Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 261621 AAB
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1121 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE BACK END OF THE MORNING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX CONTINUES TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...CLEARING WAS
NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ALONG AND WEST OF I-55. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
BE COOLER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER
WITH ADDITIONAL CLEARING. NEVERTHELESS...FORECAST HIGHS WERE BUMPED
DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. IT IS CONTINUING TO LOOK LIKE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE LESS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE
SUBSIDENT REGIME BEHIND THE DEPARTING COMPLEX AS PWATS DROP TO NEAR
1 INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. REMOVED PRECIP WORDING
FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND KEPT IN ONLY ISOLATED
POPS IN THE SOUTH. HRRR DOES HINT AT SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT IT WOULD BE LATER ON INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD. FORECAST
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO AREA THIS MORNING IN
WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHRA OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS GIVING WAY TO CLEARING FROM I-55 CORRIDOR WEST. EXPECT SOME
CU TO REDEVELOP IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY LIMITED RISK FOR
ISOLATED SHRA REDEVELOPMENT. HRRR AND LATEST GFS IMPLY SOME SHRA/
TSRA REDEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM OVER E TX/LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF AREA
TONIGHT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS...BUT GIVEN FACT THAT SUPPORT
LOOKS WEAK AND WILL BE MOVING IN AFTER SUNSET WILL NOT SHOW ANY
IMPACTS IN TAFS. SOME FOG APPEARS LIKELY AT KHBG/KMEI LATE TONIGHT
CLOSER TO SURFACE RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL CARRY AT LEAST MVFR
VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.    /AEG/

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FOR TONIGHT THE HIRES MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF ANYTHING
GOING ON OUR AREA...BUT THEY SHOW AN MCS MOVING SOUTHEAST WEST OF
THE REGION...WHICH MAY SEND A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE
SOME DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KNOTS. THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SHOWS SOME 7C LAPSE RATES
WITH MIDLEVEL 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C...-6 SHOWALTER INDEX..VT NEAR
30 AND 20 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR. SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL BE AROUND
4000-5000 JUST WEST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. SO WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL PUT A LIMITED GRAPHIC FOR THE FAR WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
/17/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION TO END THE WORK WEEK. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THURSDAY WILL TRACK EAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY SATURDAY
AND HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. AS HEIGHTS LOWER AND WAA INCREASES
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST OVER OUR CWA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS GFS RUN IS AGAIN A
LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CMC. THE CLOSED LOW/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE
WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA MONDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING IT
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WETTER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH NO REAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DECENT POPS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER ON TUESDAY. NORMAL LOWS RUN
IN THE MID 60S AND NORMAL HIGHS RUN 85 TO 87F. DUE TO MOISTURE
LEVELS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /22/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DL/AEG/17/22


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