Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 240213 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
913 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ANY STORMS THAT WERE IN NE LA HAVE WEAKENED AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 04Z TONIGHT
BEFORE THE HRRR/HI-RES ARW/NMM INDICATE SHOWERS DWINDLING AND BEING
DRY THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL STAY LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH 15Z
SUNDAY. ONLY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE TO TRIM POPS A
LITTLE FURTHER WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND REMOVE POPS
AFTER 04Z. ALSO SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED LOWS UPWARD ALONG/W OF I-55
CORRIDOR DUE TO CLOUD COVER IN THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL FLOW STAYING
UP DUE TO GRADUAL INCREASE IN SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SRN PLAINS. AREAS IN THE NE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER DUE TO SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER FROM HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE ERN CONUS WHILE MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN
FROM THE W/SW. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY GRIDS TO CURRENT
TRENDS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT ALL SITES WITH CONDITIONS MAINLY VFR DURING THIS TIME. A
FEW EXCEPTIONS TOWARDS DAWN MAY OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE MVFR
CEILING AND VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE (ALONG WITH PERHAPS A STRAY
SHOWER). AFTER SUNUP TOMORROW MVFR CEILINGS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD...ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CATS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
BY MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WINDS VEER A FEW POINTS AND STIFFEN
UP TO OCCASIONALLY 20 MPH. SHOWERS AND STORMS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL BE FAR MORE NUMEROUS THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS
AFTERNOON HAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO. OUR CWA WAS STILL BEING
DOMINATED BY THE SURFACE HIGH AND A DRIER AIR MASS BUT A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WAS APPROACHING OUR SOUTHWEST MOST
ZONES. MOST OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER OUR SOUTHWEST. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST SUNDAY
WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVELS WILL
AMPLIFY WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL SPELL A WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR CWA
THAT LOOKS TO LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE OVER
OUR REGION SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES INCLUDING THE RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. THE SHORTWAVE IS PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA SUNDAY
EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS AND PWS ABOVE AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES.
CONSIDERING THE HELICITY SOME MODELS DEPICT OVER THE AREA AS WELL...A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL WAIN WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THROUGH THE EVENING BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HEATING CONTRIBUTING
TO AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. THE MOST INTENSE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY EVENING IN OUR WEST AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND COMBINES WITH
OUR MOIST AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. /22/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA TUESDAY BUT THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS AND CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF
OUR AREA. TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER CLOUDY
AND WET DAY. MODELS SUGGEST HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AGAIN WHERE ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY FALL.
WEDNESDAY ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS OUR REGION AND COMBINES WITH OUR MOIST AIR MASS AND
DAYTIME HEATING. LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGHTENS FROM THE WESTERN GULF ACROSS
OUR CWA. DAYTIME HEATING OF OUR MOIST AIR MASS THAT WILL STILL RESIDE
OVER OUR CWA SHOULD LEAD TO ATLEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH A CLOSED
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEREFORE DRIER FOR US
SATURDAY. ASSUMING A LITTLE FASTER PROGRESSION...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  85  70  82 /   9  48  53  70
MERIDIAN      66  86  69  81 /   7  32  49  64
VICKSBURG     70  86  71  81 /  13  50  72  74
HATTIESBURG   71  86  71  83 /  11  43  50  60
NATCHEZ       71  85  70  82 /  15  67  69  74
GREENVILLE    70  85  70  81 /  13  65  77  74
GREENWOOD     69  85  70  80 /   6  50  68  73

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/BB/22


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