Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 190959
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
459 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...OTHER THAN SOME HIGH- RES
MODELS...OVERALL SUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS HAVEN`T BEEN MUCH HELP WITH
RECOGNIZING WHAT`S GOING ON RIGHT NOW AND WHAT WILL TRANSPIRE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREFORE... THE
FORECAST FOR A GOOD BIT OF TODAY AT LEAST WILL BASICALLY BE A BLEND
OF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND SAID HIGH-RES MODELS.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS EXITING THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.  AS THIS IS HAPPENING...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING
OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT`S SHIFTING EAST
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF MY CWA.  BASED ON THIS
ALONE...I`VE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TODAY.  THE
THINKING IS...AND HIGH-RES MODELS AGREE...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN ACTIVITY FROM MID TO LATE MORNING.  HOWEVER...DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH THE DISTURBANCE STILL TREKING EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...WILL CAUSE CONVECTION TO AGAIN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER MY
EAST HEADING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  SOME OF THE STORMS IN MY
WEST...MAINLY THOSE ALONG THE SQUALL LINE...THIS MORNING COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.  HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER.

ONCE THIS CONVECTION EXITS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
FEW HOURS IN WHICH THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY.  LATE IN THE
DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING HOWEVER... ANOTHER...AND MORE POTENT...
PIECE OF ENERGY AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPEDING UPON
THE CWA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BE WHEN THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ENTERS THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE OVERALL SETUP FOR THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
BUT MORE SO THIS EVENING...HASN`T CHANGED MUCH.  WHILE THIS
MORNING`S ACTIVITY DOES TAKE SOME PUNCH OUT OF THE AIRMASS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A GOOD BIT OF RECOVERY
AND INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS THIS EVENING AS A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST.  A BROKEN LINE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...PERHAPS SOME IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.  HOWEVER...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE DELTA
AROUND TO JUST AFTER 7 PM THIS EVENING.  I`LL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
LAYOUT OF THE HWO THIS MORNING AS THE BETTER CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS THE DELTA WHERE SEVERE PARAMETERS LOOK MOST
FAVORABLE.  WHILE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
FURTHER EAST IT MOVES...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DOES EXIST
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

AS THE SYSTEM EXITS EAST INTO ALABAMA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
NOTICEABLY COOLER DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA ON MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  THIS LOOKS TO LEAD TO A
BRIEF DRY PERIOD OF WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES DO EXIST IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARM ADVECTION ENSUES ACROSS THE REGION.

THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT SUNDAY...WITH SUBTLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW
TRAVERSING THE REGION...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON.  BETTER RAIN CHANCES COULD
EXIST OVER NEXT WEEKEND AS A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRIES TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION AREA
THIS MORNING RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR.  THIS IS AS A RESULT OF
CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS.  WHILE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...CATEGORIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO AT LEAST MVFR BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST AGAIN THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER
THE DELTA REGION.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS...BUT AS A FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY IN ITS WAKE. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       81  61  75  49 /  49  49   6   5
MERIDIAN      81  63  76  48 /  49  48  12   5
VICKSBURG     82  58  74  49 /  58  50   5   5
HATTIESBURG   84  65  80  53 /  46  31  10   5
NATCHEZ       83  60  75  50 /  47  37   3   4
GREENVILLE    79  57  72  48 /  60  64   7   5
GREENWOOD     78  58  72  47 /  60  64  13   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.