Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 282057
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
357 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY INTO EARLY EVENING.
MORNING MICROBURST ANALYSIS INDICATED POOR INSTABILITY AND LAPSE
RATES SO THESE SHOULD JUST PRODUCE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND MAYBE
SOME LIGHTNING(MOST OF THESE ARE NOT SHOWING LIGHTNING). THESE WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE REST OF
THIS EVENING WILL BE QUIET.

THE REGION IS SITUATED BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE EAST OVER THE COASTAL
STATES AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THROUGH THE COURSE OF FRIDAY
AND ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE TO
THE REGION. PW VALUES BY SATURDAY WILL BE REACHING 2
INCHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WHILE THE REGION WILL SEE
SOME STORMS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR STORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL COME AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS INTO THE AREA BUT ALSO MODELS SHOW A MORE SUBTLE DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THIS MOISTURE PLUME THAT SHOULD ENHANCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP.
WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2-2.2 INCHES ON SATURDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE A CONCERN WITH 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
HIGHER AND HAVE ADDED THIS LOCATION AS A LIMITED RISK IN THE HWO AND
GRAPHICS. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...IT ISNT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY AS SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT TOO BAD BUT INSTABILITY
IS QUESTIONABLE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION RIGHT NOW BUT MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED IN LATER FORECASTS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL
BE HELD IN CHECK THANKS TO PRECIP AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION. I ACTUALLY CUT TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST A
LITTLE BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION. /28/

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE WORK WEEK...THE PATTERN WILL
ADJUST AND MORE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO TAPER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO MORE OF A
20-30% VARIETY WITH TIMING MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WILL WARM AND
MAKE A RUN INTO MORE OF THE LOWER/MID 90S. /CME/


&&

.AVIATION...WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST SITES THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
HBG/PIB AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
CEILINGS TODAY SHOULD BE AT OR GREATER THAN 5 KFT. SOME FOG OR LOW
CLOUDS COULD BRIEFLY BRING FLIGHT CATS INTO THE MVFR RANGE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. CHANCES FOR
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY FROM
THE SOUTH BY EARLY SATURDAY. /BB/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  95  73  89 /   7  14  36  68
MERIDIAN      66  95  72  90 /   6   7  35  59
VICKSBURG     69  95  73  86 /   9  18  36  69
HATTIESBURG   71  95  75  90 /   6  41  36  62
NATCHEZ       71  93  73  85 /   8  35  38  69
GREENVILLE    71  95  72  84 /   5  17  32  69
GREENWOOD     68  96  73  85 /   4  12  33  69

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/CME/BB




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