Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 260200 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
900 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL...QUIET AND DRY. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR OVERNIGHT. MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS
WILL DROP TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGHOUT THE AREA. PATCHY FOG
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW...MAINLY IN SOUTH
MS. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF
PIB/HBG...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AS WELL ASIDE FROM
TYPICAL PATCHY AND BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING AROUND OR
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY. ANY OF THESE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG SHOULD BE PRIMARILY OCCURRING SOUTH OF I-20 AND LIFTING BY 9 AM.
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AND BLOWING UP TO 10 MPH. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND AS A 596DM UPPER RIDGE WILL
NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
HEAT UP THIS WEEKEND WITH READINGS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S SATURDAY AND INTO AT LEAST THE MID 90S SUNDAY. THE DRIER AIR
THAT HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION TODAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
WONT LAST FOR LONG AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FILTER MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP INCREASE HEAT INDICES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY THE DELTA. WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...DAYTIME HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH
THE 103-105 RANGE ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE HIGHEST ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
RIDGE WILL RETREAT ON SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH WILL SWING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
TOWARD OUR REGION FOR MONDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MAIN ADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST WAS TO CUT HIGHS BY AT LEAST 2-3
DEGREES FOR SATURDAY. MAV GUIDANCE WAS A BIT ROBUST WITH THESE
VALUES AND THINK THAT WHILE HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY...UPPER
90S SEEMS A BIT PREMATURE. /28/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANGES WILL BE ON THE WAY INTO
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
DRIVE THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON TUESDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS ON MONDAY BUT CUT BELOW
GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  94  74  95 /   0   1   5   5
MERIDIAN      67  94  72  97 /   0   1   4   5
VICKSBURG     70  93  72  95 /   0   1   5   5
HATTIESBURG   73  94  74  96 /   2  11   5  10
NATCHEZ       73  93  73  93 /   0   6   5   8
GREENVILLE    70  94  74  96 /   0   1   3   5
GREENWOOD     68  93  73  96 /   0   1   3   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$




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