Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 290837
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
337 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED
THE AREA AND DRY/COOL AIR CONTINUES TO OOZE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. SOME CU NOTED IN IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER FAR N MS
AND LATEST HRRR DATA SHOWING SOME POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES WITH
THESE TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LIMITED HEAT OF THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER TODAY WITH MAXIMUMS NOT MAKING
OUT OF THE 80S OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS AND AROUND 90
ELSEWHERE. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT...BUT AT THE MOMENT THE RESULTING CIRRUS LOOKS TO BE
THIN AND SCATTERED IN NATURE. WIDESPREAD RECORD LOWS...THEREFORE...
LOOK PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. CURRENT RECORDS... SOME LONG
STANDING...ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. THESE VALUES LOOK TO EASILY BE
BROKEN IN THE EAST WITH MID/UPPER 50S EXPECTED. RECORDS IN THE WEST
WILL BE A LITTLE HARDER TO BREAK WITH EXPECTED MINS AROUND 60.

APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BEGIN MOVING OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN
INCREASING/THICKENING VEIL OF CIRRUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING DURING THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS BREAKING OUT AFTER
MIDNIGHT FROM THE NW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE 310K THETA INCREASES.
NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH...IF ANY...THUNDER AT THE ONSET AS LAPSE RATES
REMAIN MEAGER AND SHOWALTERS WELL ABOVE ZERO./26/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY UNUSUAL SITUATION FOR LATE JULY AND EARLY
AUGUST. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

MODELS BRING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL WAVE CROSSES THE
REGION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE LEAD WAVE WILL PULL EAST OF THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...
INSTABILITY AND MORE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
STORMS EACH DAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FOR RAINFALL WILL RETURN
TO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BY THIS WEEKEND. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
CEILINGS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 4KFT. SOME SPRINKLES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE TODAY BUT HAVE NO IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       88  60  87  66 /  10   2   5  13
MERIDIAN      89  57  87  62 /  10   2   5  10
VICKSBURG     88  59  87  64 /  10   2   5  19
HATTIESBURG   91  64  89  65 /   3   2   2   6
NATCHEZ       87  61  86  66 /   3   2   2  11
GREENVILLE    85  60  85  65 /  10   2  13  32
GREENWOOD     85  56  84  63 /  10   2   8  22

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






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