Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 020218 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
818 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING NW FROM SE MS AT THE MOMENT HAS
SHOWN LITTLE SIGNS OF MOVEMENT THE LAST FEW HOURS. NEVERTHELESS...THE
NAM IS INDICATING THAT AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL PICK UP SOME EASTWARD SPEED OVERNIGHT.

UPDATED MINIMUMS AND HOURLY TEMP GRIDS OVERNIGHT CLOSE TO THE 00Z HRRR
SOLUTION. ALSO...INCREASED POPS IN THE SOUTH AS THAT IS WHERE THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIP HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. ADDED SOME
THUNDER POSSIBILITIES TO THE FAR SE AS SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING HAS
BEEN OBSERVED. ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG AS IT MAY BECOME A PROBLEM
TOWARD DAWN WHEN THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN A BIT./26/


&&


.AVIATION...IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS/VSBY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
INTERMITTENT RAIN OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY DRIZZLE AND FOG
BY 02/12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FROM
THE EAST./26/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

.DISCUSSION...AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY MANY OF US WERE ENJOYING SOME
SUN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. TODAY...THE FIRST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL SPRING...HAS BEEN QUITE THE OPPOSITE. AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH SITS ACROSS OUR REGION...SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN PROGRESSIVELY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OF THESE
STORMS HAVE GOTTEN A LITTLE ROBUST WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS BUT OVERALL THEY HAVE REMAINED SUBSEVERE. WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE RAIN...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ON
THE COOLER SIDE TODAY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3PM ARE IN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THE DELTA HAS ONLY REACHED THE LOWER 40S
WHILE THE PINE BELT IS IN THE LOWER 60S...A SPREAD OF 20 DEGREES.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL SHOVE THE INVERTED TROUGH OFF
TO THE EAST BUT THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
ON THE COLDER SIDE IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S MONDAY THANKS TO RAIN
AND CLOUDS. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE CLOUDS BUT HIGHS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 60S ONCE AGAIN. THIS STALLED FRONT...WHICH
LOOKS LIKE SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE AROUND THE I-20 TO HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR...WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED
EARLIER IN THE EVENING THANKS TO THE NORTHWARD MOVING FRONT. IN
ADDITION...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST.

UPPER RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL
INFLUENCE OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. WITH THE WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH WE
SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH WELL INTO THE 70S. WHILE THERE ARE SOME
CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST...I WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED IF
WE DIDNT SEE ANY RAIN ON TUESDAY GIVEN THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE...SOME CAPPING PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THAT THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY WHERE THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL ACTUALLY BE NEGATIVE. I SCALED BACK SOME ON POPS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20 TO COVER THIS. HOWEVER...I CANT RULE OUT
THAT WE COULD SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ON TUESDAY.

OUR NEXT...AND MORE IMPACTFUL...WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE AS A
998MB SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DROP A STRONG COLD
FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO THE REGION AND THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR DUE
TO MORE HEATING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE DELTA
REGION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE PRECIPITATION IS STILL
OCCURRING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY(HENCE THE HIGH
POPS) BUT THERE STILL REMAINS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE THOUGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH EACH
MODEL RUN. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WINTER EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH...AT THIS
TIME...THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE BEING FREEZING RAIN WITH A TRANSITION TO
SOME SLEET OR SNOW NEARING THE END.

ALL LOCATIONS WILL START OFF AS RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
COLDER AIR SINKS INTO THE DELTA LATE AFTERNOON...THERE LOOKS TO BE A
CHANGEOVER TO SOME FREEZING RAIN OR MAYBE SOME SLEET AS THE LOWER
LEVELS COOL OFF BUT ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE EXISTS FROM ABOUT
700-900MB. THIS CHANGEOVER LINE WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARD THE NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT SOME
POINT AFTER MIDNIGHT...ENOUGH OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL HAVE
COOLED TO SUPPORT SOME CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY.
SOME OF THE MODELS KEEP SHOWING THE COLDER AIR PENETRATING ALL THE
WAY TO THE PINE BELT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN THERE.
WHILE THIS COULD PAN OUT...HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THEM ALL RAIN AT
THIS POINT BUT KEPT THE TREND OF BRINGING THE CHANCES OF RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN FURTHER SOUTH OF I-20. AS THIS EVENT IS STILL ABOUT
3-4 DAYS OUT...WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW DOWN THE DETAILS WITH EACH
PROGRESSIVE MODEL RUN AND FORECAST. WE DID MAKE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
TO THE ORIENTATION OF OUR HWO AND GRAPHICS LIMITED AREA BUT OVERALL
THINKING REMAINS THE SAME FOR THOSE.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH AN ELONGATED 1040MB SFC HIGH MOVING INTO OUR
REGION. THIS WILL RESIDE OVER US THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SFC LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN
GULF AND THIS COULD BRING SOME MOISTURE AND SMALL RAIN CHANCES BACK
TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH THE RAIN THAN THE GFS BUT
SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR NEXT WEEKEND. LETS JUST HOPE MODELS DONT
TREND COLDER WITH THIS AS MANY(INCLUDING MYSELF) ARE READY FOR AN
END TO WINTER. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...
THIS TAF PERIOD WILL BE ONE OF PERSISTENT IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS WITH ON/OFF SHRA AND -RA. THE FOCUS WILL BE TO TIME SOME
PRECIP IN THE FIRST 6 HRS AS BEST POSSIBLE AND BECOME MORE GENERAL
WITH TIME. DUE TO A SFC FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24-36
HRS...SFC WINDS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS TO DETERMINE DIRECTION...BUT
OVERALL WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 8-10KTS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE GLH WHERE N/NE WINDS CLOSER TO 15 KTS LOOK TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       54  58  55  74 / 100  75  31  23
MERIDIAN      53  59  54  75 / 100  65  34  21
VICKSBURG     45  55  51  77 /  98  79  26  23
HATTIESBURG   58  67  59  75 / 100  46  28  16
NATCHEZ       51  58  55  76 /  99  71  26  16
GREENVILLE    38  48  45  73 / 100  95  44  42
GREENWOOD     44  51  49  72 / 100  93  50  41

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/





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