Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 010308
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
908 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL
HEAD TOWARD MISSOURI BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP AND CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE OF A TEMPERATURE DROP OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL LOWER LATE TONIGHT LEADING TO MVFR CIGS AT
MOST SITES BY 12Z AND THEN EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS AFTER 12Z. VSBY WILL
BE REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. /SW/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE CLOSED LOW
HAS HELPED BRING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO OUR REGION TODAY
BUT WL BECOME LESS OF AN IMMEDIATE INFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA AS IT
DROPS SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY. WE WL SEE THE CLOSED LOW AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY THOUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE POTENT SHORTWAVE WL DEEPEN
AS IT TRACKS EAST AND STRENGTHENS A SURFACE LOW NOTED JUST EAST OF
THE ROCKIES OVER COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. WAA WL INCREASE TONIGHT
OVER OUR AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WL
DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO OUR DELTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS WL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND HELP TEMPERATURES
CLIMB IN THE THE MID AND UPPER 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE SOUTH WL REACH 70 DEGREES BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PWS WL BE BACK ABOVE AN INCH AND A
QUARTER WITH DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE REGION BUT OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE COLD
FRONT WL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR. THERE REMAINS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHEAST AS
TEMPERATURE PROFILES BECOME COLD ENOUGH BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
TOTALLY ENDS. MORNING LOWS WL BE NEAR FREEZING WHILE THE FLURRIES
FALL BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP DRY THE ROADS BUT PATCHES OF BLACK ICE MAY
FORM ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA
MONDAY WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. NORTH
WINDS WL BECOME LIGHTER THROUGH THE DAY BUT CAA WL HOLD HIGHS MONDAY
IN THE 40S. THE SURFACE HIGH WL BE CENTERED OVER OUR CWA MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE COLDEST MORNING
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
MID 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY BUT THE
OLD CLOSED LOW WL OPEN UP AS IT SWINGS EAST OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS NOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH WL HELP
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST THAT WL TRACK EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING BACK INTO OUR CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY MORNING THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENDING OVER OUR SOUTHEAST
MOST ZONES. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND MOISTURE OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WL BE DIVING OVER OUR CWA ON
THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING GULF LOW. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY WITH THIS
NEXT SHORTWAVE WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN GENERATE PCPN. THIS SYSTEM
BEARS WATCHING AS TEMPERATURES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME WINTRY TYPE
PRECIPITATION. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF WITH THIS PACKAGE.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THEN CONTINUED DRY AND
WARMER SATURDAY AS RETURN FLOW GETS REESTABLISHED. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WL THICKEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 08Z AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WL MOVE THROUGH GLH BY 22Z AND HBG
BEFORE 06Z MON. A FEW TSTMS WL BE PSBL SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH FROPA AND REMAIN ABOVE
10KTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       48  68  35  45 /  18  88  66   4
MERIDIAN      41  65  36  46 /   6  90  68   6
VICKSBURG     50  69  35  45 /  31  94  52   3
HATTIESBURG   46  70  41  50 /  15  78  66   3
NATCHEZ       52  70  34  45 /  34  88  58   3
GREENVILLE    47  64  32  41 /  45  97  32   4
GREENWOOD     48  63  32  42 /  20  97  49   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

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