Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 260257 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
857 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. THE ONLY UPDATES MADE WERE
TO TWEAK THE HOURLY TEMPS. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SAT. AFTER 00Z SAT WITH THE RETURN FLOW
BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN LOW STRATUS AND
RAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. FIRST IN THE WAY OF ACTIVITY WILL BE PRECIP STARTING LATE FRI
NGT AND LINGERING INTO PARTS OF SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A SFC BOUNDARY
AROUND DURING THIS TIME AS WELL TO HELP COMPLICATE THE TEMP
FORECAST. LASTLY...BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS LIKE A COLDER
AIRMASS WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION AND POTENTIALLY KEEP TEMPS WELL
BELOW AVG.

FOR TONIGHT AND FRI...LOOK FOR TEMPS TO BE WARMER AS RETURN FLOW
BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND WE HEAD INTO
FRI. COOLEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE E WITH WARMER READINGS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE WEST AS SFC WINDS STAY STRONGER. LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS ON FRI ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL
PEAK BETWEEN 60-65.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE FRI NGT AND ESPECIALLY INTO SAT
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NEARS FROM THE W/NW. THIS INITIAL S/WV WILL
BE MORE OF A GLANCING PIECE OF ENERGY...BUT SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
DRAG A SFC FRONT INTO THE AREA AND STALL AS A SFC INFLECTION
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT S/WV WHICH IS SLATED TO ARRIVE
LATER SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL PROVIDE A PROLONGED
WINDOW WHERE PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SAT-SUN. WHILE OVERALL
LIFT WILL NOT BE STRONG AND THE FLOW ALOFT NOT IMPRESSIVE...THE
ORIENTATION OF VARIOUS FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIP DURING THE WINDOW I MENTIONED. ADDITIONALLY...SOME OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND BE CONVECTIVE WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED RAINFALL RATES. COMBINE THAT WITH WHAT THE
CWA RECEIVED TUE...AND HEAVY RAIN OR FLOODING COULD BECOME AN ISSUE.

AS FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE SETUP IS NOT
GREAT...BUT INDICATIONS ARE LOWER/MID 60 DEWPTS WILL MAKE INTO PART
OF THE AREA AND AS THAT COMBINES WITH PEAK HEATING...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO EXIST ALONG WITH SOME STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW
WHICH COULD SUPPORT A FEW/SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SAT AFTERNOON
INTO SAT NGT. DUE TO THIS...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT AND
ADD THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AS WELL. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME AND WAIT FOR CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE MORE ON
AMOUNTS/LOCATION.

THE TEMP FORECAST WILL BE COMPLEX SAT NGT INTO EARLY MON WITH A
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SUBSTANTIAL TEMP
GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT AS THE AIR ON THE N SIDE WILL BE QUITE
COOL. OVERALL...THE LATEST GUID SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS.

THE FINAL PUSH LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUN NGT WITH PRECIP PUSHING OUT
BY EARLY MON MORNING. THERE DOES REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW
STRONG THIS LAST S/WV WILL BE. THE CANADIAN/EURO ARE THE STRONGER
MODELS AND HAVE HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WHILE THE GFS/NAM ARE
A BIT WEAKER AND HAVE LESS PRECIP. EXPECT THIS TO IRON ITSELF OUT
OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS.

A COLD CANADIAN HIGH (1040-1050MB) WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FOR MID WEEK. INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL WILL SEE THE SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THIS AIRMASS. MY INTUITION SAYS THIS WILL BE A
COLD/SHALLOW AIRMASS AND HAVE A TENDENCY TO "OOZE" FURTHER SOUTH
THAN CURRENTLY SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL GUID...MAINLY BECAUSE THEY DON`T
HANDEL SHALLOW COLD WELL. SAYING THAT...I EXPECT TEMPS TO BE COLDER
FOR MID/LATER WEEK...ESPECIALLY HIGHS. THE LOWS ARE MORE TRICKY AS
SFC WINDS/CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP THEM FROM REALLY DROPPING OFF.
STILL...LOWS COULD BE COLDER THAN FORECAST AS WELL. WHAT DOES BEAR
WATCHING IS THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE SW AS THAT COULD HELP INCITE
WAA ALOFT AND THEN DEVELOP PRECIP OVER THE COLD/DRY AIRMASS. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR...WINTRY PRECIP COULD DEVELOP. THIS IS STILL 6-8 DAYS
OUT...BUT BEARS WATCHING. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       36  63  52  68 /   0  13  67  89
MERIDIAN      33  62  49  63 /   0   7  57  89
VICKSBURG     36  63  54  70 /   0  14  81  86
HATTIESBURG   35  64  53  71 /   0  12  67  89
NATCHEZ       40  64  57  72 /   0  18  80  88
GREENVILLE    37  62  51  63 /   0  12  79  90
GREENWOOD     37  63  51  64 /   0  11  76  90

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.