Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 022202
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
402 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION......A COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO IS SETTING UP FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR TONIGHT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DENSE FOG AS
THE WARM SECTOR SPREADS NORTH OVER THE AREA. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL MID MORNING ON TUESDAY. BY
TUESDAY THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW/MID 70S. LITTLE WILL CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM OKLAHOMA
ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MOVING INTO
THE DELTA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
DRASTIC WITH A 30-40 DEGREE DROP WITH FROPA. AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THE MAIN UPPER JET WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH PROMOTING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6-1.7
THERE WILL BE A BOUNTIFUL AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ANA-FRONTAL THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BY
EARLY EVENING IN THE NORTH WITH THE COLD AIR SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN LOOK LIKELY IN THE DELTA DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITH THIS
AREA SPREADING SOUTH WITH THE COLD AIR. CURRENTLY THE TIMING LOOKS
LIKE AREAS ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR WILL SEE A CHANGE-OVER
FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION
MAY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS IN THE DELTA BEFORE
ENDING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE PRECIP WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
LIQUID IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENT...BUT IF THE
PRECIPITATION LINGERS LONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE MORNING...THERE MAY BE
A BRIEF CHANGEOVER. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.

AS WE GO OUT INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGING IN THERE
SOLUTIONS ON SUNDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN WHILE THE GFS IS MAINLY DRY
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL COMPROMISE WITH LEAVING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY./15/

&&

.AVIATION...STALLED SFC FRONT REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS FRONT TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WARM
FRONT TUE MORNING. DUE TO THIS...MOST OF THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE IN
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BECOME MORE MVFR FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF TUE AS THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       56  74  63  67 /  45  39  54  68
MERIDIAN      54  74  60  72 /  52  24  52  59
VICKSBURG     45  74  64  65 /  40  39  37  80
HATTIESBURG   60  73  61  79 /  34  23  26  47
NATCHEZ       50  73  64  68 /  38  39  23  66
GREENVILLE    40  67  62  55 /  41  40  61  99
GREENWOOD     47  71  63  57 /  48  41  76  94

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR MSZ043>046-048>066-072>074.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MSZ018-019-025>030-034.

LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR LAZ026.

AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

15/CME





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