Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KJAN 021512 CCA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT STRONG MIXING IS UNDERWAY AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST. WOULD NOT RULE OUT
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE HATTIESBURG AREA AS THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE OF INCREASING SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...BUT WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.12 INCHES IN THE KLIX SOUNDING...WILL
HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING SHOWER CHANCES TO THE FORECAST. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN AND TODAY SHOULD BE
ANOTHER FANTASTIC DAY FOR FLYING. WINDS WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER AROUND 5-10KTS
WITH SOME BRIEFLY HIGHER GUSTS. /28/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER DRY/PLEASANT...
ALBEIT...HOT DAY IS IN STORE TODAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS
REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE AUGUST SUN WILL TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THIS DRY
AIRMASS ALLOWING TEMPS TO SHOOT UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S IN A DEEP
MIXING REGIME. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER
THE TN VALLEY...DIPPING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TODAY...MIXED LAYER
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS RESULTING IN SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.
NEVERTHELESS...LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY IN
GRASSY AREAS THAT HAVE BROWNED OUT FROM THE RECENT HOT/DRY
CONDITIONS. FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
MOVING INTO MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING
HIGHER DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO./26/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES.
WITH MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A RETURN OF THE HUMID
CONDITIONS.

UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS NORTHWEST
FLOW RETURNS. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATING A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA KICKING
OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LITTLE WILL CHANGE ON THURSDAY WITH
PWATS RANGING FROM 1.8-2.0 INCHES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAT WILL RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD ALSO...WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING ABOVE
105 DEGREES. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL ONCE AGAIN PROBABLY BE NEEDED
DURING THIS PERIOD.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND DROPPING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND./15/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.