Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 310218 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
818 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. /27/


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY VEER FROM THE NE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AROUND TO THE SE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS./26/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. A FAIRLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...EVEN CALM AT TIMES
IN SOME LOCALES...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH WILL PREVENT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING.

SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE E/ESE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SATURDAY BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING AROUND TO SE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL DELAY SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM SET
TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ON SATURDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/NW GULF. MEANWHILE A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AND WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER NORTH...
SUGGESTING BETTER MOISTURE RETURN OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BE TOO LITTLE TOO LATE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS RAW MODEL DEWPOINTS STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE LOWER 60S EVEN IN THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE AREA. IN SPITE
OF THE MEAGER INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES OVER NORTHEASTERN ZONES IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. WHILE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE MAY BE
SUPPORTIVE OF FLURRIES OVER A LARGER AREA...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS
MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP IN THOSE AREAS. FOR NOW...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES WAS ADDED FOR THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA.
THIS IS NOT A SITUATION THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO ANYTHING OTHER THAN A
FEW BRIEF FLURRIES. /DL/

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH COULD DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LOCATIONS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR EXPERIENCE MARGINAL HARD
FREEZE CRITERIA IN THE MON-TUES TIME FRAME..BUT FOR THE MOST PART
JUST EXPECT A TYPICAL MID-WINTER COLD SNAP WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY AFTERNOON WHILE LOWS DIP WELL
INTO THE 20S MONDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID/LATE NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN SHOWING THAT THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL KICK OUT
AND DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WHILE ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY CHILLY AIR SURGES SOUTH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. AS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED...MODELS DO
NOT LINK THE SYSTEM/COLD AIR UP IN TIME TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP IN
THE ARKLAMISS...SO EXPECT THIS WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT IF THE
TRENDS CONTINUE. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF INCONSISTENCY AND MODEL
SPREAD IN JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR MOVES BEHIND THE SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK...BUT THE COLD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS.
/EC/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       32  60  48  64 /   0   0  44  88
MERIDIAN      28  59  45  62 /   0   0  29  76
VICKSBURG     32  60  50  64 /   0   5  49  91
HATTIESBURG   32  62  47  67 /   0   0  31  61
NATCHEZ       33  61  51  66 /   0   5  51  86
GREENVILLE    31  55  46  61 /   0   5  53  95
GREENWOOD     28  59  47  61 /   0   3  44  91

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






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