Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 310349

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1149 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Issued at 1011 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Still a few lingering showers and thunderstorms across northern
lower Michigan within moist environment and along passing mid
level wave. Lake breeze convergence only helping the cause,
especially across northeast lower. Deep moisture axis will
gradually drop southeast overnight, and will simply follow it for
continued low end pop placement until it exits to our south in the
early morning hours. No severe weather expected, but any
shower/storm will be capable of brief heavy rains. Otherwise,
really no significant changes to that which was inherited.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Isolated to scattered convection did develop as anticipated this
afternoon with the most coverage in the northeastern portion of the
forecast area. This activity is associated with an incoming upper
level trough and surface cold front which was located across the
Mackinac/Chippewa county line at the time of this writing. This
front will continue to sag slowly southward through this evening
with additional showers and thunderstorms possible out ahead of it.
Drier air moving in behind the front (mean 1000-500 mb rh of about
30 percent) will advect in overnight yielding precipitation free
conditions along with a bit of a northwest wind and clearing skies.
Dewpoints will be slow to fall so it will remain rather muggy
through much of the night. Surface high pressure nosing in from
northern Manitoba is expected to result in sunshine mixed with some
diurnally generated cumulus (due to cooler air aloft) Wednesday.
Lows tonight in the middle 50s to lower 60s with highs Wednesday in
the cooler lower and middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Wednesday night through Friday...

High impact weather potential: none.

Cooler/less humid airmass firmly entrenched across the region early
in the period. High pressure that starts the long term period near
Hudson Bay will move slowly southward, and will be overhead by late
Friday. Airmass will start to moderate by then, as cool/dry
advection ceases.

850mb temps will drop as low as 8c over the northern lakes late Wed
night into Thu. Delta Ts will range from 7c on Superior, to 12c on
northern Huron, to 14c on northern Lake MI. This lines up with a
vigorous shortwave dropping south out of Canada, and a corresponding
increasing in 850-500mb moisture late Wed night into Thu morning.
However, that increase in moisture is not impressive, as the entire
system is starved in the department. And the NNE 1000-850mb fetch is
generally unfavorable to bring the lakes into play. Will continue to
go with a dry forecast, though may have some lake-induced stratocu
(especially ne lower MI, and along the immediate nw lower MI coast).
Clouds look to be decreasing in the Thu night/Friday timeframe, as
the airmass moderates.

Min temps Wed night will be mainly near 50 to the mid 50s, as a
northerly breeze will stay up in most places. Some interior locales
will drip into the 40s. Thu night looks still and thus cooler, with
40s much more common, and the chilly spots will approach 40f.

Max temps Thu will be mainly within a few degrees of 70f. On Fri,
tack on a few degrees to those expected Thu readings.

Thursday night through Monday...

Models remain in good agreement through the first half of the
extended, before disagreeing on how to handle the start of the new
work week. But first, the 500mb pattern shows a trough scooching off
the eastern seaboard by weeks end, as a prominent ridge over the
central conus edges eastward and troughing stretches from the
northern rockies down the west side. High pressure at the surface
will dominate the scene through Sunday, with dry weather and
abundant sunshine. Above normal daytime temperatures are expected
from Saturday on...with overnight lows right around climo.

As the aforementioned high pushes east, the next weather maker moves
in for an ETA of late Monday/Tuesday. The euro is more bullish on
pops, bringing showers and thunderstorms from around mid day
on...whereas the GFS seems to capture the process of the front
edge/first wave eroding as it moves over the lakes, as often is the
case...thus pushing the best chances overnight Monday or Tuesday
morning. Now that said...both solutions show a quick moving surface
low riding up from the central plains to northern Ontario on
Tuesday. My guess is that this will be the trigger for the best
chance of showers and thunderstorms for northern Michigan. However,
such details 7 days out ought to be taken with a shaker of salt. Not
to mention the wild card in the mix. The Atlantic is getting active
and any tropical storm type activity near the coast could stall the
progression of everything we just discussed.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1146 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Lingering low level moisture has resulted in some fog at KMBL, and
some mvfr stcu at some of the other sites. Influx of drier air
early this morning should help improve conditions to mostly VFR.
Cooling aloft should bring a good deal of cu/stcu later this
morning and afternoon, although cloud bases look to remain VFR.
Will need to watch for potential arrival of lower cigs later in
the evening. Light winds tonight become a touch gusty out of the
northwest to north later this morning and afternoon.


Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016

A surface cold front will continue to sag across the nearshore
waters through this evening with isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms out ahead of it. Winds will shift into the northwest
behind the front and will be a little gusty on Wednesday.
Isolated small craft advisory winds are possible later tonight
into Wednesday but no headlines will be hoisted at this time.
High pressure centered over Manitoba will build in later Wednesday
and hold into Thursday.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Sullivan
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