Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 241532
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1032 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH SKIES HAVING CLEARED OUT. NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES WERE NECESSARY IN THIS UPDATE. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN EASTWARD EXITING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW SUIT
THIS MORNING IN EXITING THE REGION.  HIGH PRESSURE AT BOTH THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND
OVERALL QUIET AND NICE CONDITIONS.

HIGHS TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S AND THEN INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN COOL AS
THEY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.  THEN SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEY`LL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS THEY FALL INTO THE LOW
AND MIDDLE 50S. /19/

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...
GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT A BROAD MID LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT AT THE
SURFACE. BOTH ARE ALSO INDICATING A SYSTEM DIGGING OVER THE PAC NW.

MOVING INTO MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EASTERN US
AND PUTS A WEAK SW FLOW REGIME BACK OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GET UNDERWAY...AS WELL...AS WE GET ON THE
BACK SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT MOVING INTO TUESDAY WITH MID LEVEL WAVE
MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NW AR/OK. WHILE 80S WILL HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED FOR AFTERNOON
MAXES SUNDAY/MONDAY AND SHOULD BE AGAIN TUESDAY...DEWPOINTS NOW IN
THE 60S WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR AIRMASS SHOWERS TO START
BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE
BOUNDAY AND TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE GULF MOISTURE SOURCE.

MID LEVEL WAVE PULLS INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY AND ALLOWS THE
BOUNDARY TO HANGUP OVER THE NORTH AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS DIVERGE ON
SOLUTIONS. WHILE BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT BOUNDARY WILL SUCCUMB TO
FRONTOLYSIS...THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
PULLING OUT OF THE ROCKIES FOR THURSDAY. THE ECMWF WANTS TO AMPLIFY
THE FLOW AND BRING A RATHER POTENT SYSTEM RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY/THURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE GFS DOES AMPLIFY THE PATTERN
SOMEWHAT...ITS SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ARE MUCH WEAKER
THAN THE ECMWF AND THUS MAINTAINS A WARMER REGIME OVER THE CWA. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE NEAR TERM. /26/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS.
THESE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LIGHT TO CALM THIS EVENING...AND
REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. /19/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$







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