Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 301544 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1044 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...A PLEASANT FALL DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION FOLLOWING
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE. 12Z KJAN SOUNDING SHOWED A DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 0.36 INCHES. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1022MB
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP SUNNY SKIES
AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 70S FOR
MANY LOCATIONS TODAY THROUGH UPPER 60S MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE WHERE MORNING TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ON THE COOLER SIDE.
GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR CURRENT
TRENDS WERE NEEDED. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 3-8
KNOTS.  THESE WILL SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. /19/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF
WEDNESDAY`S COLD FRONT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS HAS SETTLED OVER
OUR CWA. THE 00Z THU JAN SOUNDING HAD A PW OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH. THE BLENDED TOTAL PW PRODUCT SHOWS PWS LESS THAN A HALF INCH
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR DELTA REGION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD
A 1022MB RIDGE AXIS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS HAD A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE RESULTING DEEP NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
DRY CONDITIONS OVER OUR CWA TODAY. UNDER NEAR FULL INSOLATION AND
WEAK CAA AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING OF OUR DRY AIRMASS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
NIGHT OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TONIGHT A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA
AND CLOSE OFF FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THEN
DROP SOUTHEAST OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
SEND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR SOUTH TOWARD OUR
CWA. THE ASSOCIATED >1030MB CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTH
WINDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON HOLDING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF TOPS OUT NEAR
NORMAL IN THE LOWER 70S. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX FRIDAY
EVENING ALLOWING THE WIND TO DECOUPLE. NEAR IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING
THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON WITH THE FIRST OCCURRENCE OF LIGHT FROST AND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA. THE GFSMOS MORNING LOWS
FOR SATURDAY WERE AGAIN AMONG THE LOWEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE BULK
OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE EAST OF OUR CWA. OUR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY
SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE
SOUTH AND WEST. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE. SENSITIVE
VEGETATION WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL CARRY
THIS MENTION IN THE HWO. /22/

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A COOL DAY WILL BE ON TAP WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST BY
SUNDAY. EXPECT ONE MORE COLD NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
LIGHT SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND 30 DEGREES OR POSSIBLY THE UPPER 20S. THIS COULD
BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN THIS FALL THUS FAR.

EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SUNNY
SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH
STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND WARM SOUTHEAST FLOW. THINGS WILL CHANGE
ON TUESDAY WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLANES AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS BY
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE HANGS ON OVER THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING
THE BOUNDARY INTO THE DELTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THERE
SOLUTIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
BOUNDARY DRYING THINGS OUT THURSDAY...BUT ECMWF CUTS OFF A LOW OVER
WEST TEXAS AND KEEPS THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  45  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      73  39  72  31 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     73  45  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   75  43  76  35 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       73  48  73  34 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    72  48  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     71  45  65  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

28/19/15/22





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