Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 280210 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
910 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT IS ON TAP FOR THE ARKLAMISS
BEFORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN LATER TOMORROW. LATEST
HRRR INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NW WILL DIMINISH
LATER TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED REDEVELOPMENT EARLY TOMORROW AM ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF PERIOD AS WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION TONIGHT. SHRA/TSRA ONGOING NOW ALONG
FRONT IN SE AR BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING KGLH/KGWO.
ADDITIONAL ISO SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS 28/09Z NEAR KGLH AND
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS KJAN BUT COVERAGE TO LOW TO PLACE VCSH/TS. WINDS
WILL VEER W/NW BEHIND FRONT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME AFTN TSRA NEAR
KHBG. WILL MONITOR FOR PSBL VCTS AT HBG IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES.
/ALLEN/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WERE COMBINING FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR AT 2 PM WITH INDICES IN THE LOWER 100S ELSEWHERE. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL PEAK A LITTLE HIGHER BEFORE DROPPING OFF THIS
EVENING BUT ADDITIONAL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS ON THE
WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THAT WILL SWING EAST TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST MONDAY.
THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THAT WILL HELP SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT
MODEL CONSENSUS DROPS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADARS DID NOT SHOW MUCH CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MODELS SHOW LITTLE QPF
INTO OUR CWA UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND DROP OUT
NORTHERN ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF LOOKS TO ENTER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES NEAR SUNRISE AND SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR BY NOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE AREA WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL TO
DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM BROOKHAVEN TO LAUREL. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR CWA
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL MORNING LOWS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS MOST SITES DROP INTO THE 60S. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL BUT WITH MUCH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SURFACE DEW POINTS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. RECORD COLD MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS DIP INTO
THE 50S. MOST RECORDS OCCURRED IN 1994 ON THAT DATE BUT THE RECORDS
FOR JACKSON AND MERIDIAN WERE SET BACK IN 1897. /22/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GFS/ECMWF ARE STILL
ADVERTISING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD WITH SPRAWLING TROF IN THE EAST AND RIDGE OVER THE WEST.

RATHER DRY AND TRANQUIL SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START OFF THIS PERIOD.
MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN OF LATE WITH UPPER 80S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

NW FLOW LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE MOVING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO APPROACH THE REGION BY THURSDAY. MODELS
SEEM TO INDICATE A REMNANT MCS MOVING OUT OF THE ARKLATEX INTO THE
AREA AS THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING.

CONVECTION LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL COLD CORE DIGS OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY. ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       74  93  65  88 /   6  19   9   2
MERIDIAN      73  93  64  88 /   7  25  10   2
VICKSBURG     73  93  64  88 /  10  19   9   2
HATTIESBURG   75  93  70  92 /   9  45  12   4
NATCHEZ       74  92  67  88 /  13  45  11   7
GREENVILLE    72  91  65  86 /  21  10   5   2
GREENWOOD     72  90  63  85 /  21  10   6   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






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