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000
FXUS64 KJAN 060320 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
920 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN IS MOVING IN RIGHT ON TRACK TONIGHT...CURRENTLY MOVING NE FROM
LOUISIANA INTO SW MISSISSIPPI AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO
CENTRAL MS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. POPS WERE ADJUSTED TO PARRALLEL
CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
AS CLOUDS AND RAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A
MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VARYING CEILINGS
AND RAIN IMPACTING VISIBILITIES. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY EXIT FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO LATE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS...BUT INCREASE FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN
7-10 KNOTS THURSDAY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A VERY NICE DAY HAS
UNFOLDED FOR MOST OF THE REGION. CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION HAVE
SEEN QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
THE WEST HAVE SEEN A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...WE ARE STARTING
TO SEE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
FORM OF THICKER HIGH CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THICKEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE  AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OUT TO THE WEST.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL SWING ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS EAST INTO FLORIDA.
MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT INTO OUR REGION WITH PW VALUES AROUND AN
INCH BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE EXITING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL
RESUME ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TOMORROW AS CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
KEEP READINGS ON THE COOL SIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S
WITH SOME AREAS SEEING A LIGHT FREEZE. /28/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST BEGINS QUIETLY AND THEN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED AS WE GO INTO
NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURE RANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH NO MAJOR
EXTREMES.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE ARKLAMISS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BRING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER TO THE WINTER-WEARY ARKLAMISS. HAVE BLENDED THE GFS
MEX MOS GUIDANCE WITH ECMWF/GEFS MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

GOING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GENERAL IDEA
REMAINS THE SAME FROM LAST NIGHT`S FORECAST - MORE SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY DIGGING AND EVENTUALLY CUTTING OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AS
THE LOW CUTS OFF...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE
RECENT AIR MASS...IT MAY END UP BEING COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE COOLER END OF THE SPECTRUM FOR THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUIDANCE
WILL TREND COOLER AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK ALONG THE FRONT SO ONLY LIGHT
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED. THE 00Z ECMWF DOES BRING A LITTLE STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND OFFERS A SLIGHTLY WETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS/GEFS...BUT NOT BY MUCH.

THE CUT-OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO KICK OUT AND DEVELOP GULF LOW PRESSURE
WHICH COULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEASONABLE. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE NEXT
WEEK...GLOBAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON A MORE DISTINCT WESTERN
RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THAT SHOULD SUPPORT A COOLING TREND
FOR THE FORECAST AREA. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  51  38  59 /  90 100  38   0
MERIDIAN      41  53  38  60 /  65 100  63   0
VICKSBURG     42  50  36  59 /  98  83  21   0
HATTIESBURG   47  58  42  63 /  75  92  44   0
NATCHEZ       41  51  36  59 /  96  72  14   0
GREENVILLE    38  46  34  58 /  82  85  23   0
GREENWOOD     39  49  34  60 /  75 100  36   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$