Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 232019
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

NOT AS MUCH CONVECTION POPPED UP TODAY AS ANTICIPATED DESPITE PWS
BEING NEAR 2 INCHES AND ABOVE 2000 J/KG CAPE CALCULATED FROM THIS
MORNING`S SOUNDING. SCATTERED CU COVER THE CWA CURRENTLY WITH JUST A
FEW RADAR ECHOES ACROSS THE AREA. WHATEVER IS LEFT AROUND SUNSET
TONIGHT WILL DIE QUICKLY.

WATCHING THE TROUGH AXIS/FRONT MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH ARKANSAS
AND OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD
ALSO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA ON THURSDAY. ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD IGNITE MORE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL STALL IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW EVENING. WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. FRIDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY
QUIET WITH ONLY POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA. STUCK WITH MOS GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED JUST A TAD SINCE THE AREA HAS BEEN REALLY STRUGGLING TO
REACH TEMPS IN THE 90S. MOS LOW TEMPS LOOK GOOD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER
13Z. /10/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES...
WHILE LONGWAVE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES.  THIS`LL ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF RAIN-FREE DAYS AT A
TIME...FOLLOWED BY A DAY OR TWO OF INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRIES TO PUSH A FRONT SOUTH INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT NOW RESIDING SOUTH OF THE CWA.  SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SUBTLY RETURN TO THE CWA AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSH INTO AND THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.  THIS THEN LOOKS TO BE FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS
OF QUITE WEATHER...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH SOME MORE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AT THAT
TIME.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FOR THE MOST PART I STUCK
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOWS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...
I DID ADJUST HIGHS DOWN A BIT HERE AND THERE EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  BOTH DAYS...I LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD AS I FELT UPPER 90S WERE TOO HIGH.  MUCH OF THIS
STEMS FROM JUST THE PATTERN IN GENERAL WE`RE CURRENTLY OBSERVING AND
THE AFFECTS OF RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA KEEPING A HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE SOIL AND VEGETATION OVER THE AREA.  AS A
RESULT... HIGHS FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE NOW FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS SURPRISINGLY SOMEWHAT MORE SPARSE TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. NEVERTHELESS...WHAT IS OUT THERE WILL LINGER INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. MVFR VISIBILITIES LOOK PROBABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT MEI AND HBG WHERE THE MOST RAINFALL HAS
OCCURRED LATELY. /26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  92  70  93 /   8  27  16   9
MERIDIAN      68  91  69  93 /  11  31  20  11
VICKSBURG     68  92  68  91 /   5  19  14   8
HATTIESBURG   69  92  72  94 /  13  31  21  22
NATCHEZ       69  91  70  91 /  10  21  16  13
GREENVILLE    72  91  66  92 /   7  15   8   6
GREENWOOD     70  89  64  93 /   7  23   9   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

/10/19/26/





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