Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 181122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
622 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

High impact weather potential: Patchy dense fog. Black ice concerns
through daybreak.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Early this morning, a shortwave trough was exiting the region with
the associated sfc low in the eastern Great Lakes. Low level
troughing extended back across nrn lower, likely still resulting in
some spotty drizzle/freezing drizzle with temperatures in the 32F to
35F range. However, latest radar imagery showing little to no
drizzle attm, as low level moisture thinning with time. It`s more of
a fog/freezing fog scenario with the fog and wet roads/sidewalks re-
freezing some of the wetness, resulting in areas of black ice. The
fog wasn`t particularly dense, but was widespread. Upstream, there
was some drier air seen across the western Great Lakes and nrn
Plains, but near sfc stratus and fog was redeveloping across
Wisconsin and SE MN in good radiational cooling.

Heading through the day, there doesn`t seem to be much change in the
weather. Low level moisture does continue to thin with time as the
low level troughing fades/exits east. Winds back more SW with time
pushing drier air up into nrn Michigan. All that said, an inversion
strengthens and lowers through the day and believe that stratus will
be locked in into the afternoon before any sort of partial clearing
can take place. So, most of the day will be cloudy with damp
conditions and slowly improving visibilities. If we do see skies
clearing late today, especially after there is an increase in low
level SW winds later today, there are strong hints that stratus/fog
can redevelop tonight. BL moisture remains high with minimal mixing
from the inversion, leaving wet near sfc conditions aided by melting
snow with temps remaining slightly above freezing and going no
higher than the mid to upper 30s. The increase in SW low level winds
may slow the redevelopment of stratus and fog tonight, but seeing
upstream satellite within those stronger winds, of redeveloping
stratus/fog, there is more confidence in the more dreary conditions
developing. Lows will not go too far in this scenario, likely not
falling out of the upper 20s and lower 30s.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Computer guidance is having a heck of a time deciphering the
anomalously warm pattern upcoming over the next week. This,
unfortunately will lead to a low confidence forecast. The main
forecast concerns revolve around pops starting Friday then
continuing through the remainder of the forecast. In addition, the
form of possible precipitation is in question, mainly late in the

Thursday and Thursday night...Rising upper level heights with weak
high pressure at the surface across the region. This should keep the
area precipitation free. Model soundings and cross sections hint at
low level clouds (stratus) trapped below a strengthening subsidence
inversion. This would inhibit deep mixing as temperatures aloft
increase. Still mild either way with highs in the upper 30s to lower
40s (with the potential for it to be even warmer). Lows in the 20s
to around 30 but it could be colder if we don`t have any low cloud

Friday and Friday night...Models have come full circle over the last
few days and are now keeping moisture riding up from the south
intact enough to allow for at least the possibility of precipitation
in the form of rain across northern Michigan. Highs in the lower and
middle 40s. Lows in the middle to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

The extended period will continue to feature plenty of
uncertainty. The one thing that seems set in stone is the
continuance of the very mild temperatures. As far as sensible
weather goes, guidance varies on the timing and strength of
possible systems moving up from the south. Due to a rather high
level of uncertainty will have to go with chance pops for mainly
rain (though I guess we do sneak into the likely category Monday
night). The rain may mix with or become all snow toward midweek
depending on how things evolve but there is little cold air
expected until later next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 621 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

IFR/LIFR conditions in stratus and fog are expected to prevail
through daybreak before CIGS may be lifting a little, but
remaining IFR for a good chunk of the day. VSBYS improving slowly
through the day. Stratus could be scoured out by late in the day,
but decently strong inversion could essentially trap stratus for
the TAF period. If there is some clearing, radiational cooling
tonight is expected to lead to a return of stratus and fog.


Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

Light northerly winds are backing out of the SW tonight and will
strengthen this morning as a brief tightening of the pressure
gradient develops with high pressure to our south and low pressure
north in Hudson Bay. Advisory level gusts expected to develop over
Lake Michigan and through the Straits, this morning and continue
into this evening. Winds weaken late tonight and stay below
advisory levels into Friday as the higher pressure becomes more of
an influence across the Great Lakes.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for LHZ345-346.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST
     Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.


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