Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 211137 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
537 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:

Heaviest thunderstorms ongoing around HBG will be transitioning
to lighter thunderstorms over the next hour or two. Further north
expect lighter thunderstorms to continue to impact CBM/GTR/MEI/NMM
for the next hour or two. By 15 UTC expect all precipitation to clear
the region will any lingering lower ceilings in the MVFR range
trending to VFR before noon. Winds will generally range from the east
to south through the bulk of the day and could begin getting gusty
later in the afternoon. Expect more scattered and potentially potent
thunderstorms to get going by early this evening across the region
and have potential to affect most stations through the night. /BB/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today...Upscale growth of overnight convection has led to an
expansive cloud shield evident in IR imagery this morning. This
ongoing severe convection will have just about pushed out of the
forecast area by sunrise, but some lingering showers will be seen in
the east. The rest of the day will be mild as shortwave ridging takes
control./26/

Tonight through Friday...Second round of severe thunderstorms will
be entering the southwestern sections of the forecast area by late
afternoon/early evening as favored quad of 100+ knot H3 jet begins
nosing into the region. Lapse rates will continue to steepen
as the mid level cold core low moves out of the TX panhandle into
southwest AR. Lower 30s vertical totals with 7-8 C/km lapse rates
along with 20-30 knots of 0-1 km bulk shear/60-70 knots 0-6 km bulk shear
will promote very robust rotating updrafts with all modes of severe
weather in play. The northwestern three fourths will see the
greatest potential of severe weather as the rest of the area will
still be capped from shortwave ridging behind prior comvective
complex. Severe convection should push east of the area by 22/09Z,
however, the track of the cold core low over north MS Sunday will
continue steep lapse rates in a shallow troposphere. Despite
dewpoints in the 50s, think some small hail will be possible in the
continued thunderstorm activity. Convection will pull away from the
northeast by late Sunday night.

A dry and somewhat cool couple of days will set up over the area for
the first part of the work week due to mid level ridging. Southerly
flow will return by Tuesday along with warmer temperatures and an
increase in moisture. Progressive flow pattern will quickly push the
mid level ridge eastward as troughiness develops over the
Intermountain West and the western High Plains. This will put our
region firmly in a southwest flow regime serving to deepen
warmth/moisture. A mostly dry cold front will move quickly out of
the Plains and into the region late Tuesday night. As it encounters
the moist airmass over the region, showers will break out along the
boundary as it passes through Wednesday. This boundary looks to
finally bring in some cooler weather by the end of the week./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       76  56  65  43 /  26  68  59  14
Meridian      75  57  65  44 /  72  67  65  27
Vicksburg     75  55  64  43 /  16  69  44  10
Hattiesburg   75  58  67  46 /  65  64  51  18
Natchez       75  55  65  44 /  17  61  36   8
Greenville    72  54  62  42 /  18  83  65  24
Greenwood     74  55  63  43 /  23  85  75  34

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

26/BB



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