Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 280438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1138 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Updated for 06Z aviation discussion


06Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail through the period at most sites. A
better chance for showers and storms will exist today,
particularly for TAF sites along and south of I-20. Have included
mention of VCTS for HBG/MEI where confidence is higher in storms
affecting the site, but left out of JAN/HKS where confidence is
lower. Storms could bring brief MVFR vis restrictions. Otherwise,
southeast winds will prevail today around 10-15kts at all TAF
sites. /28/


The boundary along the coast will continue to provide cloud cover
for parts of the forecast area along and south of Hwy 84 overnight
tonight. Some higher clouds leftover from a disturbance in Texas will
filter through the rest of the area from west to east tonight.
Other than that, the quiet weather will continue. Low temps will
sink to the mid 60s tonight. /10/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight through Wednesday afternoon...High pressure at the surface
will continue to gradually shift east of the forecast area tonight
into Wednesday.  This will result in surface flow becoming more
southeasterly through the period, thus resulting in slightly warmer
conditions during the period.  Look for lows tonight under mostly
clear skies to fall into the mid and upper 60s.  Then with
noticeably more clouds over the CWA Wednesday afternoon, highs will
range from the mid 80s to around 90.

After a couple of dry days across the region, rain chances will
increase across the area Wednesday afternoon.  This will be more
notable over areas along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor.
This increase in rain chances will come as a result of an upper
trough shifting east out of Texas, and along the north central gulf
coast.  Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to
develop along the gulf coast, and gradually lift north into the
southern half of the forecast area, towards the Interstate 20
corridor through the course of the afternoon hours.  This activity
will begin to dissipate as we approach the evening hours. /19/

Wednesday night through Monday:

It does appear that this late June dry spell will come to an end
late this week. As the surface high moves off the East Coast and
low pressure develops over the High Plains, moist southerly flow
will return to our region. Dewpoint temperatures will climb back
into the low 70s with precipitable water values increasing to
near two inches. An upper level trough will continue to provide
some lift for showers and thunderstorms over mainly southern
portions of the area Thursday and Friday. At this time, the
chances for severe weather look to be minimal for the second half
of this week. Modest amounts of instability combined with weak
shear should result in fairly typical summertime convection.

The weather could become more active this weekend with a greater
chance for isolated strong to severe storms as a shortwave trough
is forecast to slide eastward across the central CONUS during
that time. A cold frontal boundary will dip into the region,
shifting the focus for more organized rainfall to our north while
bringing steeper mid-level lapse rates and a little better flow
to our forecast area. Microburst potential will be increased with
afternoon convection due to the steeper lapse rates and higher
moisture content of the atmosphere. While some chance for showers
and thunderstorms will continue into next work week, models
indicate high pressure will try to build back over our region in
the wake of the trough`s passage. Temperatures will gradually
trend upwards if high pressure becomes established, but have kept
highs near normal for this time of year due to some uncertainties
regarding the larger weather pattern at that point. /NF/EC/


Jackson       67  89  70  85 /   1  28  19  65
Meridian      67  88  70  83 /   1  30  23  62
Vicksburg     67  89  71  86 /   1  27  19  61
Hattiesburg   67  86  70  82 /   1  48  40  71
Natchez       66  87  71  83 /   1  41  24  66
Greenville    65  89  71  86 /   1   7   9  42
Greenwood     66  90  71  86 /   1   7  11  47





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