Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 272101
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
401 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight through Thursday morning...

A very busy forecast is ongoing today as the upper ridge is finally
beginning to begin the break down over the next couple of days. Until
then, heat has been entrenched in the area with some areas again
reaching upper 90s again. Had went on the warmer side today due to
warmer temps aloft and we achieved on the warm end, especially with
some decent mixing ongoing. However, some areas have been able to
hold on to some decent low level boundary layer moisture, which has
kept heat indices in the 100-105 degree range, mainly on the high
end, most of the afternoon. There have also been a few sites peak
above 105 degree heat indices. Kept HWO/graphics ongoing for heat for
today. Thankfully, increasing convection tonight will help tone down
the temperatures and heat fairly quickly.

In addition to the heat, overall good warming has led to efficient
low level lapse rates and widespread convection, mainly in the
southern and eastern portions of the region. Due to good lapse rates
and potential for precip loading/evaporational cooling, left severe
potential in the graphics/HWO for today. HRRR and local radars
continue to show a decent somewhat broken complex of storms moving
into southern TN and could be the focus for more severe activity this
evening, mainly after 00z. Expect this disturbance to move through at
least the north to central portions of the area but due to loss of
heating, there could be weakening of the convection after 03z. Left
some POPs in overnight as some guidance show a little lingering
around. Another humid night is in store with lows in the mid 70s.

As the cold front moves into the area Tuesday and with storms and
clouds expected early on, overall this should hinder warming
tomorrow keeping us in the upper 80s to low 90s. Could not rule out
some strong storms and locally heavy downpours along the front,
mainly along and S of I-20, but severe potential looks not as much as
today. There will be some decent vertical totals around and some
slight increase of flow but overall, but with not as warm conditions
expected and lower low level lapse rates, this is not enough to
mention anything in the HWO/graphics. A gradual decrease in clouds
and POP will begin to occur around 00Z, with much drier air filtering
Wednesday into Thursday morning. The front will also stall along the
Gulf Coast, keeping some chances of showers and maybe some storms,
mainly confined along and south of the Highway 84 corridor. Highs may
be slightly warmer in the low 90s due to the drier air around. With
PW`s falling near 1 inch in places, slightly cooler and drier air
will finally begin to filter in. Lows will fall off near the low 70s
Wednesday morning to even upper 60s Thursday morning. /DC/

.LONG TERM...

Thursday through next weekend...

Temperatures and POPs were good, so stuck with guidance. Pattern
does not look as wet for the end of the week this run. The upper
ridge seems to dominate, at least the European model seems to think
it will. The system for early next week may also be delayed and
shifted due to the upper ridge.

Wednesday through Friday the boundary lingers near the coast.
Several disturbances ride along the boundary, so small rain chances
south of Interstate 20 seem ok. If the surface high drops down quick
behind the boundary, the end of the week may be dry. With the area in
northwest flow, it still looks like a few convective complexes will
approach the CWA going into the weekend, but nothing quite makes it.
Since the upper ridge does not appear to break down but just shift
back and forth through early next week. It is unclear whether the
next boundary will be a back door front or miss the CWA all together.
For now it looks like the front will catch the northeast and move
west/southwest into the area early next week. PW values climb back to
near 2 inches, so could see some good rainfall amounts. Forecast
soundings also show some decent instability and elevated lapse rates.
Nothing good enough to add to the HWO at this time. Overall, no real
changes to the extended forecast. A chance of rain each day and
warmer than normal temperatures. /DC/07/

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered storms are impacting the eastern areas and
restrictions from this should diminish pretty soon. Other activity
moving out of N MS may impact GWO/GLH a bit later. Overall, VFR
conditions should exist overnight with some lingering chance of some
activity, but will not mention in forecast until a better handle on
when/where is known. For Tuesday, look for a earlier start to
activity with the better coverage across central and southern
sections. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  90  72  92 /  46  62  60  13
Meridian      74  91  71  93 /  46  70  68  20
Vicksburg     75  90  72  92 /  46  56  53  11
Hattiesburg   74  90  73  91 /  46  74  72  36
Natchez       74  88  72  90 /  46  67  65  27
Greenville    75  90  72  92 /  51  31  29   7
Greenwood     74  90  71  91 /  62  32  30   6

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/07/CME


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