Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 231443 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
943 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED IN THE GRIDS. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. SOME CIRRUS TRYING TO SPILL OVER
THE RIDGE AXIS FROM E TX INTO MO...BUT IT QUICKLY DISSIPATES AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA./26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PREVAIL. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-8KTS
WILL BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT./15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TONIGHT THEN WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY.  EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWED A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE
GEORGIA-SOUTH CAROLINA STATE LINE WITH A MID LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
OVER MEXICO. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AND
WEAKEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST TO
NORTH FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
HIGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS
WILL HELP MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE
00Z TUE JAN SOUNDING HAD A PW OF .56 INCHES. THIS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
NEAR 85 DEGREES AND NORMAL LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 80S AND THEN CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE
MID 80S WEDNESDAY. OUR DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL MORNING LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOST SITES BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 50S TONIGHT AND NEAR 60 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /22/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY ITEM OF
INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH
MODEL PROGGED PWATS STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE AN INCH THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER CHANGES WILL BE OCCURRING IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...SETTING UP OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
DRIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE NUDGED BACK EASTWARD BY THE
WEEKEND AS A SHARPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST.

ON SATURDAY SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO EVEN
NORTHEAST...BUT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WINDS WILL ALREADY BE IN
THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH...BRINGING ABOUT FAIRLY RAPID
MOISTURE RECOVERY THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT REGIME. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THE EURO SHOWING A MORE WELL-DEFINED
LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AS IT BRINGS THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE CUTOFF LOW FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA...WITH A LESS
ORGANIZED SURFACE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH
THE SURFACE FEATURES SINCE YESTERDAY. WITH EITHER SCENARIO...IT
SEEMS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL A BIT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PIN DOWN
A SPECIFIC TIME FRAME FOR HIGHER POPS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD BECOME A POSSIBILITY AT SOME POINT DURING THIS PERIOD.

BY MONDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE MAKING FOR CONTINUED LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE GFS SHOWS TWO PRONOUNCED CUTOFF LOWS OVER
THE CONUS WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES AROUND INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT
WEEK. THE EURO DEPICTS A BROADER UPPER TROUGH...WHICH THE NEARBY
CUTOFF LOW BECOMES ABSORBED INTO. THIS ALLOWS THE SURFACE LOW TO
LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS BUILDING BY TUESDAY. FOR THE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE
PERIOD...OPTED TO TREND TOWARD ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS DRIER
THAN THE GFS/MEX. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       83  57  85  60 /   0   0   0   2
MERIDIAN      83  54  84  59 /   0   0   0   2
VICKSBURG     83  54  85  57 /   0   0   0   2
HATTIESBURG   86  60  86  61 /   0   0   0   2
NATCHEZ       81  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   2
GREENVILLE    82  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   2
GREENWOOD     82  55  84  59 /   0   0   0   2

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$






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