natchez 97 76 92 74 / 22 12 43 42
Greenville 97 78 94 76 / 22 19 43 43
Greenwood 97 76 93 74 / 22 12 43 43