Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 222006
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
406 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

...COLD WITH CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS...


THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE AMPLE CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH LARGE SCALE FORCING AND WE WILL
LOSE THE DIURNAL COMPONENT...INVERSION HEIGHTS STAY RIGHT AROUND
5KFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -13C...THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE TO TRIGGER SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND SOME SNOWFALL REPORTS TOMORROW MORNING OF 1 INCH
(MAYBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER) OVER NORTHWESTERN LOWER AND/OR EASTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOULD BE OVER
EASTERN UPPER WHERE THE SLIGHTLY BETTER LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS
EXIST. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT AFTER
SUNSET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: WHILE NOT HIGH IMPACT, SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW
OVERNIGHT, WILL COAT THE ROADS IF IT FALLS HARD ENOUGH, AND WILL
PRODUCE SLIPPERY SECTIONS.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: TIMING THE SNOW TO END AND THE SKIES TO CLEAR.

(04/23)THURSDAY...STARTING AROUND 12Z, THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH AS THE 850-700 MB RH BEGINS TO FALL OFF SO THAT BY 00Z,
THE RH IS LESS THAN 20%. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -10C AND
ARE WARMING THROUGH THE DAY, SO WE SHOULD BE LOSING INSTABILITY, AS
WELL AS MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THE CONCERN IS THAT THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR LES, BUT WITH THE SUN ANGLE, AND NOT A LOT OF
WIND SHEAR, WILL EXPECT LIKE TODAY THAT WE WOULD GET CELLULAR LAKE
EFFECT, SO AS THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WANE IN THE AFTERNOON,
WILL EXPECT THAT THE COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THIN OUT
AND CEASE BY THE EVENING.

(04/24)FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AND KEEP THE
AREA DRY AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL KEEP THE HEIGHTS
BUILDING MODELS KEEP THE WEATHER DRY FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER, THE
GFS IS MAKING A CASE TO INTRODUCE POPS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OF
THE NIGHT.

(04/25)SATURDAY...HOWEVER, EVEN THOUGH THE GFS THREATENS TO BRING
RAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA, IT FOLLOWS THE ECMWF IDEA OF PUSHING
THE RAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, LEAVING THE DAY DRY. WITH THE
SFC HIGH MOVING EAST INTO HUDSON BAY, WILL CONSIDER THAT WE SHOULD
HAVE A SET UP FOR DRY AIR PUSHING THE WEATHER SYSTEMS SOUTH. THIS
LEAVES THE 500 MB RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY, AND
SHOULD KEEP US DRY THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

LITTLE OF CONSEQUENCE ON THE HORIZON FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE REALLY
DIMINISHES AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE GLOBAL
MODEL CONSISTENCY AS TO WHETHER WE WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
DEVELOP AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER BACK
INTO THE REGION. WILL INCLUDE LOW END POPS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE
A FEELING THIS MAY BE DELAYED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS BASED ON THE LACK
OF CONVINCING SUPPORT.

TEMPERATURES LOOK MANAGEABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD (ESPECIALLY
COMPARED TO WHAT WE`RE SEEING NOW) WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
TO EVEN NEAR 60 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. KEEP IN MIND
NORMALS ARE RIDING IN THE UPPER 50S BY THIS POINT...SO WHILE WE`LL
STILL LIKELY BE A SHADE BELOW NORMAL...IT`LL BE ANOTHER WELCOME
ROUND OF SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...WHERE
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. CEILINGS
WILL RANGE FROM FL015 IN SNOW SHOWERS TO FL060 OUTSIDE OF THESE
SHOWERS. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE PREVALENT DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS COLDER AIR COULD BRING SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

CONTINUED LOW PRESSURE WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN
MICHIGAN WILL COMBINE WITH GROWING OVERLAKE INSTABILITY THROUGH
TONIGHT...TO PRODUCE LOW END/MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. AIDING THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
DRAWING DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ345>349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TJL
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...TJL
MARINE...TJL


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