Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 181827
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
127 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Weather conditions will remain quiet for the short term period with
no major modifications made to the overall forecast. Global
guidance highlights a 1030mb sfc high across the ArkLaMiss region
tonight which will help suppress any low-level moisture from the
Gulf Coast. With light northerly flow, strong radiational cooling
of our cool dry airmass will allow for overnight temperatures to
drop in the upper 20s in the northeast. Elsewhere, nighttime
temperatures will fall into the lower 30s. This will lead to
widespread frost development across our entire CWA along with
several hours of temperatures below freezing. The combination of
frost and freezing temperatures will likely kill unprotected
sensitive vegetation. Given these conditions for tonight, the
Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9AM Tuesday morning.
Heading into tomorrow, weather conditions will remain quiet as the
sfc high slowly shifts east across the ArkLaMiss region.
Sufficient daytime heating combined with the lack of cloud cover
will help afternoon temperatures peak into the upper 50s mainly
for areas north of I-20. Areas south of I-20 will see daytime
highs in the low 60s. /CR/

Tuesday night through Sunday night...A pretty quiet weather
pattern is in store for the ArkLaMs in the long term. Strong high
pressure will be over the region Tuesday night, with slightly warmer
lows in the mid 30s to near 40. High pressure will continue to
prevail on Wednesday, with highs around 70 degrees for most of the
area. A short wave and associated cold front will approach the area
on Thursday and move across the area Thursday through Thursday
night. Currently the global models struggle with moisture with this
system (especially the ECMWF), with the best moisture over the
northern gulf. Both the GFS/ECMWF develop convection over the
northern gulf and limit moisture return during this period. There
could still be some isolated to scattered storms across the area,
but with limited instability, expect any storms that do develop to
remain below severe limits. Will have to continue to monitor this
system, as it is still a few days away and the models may change.

The front will move east of the area early on Friday and high
pressure will build in behind it. A very nice weekend is on tap for
the area under strong high pressure, with highs on Saturday in the
upper 60s to low 70s, climbing into the mid/upper 70s on Sunday./15/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Gusty nw-n winds of 20-25 kts will continue through the afternoon
before subsiding around 00Z Tuesday afternoon. Winds will remain
somewhat northerly through 10Z Tuesday before shifting to the
southwest by 15Z Tuesday morning. Widespread frost could cause a
few issues through 13Z Tuesday as temperatures will fall below
freezing across central Mississippi. Otherwise, quiet conditions
will occur through the TAF period with VFR conditions prevailing.
/CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       31  60  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      28  61  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     31  60  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   32  62  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       32  61  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    32  59  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     29  58  41  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

CR/15/CR


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