Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 210857
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAINING THE MAIN CONCERN. EARLY
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1019MB RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF
COAST. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
CIRCULATION AROUND A 592DAM HIGH CENTERED OVER OUR AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER TODAY AND REMAIN CENTERED OVER
OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TOGETHER RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER OUR REGION WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA WITH PWS
OF AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS TO TWO INCHES. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN
UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS DURING THE HOTTEST PART OF
THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
WITH THE HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 101-104F TODAY AND 102-106 FRIDAY. GFSMOS GUIDANCE WAS
AGAIN A LITTLE TOO WARM AND LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM AND
ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS EACH DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS
STILL HINTS AT LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION TRYING TO DRIFT
UP INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. HAVE CARRIED ISOLATED WORDING IN THE
SOUTHWEST TODAY AND ONLY IN OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY LOW ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /22/

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL BE BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE AS MEAN RIDGING CONTINUES
THROUGH SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BRING CLASSIC AUGUST SUMMER MUGGY
CONDITIONS. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30C. THIS
WILL BRING TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S HEAT INDICES WILL BE A CONCERN. HEAT INDICES WILL BE
AROUND 100 TO 107 ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RATHER SCARCE THROUGH SUNDAY. AS WE GO INTO
NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS
WILL GIVE THE REGION A BREAK IN WARM AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THUS 850MB TEMPS WILL COOL SOME INTO THE MIDDLE 20SC. RAIN CHANCES
WILL PICK UP AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2.2 INCHES. THERE WILL BE DECENT
INSTABILITY FOR SOME CONVECTIVE CHANCES FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THE MEAN
RIDGING WILL FLUCTUATE SOME DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

AS FAR AS THE TROPICS ARE CONCERN MODELS ARE KEEPING TROPICAL
SYSTEMS AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PUSHING POSSIBLE TROPICAL
SYSTEMS OFF THE EAST COAST.

AS FAR AS MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE CONCERN MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES...
EURO...NAVY AND UK MODELS KEEP THE MEAN RIDGE DOMINANT OVER OUR
REGION. THE GFS TRIED TO BRING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY PUSHED A FRONT TOWARD THE REGION FOR THE LATER
PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. MODELS WERE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE WEEKEND HEAT AND INCREASE IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST FOR NEXT WEEK.

AS FAR AS POPS AND TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO MEX AND GMOS
GUIDANCE FOR THE PERIOD./17/

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER LOUISIANA WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER
MISSISSIPPI. ALL TAF SITES WERE OBSERVING VFR CONDS AT 830Z. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL FROM 10-13Z OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING. VERY LIGHT(<6KTS) S-SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BECOMING
NEAR CALM TONIGHT. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       96  73  97  73 /   9   6   7   5
MERIDIAN      96  72  97  73 /   6   6   9   5
VICKSBURG     96  73  97  72 /  13   6   5   4
HATTIESBURG   97  73  98  74 /  11  12  20   9
NATCHEZ       94  74  95  73 /  22  11  13  10
GREENVILLE    95  74  97  74 /   6   5   5   4
GREENWOOD     96  73  97  73 /   5   5   5   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/17/22








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