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000
FXUS64 KJAN 072132
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
332 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A RATHER MESSY FORECAST
IS ONGOING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  ONCE
AGAIN FOR TONIGHT...AS FLOW AND MOISTURE SUBTLY INCREASES...WEAK
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL BEGIN LIFTING UP ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS WILL CAUSE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN BREAKING OUT OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL AGAIN
BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY MY FAR NORTHWEST ZONES IN THE DELTA.
BECAUSE OF THIS...WE`VE HOISTED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6PM
TODAY THROUGH 6AM SUNDAY.  ACCUMULATION HERE WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.  THIS COULD STILL CAUSE SOME
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...ONLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BOARD WILL WARM VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT ENOUGH DURING THE SUNDAY MORNING HOURS THAT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IN THE DELTA SHOULD BECOME ALL RAIN BY
MID-MORNING...AND REMAIN SO DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...MORE PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FLOW...
AIDED BY STRONGER AREAS OF ASCENT TRAVERSING THE REGION...WILL
RESULT IN MORE MODERATE...TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...WAVES OF RAIN
FALLING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE
OVER AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY
WHERE BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING COULD TOTAL 2-3 INCHES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. /19/

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...A CONTINUED COOL AND MOSTLY WET
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH A GOOD BIT OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A FAIRLY LARGE TROUGH.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE CONUS BEING INFLUENCED
FROM A LARGE TROUGH WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKING PLACE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC OCEAN. WITH SUCH PRONOUNCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RIDE INTO THE REGION WITH THETA-E AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY 326-330K AND AROUND 1.5 INCH PW VALUES GENERALLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN TO THIS REGION MONDAY...WHICH WILL ALREADY BE SATURATED
BY RAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND
DONE...ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AS WELL.

THE RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS A
1032MB SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
LEAVE A LITTLE LULL IN THE PRECIP DURING MID-WEEK AS DRIER AIR DOES
MOVE IN (PW VALUES LESS THAN 1 INCH). HOWEVER...MODELS DIVERGE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW IN THE
GULF AHEAD OF A DESERT SOUTHWEST TROUGH. IT BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS
THE GULF AND UP THE EAST COAST...BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE REGION.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER...ABOUT A DAY...IN BRINGING THE TROUGH
THROUGH AS IT DIGS IT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. IT ALSO TAKES A LITTLE LONGER TO DEVELOP THE SFC LOW
AND WHEN IT BRINGS IT THROUGH...IT ACTUALLY TRACKS ACROSS ARKANSAS
RATHER THAN THE GULF COAST. THIS WOULD STILL LIKELY GIVE THE REGION
SOME RAIN HOWEVER. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS WERE BEING OBSERVED AT MOST TAF SITES AT
20Z WITH A FEW SITES IN CENTRAL MS HOLDING ON TO IFR CEILINGS.
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BY LATE AFTERNOON TO MVFR CATEGORY AREAWIDE
THEN DECREASE TO IFR AGAIN THIS EVNG AND CONTINUE IFR THROUGH 18Z
SUN. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD RETURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVNG. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT GLH AND MAYBE GWO THIS EVNG AND
CONTIUNE THROUGH 12Z SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUN
MORNING BUT THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       38  48  46  51 /  85 100  95  80
MERIDIAN      42  53  53  57 /  79  98  87  92
VICKSBURG     35  42  41  49 /  86  95  87  64
HATTIESBURG   44  57  57  63 /  37  81  64  64
NATCHEZ       37  43  43  51 /  76  98  84  66
GREENVILLE    29  39  36  45 /  95  81  77  45
GREENWOOD     33  42  41  48 /  95  94  91  59

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-034.

LA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ007-008.

AR...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

19/22