Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
FXUS64 KJAN 290849
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
349 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016
For the Today through Thursday night period, predawn water vapor
imagery and model analysis showed northwest flow across the CWA
around a subtropical ridge 594 dkm centered over the Southwest US.
Latest predawn surface analysis showed a surface front pushing
through the CWA. Area radars were picking up some isolated showers
near our southeast counties. Predawn temps were in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. There was also some patchy fog across the south half of
the CWA. Precipitable water was 1.2 north to 2.1 inches south.
The primary concerns will be our rain chances across the south
as other areas dry out from the north as well as temperatures.
For early this morning put in some patchy early morning fog across
the southern two-thirds of the CWA. The fog will affect mainly areas
that received rainfall yesterday. Otherwise for the Today through
Thursday the frontal boundary will push south and become stationary
across our southern counties. A series of weak short waves will
cross the region from the northwest along the frontal boundary. With
the dryer airmass coming in precipitable water will decrease to
below one inch in some of our northern and central counties. Across
the south precipitable water will run around 1.5 to 1.8
inches...which will aid in limited rain chances.
As we push into Thursday night the frontal boundary will be
weakening as it pushes south of the CWA. So expect only isolated
evening convection in the southeast before it moves south of the
region during the evening.
As far as temps are concern it will be cool enough to avoid any heat
index concerns through Thursday afternoon. Daily highs will be in
the lower 90s. Lows tonight will be from the middle 60s to the lower
70s. Lows for Thursday night will be from the upper 60s to the lower
Overall warmer than normal temperatures are expected for the long
term period. Friday a dry air mass with PWATs less than an inch and
a half and surface dew points in the low to mid 60s will be over
most of our CWA. The exception will be in our southeast where
greater moisture will reside in proximity of an old stalled
boundary. Daytime heating will lead to low POPs across our southeast
but the remainder of the area will be dry. A shortwave trough
swinging east across the Great Lakes region will shift east of the
Northeast CONUS Friday night. This will result in a cold front
dropping south over Tennessee and into northern Mississippi before
stalling north of our CWA by Saturday. Dry weather will continue
over the central portions of our CWA but light return flow help
convection over our southern zones while the proximity of the
stalled front will aid convection across our northern most zones
Saturday afternoon. Sunday ridging surface and aloft will strengthen
along the Gulf coast from the east while another shortwave trough
swings east across the the mid and lower Mississippi River valleys.
A moist air mass with PWATS just shy of two inches will be back over
our whole CWA. Daytime heating will lead to at least a slight chance
of afternoon and early evening storms in the north and south again.
Ridging surface and aloft will hold tough over the northern Gulf
Monday and Tuesday while a couple shortwaves continue to track
across northern Mississippi and help set off mainly diurnally
driven storms. Greatest POPs will be carried over our north each day.
There looks to be more opportunity for MVFR/IFR conditions at
JAN/HKS/HBG/MEI and will cover that with a larger window. VFR
conditions look to quickly return by 14z Wed. Expect isolated to
scattered convection across the southern and eastern counties...which
may cause some brief mvfr/ifr conditions across KHBG for mainly this
afternoon into early evening. Winds will be from the north at 5 to 8
knots for this afternoon and 3-5 knots for tonight. /17/
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 92 70 93 70 / 11 7 10 5
Meridian 92 69 93 68 / 18 16 12 6
Vicksburg 93 69 94 70 / 10 6 7 5
Hattiesburg 90 72 93 72 / 45 22 22 14
Natchez 90 71 92 71 / 18 11 12 8
Greenville 92 68 92 71 / 9 5 4 4
Greenwood 92 66 92 69 / 9 5 5 4