Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 191841
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1241 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through Monday. Breezy northerly winds
will diminish later this afternoon and evening. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The forecast is generally on track with cold advection continuing
under sunny skies. No significant adjustments were made to the
hourly weather elements. Much of the area will experience near or
below freezing temperatures tonight. /EC/

Prior discussion below:

Today and Tonight: Last bit of cloud cover has just about moved out
of the forecast area as of 19/09Z. Despite the dry air and efficient
radiative heat loss, tight pressure gradient has been sufficient to
keep winds up overnight. Expect winds to strengthen once again by
mid morning as mixing layer deepens. Sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph
with gusts to around 25 mph should be common, especially over the
open areas of the ArkLaMiss Delta region.

Surface ridge axis will become situated over northern portions
tonight with lessening gradient to the south. Thus, expect boundary
layer decoupling and a rapid fall off of temperatures during the
evening as winds diminish. With the dry air supporting optimum
radiational cooling, lows from the mid 20s in the northeast to the
mid 30s south look attainable./26/

Monday through Saturday night: Looks like a dry and cool extended
period for the ArkLaMiss. The surface high will slowly begin to
shift to the east on Monday with the surface flow becoming more
southerly by the late afternoon hours. Temperatures will continue
to be on the cool side, with highs in the mid 50s to around 60
degrees across the area. Temperatures Monday night will not be
quite as cold, but will still fall into the 30s.

With southerly flow and high pressure continuing, Tuesday will be a
nice day with highs in the mid/upper 60s. A deep upper trough and
associated dry cold front will move across the area Tuesday night
with cooler temps returning for Wednesday. The Global models are in
pretty good agreement of a cut-off low developing over the northern
gulf on Wednesday into Thanksgiving day, but this feature will be
well southeast of the area. Turkey day looks like it will be dry and
cool, with highs in the mid/upper 50s. The dry conditions will
continue through the end of the week with highs in the low/mid 60s
on Friday, and into the upper 60s on Saturday, before another dry
cold front swings across the area Saturday night. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       31  61  37  67 /   0   0   2   9
Meridian      30  59  36  65 /   0   0   1   6
Vicksburg     32  60  36  67 /   0   0   2  10
Hattiesburg   31  59  39  67 /   0   0   1   9
Natchez       31  61  39  66 /   0   0   2  13
Greenville    32  56  36  63 /   0   0   1   5
Greenwood     29  58  34  63 /   0   0   2   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$



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