Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 190351
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1051 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ATTM BUT EXPECT
IT TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS FIRE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...BUT MORE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF SOUTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 14.
NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...BUT CAN`T RULE
OUT A FEW STONES BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO WINDS AND
ALSO THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.

RAIN MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD EAST OF CWFA
BY NOON. WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER BACK INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY,..BUT I AM CONCERNED A LITTLE WITH THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
THAT MAY BE FILTERED BY CLOUDS AND BY SMOKE FROM NORTHWESTERN
FIRES. WENT A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY SO EVEN WITH THE
AFFECTS OF THE SMOKE...WE SHOULD GET BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

A LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...AIDING IN WEAK THETA E ADVECTION...AS A SHORTWAVE
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THAT...CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THOUGH OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE PRETTY LIMITED SO KEPT
POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

OTHER THAN SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE EAST DURING THE
MORNING ON SUNDAY...THINK THAT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY
WITH WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WARM UP ON
SUNDAY WITH RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH OUR MINNESOTA/IOWA ZONES TO UPPER 90S THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH THESE TEMPERATURES AND CLIMBING DEW
POINTS...INTO THE LOWER 70S...WILL BEGIN TO TOUCH ON HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LOWER JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...AND WITH CONTINUED WARMING HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO NEAR
100 FROM EAST TO WEST RESPECTIVELY. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OVER MOST OF THE CWA. BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN OUR NORTH AND EAST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TUESDAY TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN TAPER DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...THOUGH STILL JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS/ECMWF THEN CONVERGE ON ANOTHER CHANCE OF
CONVECTION SOMETIME IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TOPS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

PROBABILITY OF THUNDER AT THIS TIME IS JUST TOO SMALL TO MENTION
FOR A POINT FORECAST SUCH AS A TAF...AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH 06Z SUN. ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SOME
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING.  THERE IS ALSO A
VERY SMALL PROSPECT FOR VISIBILITY TO SINK INTO MVFR RANGE AROUND
KSUX...BUT LIKELY ENOUGH GRADIENT TO PREVENT. OVERALL...THE WIND
GRADIENT WILL BE LOWER ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK BOUNDARY SAGGING
TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 90 AREA...WITH STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SW MN...WHERE A FEW GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HEITKAMP
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...CHAPMAN




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