Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 031511 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1011 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR CWA IN THE WAKE
OF A SHORTWAVE THAT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS HAS HELPED
DISSIPATE MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WERE ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT HAVE REMOVED POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR THIS MORNING.
EXPECT GREATER INSOLATION TODAY THAN WE SAW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER OUR NORTHWEST HALF. /22/

&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID
CLOUD LEVELS ARE AROUND 12KFT AND SHOULD POSE NO PROBLEMS TO
AVIATION INTERESTS. ANY SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS. /SW/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT DEPARTS THE REGION TODAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME WEDGED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME...MOISTURE ALOFT LIFTING NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM
A WEAKENING MID/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...COMBINING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 90S TODAY AND
FRIDAY...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND FRIDAY. CONVECTION BOTH DAYS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE HEADING TOWARD SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL TO AROUND 70 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. /19/

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE QUITE
AMPLIFIED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH RIDGE...CENTERED OVER
TX...EXTENDING WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
PUT THE CWA IN LIGHT MID/UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...SPRAWLING SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NE US
WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING A RELATIVELY
DRY AIRMASS WITH 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA.

MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY EACH DAY AS WARM TEMPS ALOFT KEEP CAPES AND LAPSE RATES
DOWN...BUT STILL ENOUGH AROUND FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TYPE CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON MAXES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH MINS
AT NIGHT AROUND 70. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       95  71  95  72 /  19  14  19  13
MERIDIAN      93  70  94  70 /  20  12  18  13
VICKSBURG     95  70  95  71 /  14  12  19  13
HATTIESBURG   93  71  94  71 /  30  17  26  14
NATCHEZ       92  71  92  71 /  28  15  24  14
GREENVILLE    95  71  96  72 /  11   8  12   8
GREENWOOD     94  70  95  71 /  10   6  10   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN/JAN


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