Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 170840
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE ONLY SOME SHOWER CHANCES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AS WELL AS TEMPS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OVER THE CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAS TRYING TO PUSH IN SOME STRATUS TOWARD THE REGION
FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. ON THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS PREVALENT
ACROSS THE REGION UNDER AN UNSEASONABLE COOL AIRMASS WITH TEMPS IN
THE 40S. A SHORT WAVE WAS APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A
SHORT WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR
TODAY AS MOISTURE BUILDS INTO THE ARKLAMISS AS THE NORTHWEST GULF
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THIS WILL INCREASE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY INTO
TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE AREA WILL BE RATHER CAP WITH
SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE. SO WILL OPT FOR SHOWERS
FOR TONIGHT AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT INCREASES SOME WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES. THIS WAS NOTED BY THE LOCAL AND NATIONAL
WRF MODELS...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW MUCH COVERAGE. SO WITH THIS IN MIND
KEPT CLOSE TO MOS CHANCE POPS. WITH MIDLEVEL DRYING QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF UNDER A HALF INCH IN GENERAL. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE COMING FROM THE PLAINS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE GULF SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL CONTINUE OUR
CHANCES OF SHOWERS MAINLY FOR FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING IN THE
EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A DECENT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH BEFORE BECOMING A CLOSED SYSTEM EAST OF THE CWA.  NATIONAL
WRF AND MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE
REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SPRING LIKE WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S EAST TO THE LOWER 50S WEST.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN STUCK GENERALLY CLOSE TO MAV AND GMOS
GUIDANCE. AS FOR POPS MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO MAV AND GMOS
GUIDANCE./17/

.LONGTERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
NICE EASTER WEEKEND EXPECTED BUT RAIN AND GENERAL TSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE RISE MONDAY MORNING, PEAK TUESDAY MRNG/AFTN, AND
TAPER DOWN TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED OVER PREVIOUS RUNS WITH MODEL SUITE
CONVERGING ON OVERALL SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION IN THE MEDIUM TO
LONG RANGE TIME FRAME. EASTER WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE H5
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE SRN CONUS WITH THE REGION NUZZLED IN
THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING SATURDAY AND TRANSITION TO SW FLOW WITH AN
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY. TOP-DOWN
MOISTURIZING WILL BE DELAYED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST SUNDAY AND THUS
SLOWED TIMING OF INITIAL RAIN DEVELOPMENT UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING
GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF EC AND WITH GFS AGREEMENT.

MAIN ACTIVE PERIOD WILL START MONDAY AFTN THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN AS A
ONCE PHASED NRN/SRN STREAM H5 S/WV TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
DECOUPLES OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WHILE PWATS CLIMB TOWARDS 1.3-1.5".
COMBINATION OF WEAK QG LIFT FROM SRN BRANCH SPLIT OVERTOP SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS /500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE/ MON AFTN SHOULD HELP
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
AREAS OF THE ARKLAMISS. INSTABILITY WILL WANE INTO THE EVENING BUT
WITH MID LEVEL FORCING LINGERING, SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY /750-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ WILL
RETURN WITH DIABATIC HEATING TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
AS THE POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST INTO AL. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF GENERAL TSTORMS TUES
AFTN BUT SHEAR/VERTICAL TOTALS LOOK MEAGER AT BEST TO SUPPORT
ANYTHING MORE ROBUST AT THIS TIME. ALSO, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
NOT LIKELY WITH THIS SET-UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SWOLLEN
RIVERS TO FALL. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO MID NEXT WEEK. /ALLEN/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR THE SE WHERE
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HBG) TO SEE SOME IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VIS
BETWEEN 11-15Z THIS MORNING. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 15Z
WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO BUILD NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS OF  1.5-2.5
KFT OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES DURING THE EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME VCNTY SHRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY 01-03Z./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       69  54  74  50 /   4  30  21   3
MERIDIAN      68  51  72  46 /   4  33  27   6
VICKSBURG     69  54  76  51 /   4  26  21   3
HATTIESBURG   69  54  74  50 /   5  41  28   4
NATCHEZ       68  54  76  52 /   5  28  20   5
GREENVILLE    70  53  75  52 /   4  18  16   3
GREENWOOD     71  53  74  50 /   4  19  16   4

&&


.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

17/ALLEN











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