Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 191403

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1003 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

Issued at 1001 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2016

No changes needed to current forecast. High pressure at the
surface firmly in control this morning. MCS that developed over
NE/IA drifting southeast so not even the cirrus blowoff will reach
our region.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Large area of high pressure remains centered over the heart of the
US early this morning...including the Great Lakes region. Remnants
of stratocu left over from yesterday`s scattered daytime cu
continues to gradually diminish from north to south...leaving mainly
clear skies in its wake. Temps are steadily cooling as skies clear
and winds become light/calm.

Surface high center will gradually slide east over the next 24
hours...shifting east of Michigan by late tonight. Little will
change thru tonight with strong subsidence and dry air thru the
column remaining in place. Skies will be mainly clear today and
tonight. Low level WAA will not begin until late tonight when low
level flow starts to shift to the south. Full sun and some airmass
modification will boost temps into the mid 70s to around 80 degrees
for afternoon highs despite low level flow remaining generally from
the north today. Clear and calm conditions tonight will allow temps
to fall into the mid 50s to around 60 late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2016

...Very warm and humid...

Much warmer and more humid conditions over the next few days as a
strong sprawling upper level ridge covering the southern half of the
country expands northward into the western Great Lakes and holds
through at least the end of the week. At the same time, there will
be small chances for cooling showers and thunderstorms as upper
level disturbances top the ridge and graze the region. Finally, a
northern stream trough is shown to knock down this ridge (at least
temporarily) but models have really slowed down the timing and it
may not reach us until sometime on Sunday now.  This trough should
still bring some relief from the heat and humidity but this may not
be until Monday. The main forecast concerns revolve around pops
through the period as well as how warm it will turn late in the week
into this weekend.

Wednesday...Surface high pressure shifts off to our east leading to
a more moist southerly flow. In addition...subtle height falls may
be enough to weaken the cap enough to allow for the formation of a
few mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Models are a bit
wishy washy as far as how much instability we can muster so will
leave pops in the chance category. It will be warmer and
increasingly humid with highs in the lower and middle 80s.

Wednesday night through Saturday...The large and increasingly
expansive upper level ridge remains nearly stationary for a few
days. This ridge will eventually be beaten down by a trough but this
may not happen until Sunday now (models have really slowed things
down). Northern Michigan will be on the northern edge of this ridge
so we will be in jeopardy of being clipped by any upstream mesoscale
convective systems that fire off to our northwest (proverbial ring
of fire). Very warm to hot condtions for Thursday through Saturday
now (maybe even into Sunday as well) with heat indexes expected to
top out in the lower and middle 90s (as long as clouds from any
convection don`t inhibit max heating).

Sunday...Extended models have really slowed things down as mentioned
above. The latest timing doesn`t bring the surface cold front across
the region until Sunday or Sunday night now. Therefore have raised
temps as well as increased pops.

Monday...Slightly cooler and less humid air advects down from
central Canada making for a pleasant start to the new work week.

Looking at long range data...the rest of the month still looks
pretty toasty with above normal temperatures expected right through
the first couple of days in August.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Strong high pressure will gradually slide east of Michigan over
the next 24 hours. Solid VFR conditions and dry weather will
remain the rule thru Wednesday morning. Light northerly wind
regime will lend to lake breeze development this afternoon.


Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Conditions will remain below SCA criteria today thru Wednesday night
as high pressure slides east of Michigan and southerly flow begins
to draw warmer air northward into our state. Our next chance for
showers and storms will arrive on Wednesday in advance of low
pressure developing over the Northern Plains.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Sullivan
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