Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 230205 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
905 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
FALL ARRIVED RIGHT ON TIME TODAY. THE FRONT PASSED THROUGH AND THE
PWATS HAVE DROPPED BY AN INCH SINCE THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING. FOR THE
UPDATE...ONLY TWEAKED THE HOURLY TEMPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TREND
JUST A LITTLE BETTER. OTHERWISE THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT AND
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. /10/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TYPICAL EARLY FALL WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MUCH DRIER AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING BELOW A HALF INCH
IS SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHERLY SUBSIDENT FLOW AS
INDICATED BY LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA. MODELS AGREE THAT THE DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL AT NIGHT...SOME 5-10 DEG F BELOW DAILY CLIMATE
NORMALS...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.

THE FORECAST WEATHER PATTERN STILL SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. /EC/

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SOMEWHAT COMPLEX...LEADING TO DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A SHARP TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PICTURE OVER
THE PACIFIC COAST...BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DEPICT AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF FROM THE MIDWEST SHORTWAVE AND RETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. BY THE START OF THE NEW
WEEK...THE SHARPER PACIFIC TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE
CUTOFF LOW E/NEWD ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALL THE WHILE A
NEW CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE
SHARPER WEST COAST TROUGH. AS I SAID...COMPLEX.

ONE THING THAT WILL HELP SIMPLIFY THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE. FORECAST PWATS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAINLY BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND. AS THE CUTOFF LOW/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION...IT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS WOULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE CWA
DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME. TO REITERATE...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES AS THESE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENTLY IT IS EXPECTED THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IN THE FORECAST
AREA. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  83  58  84 /   0   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      51  83  56  84 /   0   0   0   3
VICKSBURG     53  82  55  85 /   0   0   0   3
HATTIESBURG   57  86  58  85 /   0   0   0   3
NATCHEZ       57  81  57  83 /   0   0   0   3
GREENVILLE    54  81  57  86 /   0   0   0   3
GREENWOOD     53  82  57  85 /   0   0   0   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




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