Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 040843
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
343 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...AS DEW
POINTS LOOK TO MIX INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S EACH AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WEST
WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...DESPITE SOME
PASSING WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS...THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL
FALL TO AROUND 70 UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM CAN`T BE RULED OUT...BUT MOST LOCALES
CURRENTLY LOOK TO REMAIN DRY.  ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...WILL
DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE WILL
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THE SE
HALF OF THE CONUS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE CONTROL OF A LARGE RIDGE
WITH A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS WOBBLING ABOUT ON ITS UNDER SIDE. THIS
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS APPEARS TO BE THE SAME ONE THAT JUST LIFTED OUT
OF HERE YESTERDAY...AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL WOBBLE BACK NEAR
THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

MEANWHILE...CONTINUED TROFFINESS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
BEGIN SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN SO PREVALENT THROUGH THE
SUMMER IN THE SOUTH. AN IMPRESSIVE WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT THROUGH
THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...FURTHER BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE AND
PUTTING THE REGION BACK INTO MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN. THE
WAVE WILL HAVE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WITH IT...WHICH WILL MAKE A
RUN FOR THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IS CONCERNED...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS PERIOD. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHEAR AXIS AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE. BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS TO
BE A GOOD BET AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON DURING MAX HEATING. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT A SITE OR TWO COULD BRIEFLY
DROP TO MVFR STATUS AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG
AND/OR STRATUS.  AFTER SUNRISE...BOTH WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE...AND
VFR CATEGORIES WILL ENSUE AND PREVAIL AT SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE
REMAINING FORECAST.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF DEGRADED FLIGHT STATUSES IS
POSSIBLE AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PRIMARILY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...KHKS...KJAN...KMEI...AND KHBG.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE BY 00Z. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       96  71  96  72 /  17   9  20  12
MERIDIAN      94  70  95  70 /  17   9  20  12
VICKSBURG     96  71  97  71 /  15   9  21  11
HATTIESBURG   96  71  96  72 /  21  12  27  14
NATCHEZ       93  70  93  71 /  19  12  28  14
GREENVILLE    97  71  98  72 /   9   6  13   9
GREENWOOD     96  70  96  71 /   8   6  13   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

19/26



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