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000
FXUS64 KJAN 192058
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE AND A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ARKLAMISS THIS WEEKEND. FOR TONIGHT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LESS FOG POTENTIAL THAN LAST NIGHT AS
LOWS ARE NOT FORECAST TO DROP BELOW CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES - CURRENTLY
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SUNDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT GENERALLY IN THE NORMAL
RANGE FOR MID APRIL. INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY SIGNFICANT RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF
UNTIL MONDAY. LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST
AND THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW. /EC/

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK...

THE BOTTOM END OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO TRANSLATE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH SHOULD BE HIGHEST NORTH OF I-20. MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD DROP
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS...WITH THE MAIN CHANCES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING GRADUALLY FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. MANY ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE FROM A
LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY STANDPOINT...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH OF THESE INGREDIENTS TO CONSOLIDATE SOME SORT OF THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER WHICH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST HALF OF ZONES TUESDAY. THE
BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE OFF TO THE WEST OF WHERE CONVECTION
OCCURS LEAVING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FEEDING STORMS TO NOT BE WORTHY
OF MUCH SEVERE WEATHER RISK. MAIN LOW LEVEL FORCING LAGGING BEHIND
(ESSENTIALLY OUT OF PHASE WITH) UPPER TROUGH GIVES CONFIDENCE
CONVECTION WILL NOT OVERACHIEVE. AT THIS TIME ANY LOW RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO NE AND EAST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF MS. THIS LOW-END RISK DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE HWO...EVEN TAKING SOMEWHAT PRIMED ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS INTO ACCOUNT.

INCLEMENT WEATHER SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPS SEASONABLY COOL BY DAWN WEDNESDAY. THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK CONDITIONS WILL BE DECIDEDLY SPRING-LIKE WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80
AND LOWS MAINLY AROUND 60. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A DECENT PROSPECT
FOR THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
AT LEAST NORTHERN ZONES BY NEXT FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN MODEL IS TRYING TO KEEP ASSOCIATED ENERGY AND
LIFT OF THIS SYSTEM CONFINED WELL TO THE NORTH AND THEREFORE
STRUGGLING TO EVEN GET A FRONT THIS FAR SOUTH. WITH THAT IN MIND I
SLANTED HOMOGENEOUS AREA MEX POPS TOWARD NORTHERN ZONES. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS 3-8KT FROM THE N/NE. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST FROM 10-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RESUME AFTER 14Z WITH EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       50  78  53  80 /   0   0   7  21
MERIDIAN      46  77  50  79 /   0   0   6  16
VICKSBURG     50  80  53  79 /   0   0   7  24
HATTIESBURG   50  78  52  80 /   0   0   4  13
NATCHEZ       52  79  55  78 /   0   0   9  16
GREENVILLE    53  80  56  79 /   0   0   8  36
GREENWOOD     50  79  55  79 /   0   0   7  34

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$

EC/BB/17/