Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 301520
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1020 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTH
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AND REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL. THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING
CONFIRMS MODEL FORECAST OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. RISK WITH
THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDES FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING
WINDS AROUND 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK GOOD SOUTH OF THE CURRENT STORMS BUT MAY BE A
LITTLE HIGH IN NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE STORMS. HOWEVER...DO NOT
PLAN ANY CHANGES SINCE JUST A LITTLE SUN THIS AFTERNOON COULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE QUICKLY. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS GETTING AN EARLY START TODAY AND TSTMS WL
CONT TO AFFECT SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 THIS MORNING. TSTM
COVERAGE WL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN LOWERED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO HBG. AWAY FROM TSTMS VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. CONVECTION WL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT./22/15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

..SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR CWA WILL BRING A FEW
SHORTWAVES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AT TIMES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HELPING SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS JUST NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 82 FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SECOND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE NOTED DROPPING SOUTH OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SWING ACROSS OUR CWA LATER TODAY DURING MAX HEATING AND HELP SUPPORT
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND TO
THE RED RIVER. A SURFACE RIDGE WAS ALSO NOTED NOSING WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF THE WILL SERVE TO MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK UP
AROUND 1.75 INCHES WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S TO FUEL
A GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS TODAY. THE EARLIER START TO CONVECTION
MAY HINDER STRONGER DESTABILIZATION ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTH BUT THE
LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND VERTICAL TOTALS OF 27-28. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA BY MIDNIGHT. HEIGHTS WL BE HIGHER
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS
EXPECTED LIMIT CONVECTION WEDNESDAY BUT A MOIST AIRMASS WILL STILL
RESIDE OVER OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AND WL STILL HAVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER OUR REGION. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WL SWING ACROSS THE REGION TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION BUT NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. PARAMETERS LOOK
LESS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY AND GREATEST POPS WL BE
CARRIED OVER OUR NORTHEAST. /22/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...THURSDAY WE WILL HAVE AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OF RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE NEAR THE
CWA. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL MODIFY SOME AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSES THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. OUR HEIGHTS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SPREADS EAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BECOME
ORIENTED MORE ALONG THE GULF COAST. TOGETHER THESE RIDGES WILL RESULT
IN MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. THERE REMAINS SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVES IN THE MODELS WHICH WILL
AFFECT THE MEAN TROUGH OF THE EASTERN US. THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO
HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE CANADIAN AND GFS ARE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WETTEST OVER THE CWA. MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA AND REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IS EXPECTED
OVER OUR NORTH. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
OVER OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR CWA ALONG WITH GENERALLY NORMAL
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS./17/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       87  72  90  74 /  59  25  19  25
MERIDIAN      87  71  90  73 /  65  29  21  37
VICKSBURG     88  72  91  74 /  57  22  21  21
HATTIESBURG   88  72  91  73 /  56  24  32  22
NATCHEZ       89  73  90  74 /  52  21  25  21
GREENVILLE    88  73  92  75 /  50  26  24  43
GREENWOOD     87  72  90  74 /  63  29  26  48

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

JAN



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