Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 191231
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
831 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MADE A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO EXPAND MENTION OF DRIZZLE.
MOST COMMON ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MORE FREQUENT. TEMPERATURES
FALLING THROUGH MORNING...STEADYING OUT BY MIDDAY/AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW COUPLED WITH BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE REGION. STRONG CAA HAS BEGUN
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT TODAY...AS 850 MB TEMPS TUMBLE INTO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/CLOUDS HAVE STEADILY
SPREAD EASTWARD THRU OUR CWA...WITH ALL BUT OUR FAR SE COUNTIES NOW
REPORTING LOW CIGS. UPSTREAM OBS OVER WRN AND CENTRAL UPR MICHIGAN
HAVE SHOWN SOME LIGHT PRECIP (BOTH LIGHT RAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOW)
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR OUR NRN
CWA THUSFAR. PRIMARY LIMITATION TO PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS LACK OF
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE. STILL APPEARS ERN UPR MICHIGAN MAY HAVE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
TODAY. OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LWR
MICHIGAN MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS
MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MAINLY CLOUDY...BREEZY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
DAY. TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY STAY NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN FALL A FEW
DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE TODAY.

COLD AIRMASS FIRMLY IN PLACE COMBINED WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL DECOUPLING TONIGHT
AND THUS EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
FALLING TO AND BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SHORELINE AREAS
STAYING A FEW DEGREES WARMER. IN COORDINATION WITH BOTH GRR AND
DTX...WILL HOIST A FREEZING WARNING FOR ALL OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN IN
EFFECT FROM 04Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...SHORELINE AREAS WILL
LIKELY STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING...BUT INLAND AREAS OF THESE COUNTIES
SHOULD DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: FROST AND FREEZE PROBLEMS EACH NIGHT. ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY?

FORECAST CHALLENGE: WIND SPEEDS, WHICH COULD AFFECT THE FIRE DANGER
ON EACH DAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST/FREEZE EACH NIGHT.

(05/20)WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AS THE SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT. 850 MB MOISTURE REMAINS AROUND 50%
WITH THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH AROUND 20%. THE JET STREAK ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE OHIO VALLEY, KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO GET TO AROUND 60F. DEWPOINTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S, AS THIS AIR
MASS MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD PRODUCE SUB-25%
MINIMUM RH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SEEM TO BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, SO
UNLESS THERE ARE FUEL MOISTURE PROBLEMS, PROBABLY WON`T HAVE AN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. WINDS DECOUPLE PRETTY WELL, UNDER THE CLEAR
SKIES. CURRENTLY THE MODELS SUGGEST MID 30S FOR LOWS, WILL GO WITH
IT FOR NOW, BUT TEMPERATURES COULD BE A LITTLE BIT LOWER ESPECIALLY
WITH THE LOW DEWPOINTS DURING THE DAY.

(5/21)THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE IN TO THE MID TO UPPER
60S OVER THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-72, THE MAIN FIRE AREA OF
CONCERN, AND WITH THE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO DROP AGAIN INTO THE 20S
SO WILL AGAIN EXPECT THAT THE MINIMUM RHS WILL BE SUB-25% AGAIN.
WINDS ARE JUST A TOUCH HIGHER AROUND 10 MPH AT 20 FT. SO THERE IS A
CONCERN, BUT AGAIN IF UNLESS THE PARTNER AGENCIES EXPRESS CONCERN,
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WON`T BE A DAY FOR GREAT CONCERN, BUT IT CONTINUES
TO BEAR WATCHING. THIS THEN SETS US UP FOR A COLDER NIGHT AS THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO NEAR CALM OVER MOST OF N LOWER. SO WILL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S. SO THIS MAY NEED A
FREEZE WATCH ONCE WE GET PAST TONIGHT`S FREEZE WARNING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN PARKED
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO REMAIN INTO THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEKEND, BEFORE MOVING EAST. THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF THE 500 MB LOW THAT WILL BE IN NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE RESULTING SFC WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO KICK OFF
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH IT DOESN`T LOOK MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN THE OTHER NIGHT, SO WILL PUT SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER. IT THEN LOOKS LIKE THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE ITS
SWEET TIME TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SO MORE THAN LIKELY IT WILL BE
JUST RAIN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER, AS WE HAVE SEEN IN
THIS CURRENT PATTERN, THE MODELS HAVE HAD A TENDENCY TO BE WET,
COMPARED THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT HAS ACTUALLY APPEARED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES
TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
WRAP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG CAA IN THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS TODAY...DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

STRENGTHENING NW WINDS IN STRONG CAA WILL MAINTAIN SCA CRITERIA
WINDS AND WAVES FOR MOST OF OUR NEARSHORE AREAS THRU THIS EVENING. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FOR NEARSHORE AREAS
AROUND ERN UPR MICHIGAN...OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MAINLY CLOUDY AND
COOL DAY...WITH DIMINISHING CLOUDS AND WINDS TONIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     MIZ016>036-041-042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ346>348.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...MLR
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...MLR


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