Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 081747 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1147 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
VFR flight cats are once again dominating across the forecast area
although partly to mostly cloudy skies remain with ceilings in the 5
to 15 kft range. Expect ceilings to raise through the remainder of
the day and coverage of clouds to thin out. North surface winds will
continue to be somewhat strong and gusty with occasional gusts up to
30 mph not being ruled out. Winds will lessen this evening but should
still remain from 5 to 15 mph out of the north in all areas tonight
as skies continue to clear and conditions remain VFR. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Big push of chilly air in the low levels is going on this morning
across the Lower Mississippi Valley as modifying sfc high pressure
(of Arctic origins) works toward the region. Current temps ranging
from near 40 in northern zones to mid to upper 40s in southern zones
will fail to rise but a few degrees at most into the afternoon with
temperatures starting to plummet in the late afternoon through early
evening. Expect clouds to ever-so-gradually start showing some holes
as we go through the course of the daylight hours, although many in
the region will still experience mostly cloudy conditions throughout
the day. Winds will be gusty from the north and contribute to wind
chills today in the 30s (even during the afternoon) in many areas
along and northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor. Finally, there
are still some areas of very light rain across central and southern
zones currently but ebbing intensities will shift all potential of
measuring rain south of the CWA by afternoon. /BB/

Prior discussion below:

Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the
circulation around a large closed low spinning over eastern Manitoba
and western Quebec. This closed low will move east today and swing
the associated upper level trough across our region and help bring a
very cold airmass to our CWA. Early morning surface analysis showed
a >1040mb high over the northern plains that will drop south today.
Regional radars showed patchy light rain spreading east from Texas
into Louisiana. The light rain will continue to spread east this
morning across our western zones into central Mississippi. Models
show very little qpf east of I-55 with the greatest pops carried
over our southwest. As the surface high drops south colder and much
drier air will filter into our CWA on breezy north winds and bring
an end to the rain. Measurable rainfall is expected to have ended
over our CWA by noon. CAA today will hold temperatures in the 40s at
most locations today with our southeast reaching the lower 50s.
Tonight the 1040mb will still be centered northwest of our CWA
maintaining a north wind and hindering prime radiational cooling but
temperatures will drop into the 20s resulting in a couple of hours
with wind chill temperatures in the teens. Although these conditions
will remain above advisory criteria, precautions should be taken
tonight to protect pets and sensitive plants from the cold. /22/

Friday through Wednesday... A generally quiet zonal flow pattern
will be prevalent across the CWA through the period. The center of
the cold airmass, a 1040mb high will become centered over the
central plains by Friday morning. The large surface high will shift
east centered over the Southern Appalachians by Saturday morning.
Saturday morning will be another cold morning with lows from the
upper teens northeast to the middle 20s southwest...which along with
Friday morning will be the coldest mornings of the period. Once again
caution should be taken for pets,animals, and tender vegetation for
Friday night into Saturday morning. As the large high continues to
retreat to the east low level southerly flow will come back to the
region. This will cause temperatures to moderate some. For Sunday
into the middle of next week two cold fronts will pass through the
region. Limited instability will keep it in the form of light to
moderate showers. The first front will pass into the region on
Monday, which will be followed by the second front on Tuesday. The
GFS and Euro were generally similar with the timing, while the
Canadian was slower with the second front on Wednesday. The second
front will be stronger for Tuesday.  The GFS model had better
amplitude with the upper trough associated with the second cold
front. The rains will depart from the region on late Tuesday night.
On Wednesday in the wake of the stronger cold front temps will once
again dip into the middle 20s to the middle 30s on Wednesday night.
At this time a 1044 mb high will be centered over the Southern
Plains per GFS, while the Canadian and Euro has a 1032-34 mb high
centered over the Central Mississippi Valley. Thus went toward the
more moderate Canadian and Euro with Wednesdays lows./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       48  26  45  24 /  20   4   0   0
Meridian      49  24  46  21 /  11   4   0   0
Vicksburg     46  25  43  23 /  20   7   0   0
Hattiesburg   51  29  48  24 /  20   6   0   0
Natchez       46  27  43  25 /  24  10   0   0
Greenville    42  24  39  24 /   6   2   0   0
Greenwood     44  22  41  21 /   5   1   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

BB/17/22



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