Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 011514
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE NOSING WEST OVER THE
GULF COAST. THE RESULTING LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WAS
HELPING MAINTAIN A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING BUT DRIER AIR
WAS NOTED ON AREA SOUNDINGS JUST ABOVE THIS LAYER. THE 12Z MON JAN
SOUNDING SHOWED A PW OF 1.63IN WHICH IS QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIMIT CONVECTION IN MOST AREAS BUT A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AND FUEL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THERE. THE CURRENT FORECAST ACCOUNTS
FOR THIS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED THIS MORNING. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR FLIGHT CATS STILL BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING...
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE SOUTH WINDS UP TO 15 MPH AT TIMES WITH MIDDAY
TO AFTERNOON CU BASED FROM 3 TO 6 KFT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MIDDAY
TO AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED SOUTH OF
I-20. FOR LATE TONIGHT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR
RANGE TO DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK IN ALL AREAS WITH DENSE FOG MOST LIKELY
AROUND HBG/PIB. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY (MOSTLY
CONFINED TO SW/S AREAS). SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE IN ACTIVITY AND
AREA ON EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

BEGINNINGS OF LOW STRATUS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 3AM
ALONG HWY 98 CORRIDOR AND EXPECT IT TO EXPAND OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL
AREAS THROUGH 8-9AM. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THAT SAME TIME FRAME BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE DENSE. LOW CLOUDS/FOG
WILL MIX OUT THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS WITH GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN
EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN. DRIER AIR IN THE H925 TO H7 LAYER AS EVIDENT
WITH 00Z KJAN RAOB OF 1.56" WILL PIVOT NORTH AND ALLOW FOR NEAR 2"
PWATS TO SHIFT INTO SW/S/CENTRAL AREAS FROM THE GULF. THE ADDED
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH EXPECTED SFC BASED INSTABILITY ABOVE 2000
J/KG IN SW/W/CENTRAL AREAS SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
TAME AND DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY FEATURE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS FOR
SRN AREAS WITH MOIST S/SE LOW-LVL FLOW AS WEAK H85-H5 RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER SE CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME FLATTENED INTO
TUESDAY AFTN AS A S/WV TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND PUSHES A BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH. THE ARKLAMISS
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED
WITH SUBTLE WAVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD HELP ENHANCE INSTABILITY
DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND POTENCY. FEEL GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL STILL BE IN SW/W AREAS NEAR MS RIVER DURING THE AFTN
BUT SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT INTO NORTH AREAS LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /ALLEN/

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD IN
THAT PATTERN OVER THE LOWER CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY FLAT
RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYERED RIDGE. AS MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NORTH MS...FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN
EASTERLY AND AFFECTED BY ANY WAVES MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AS WELL SERVING TO KEEP MOISTURE
PLENTIFUL WITH PW/S REMAINING AROUND 2 INCHES.

HARD TO FIND ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES IN THE FLOW DURING THIS PERIOD.
WHILE THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO BENEFIT MOST FROM THE WARMING FROM
THE RIDGE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TEMPS REMAIN SOMEWHAT COOL (NEAR -10C AT
H5) ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON VERTICAL TOTALS IN THE MID 20S. BELIEVE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DOMINATE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE SOUTH. SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH...BUT WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT ITS NORTHWARD EXTENT EACH DAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO DIP INTO NORTHERN MS ON SUNDAY
SERVING TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THE NORTH BY THAT
TIME./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       93  74  93  73 /  18  11  22  14
MERIDIAN      94  72  94  72 /  13   9  20  14
VICKSBURG     93  74  93  72 /  21  13  28  16
HATTIESBURG   94  75  94  74 /  26  12  31  17
NATCHEZ       91  74  92  73 /  32  16  35  21
GREENVILLE    93  74  93  74 /   7   9  20  14
GREENWOOD     93  73  93  73 /   6   9  21  19

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/BB/ALLEN/26








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