Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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302
FXUS63 KAPX 242307
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
707 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

...Another warm weekend on tap...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern overview: Upper level ridging extends through the plains
and into the Great Lakes, with surface high pressure and dry air
stretching through the Great Lakes. Lots of sunshine across the
region, although with some pockets of heating of the day CU
bringing some brief partly cloudy conditions. Temperatures today
have warmed into the upper 70s to lower 80s, cooler near the lakes
where lake breeze boundaries are beginning to push inland (per
KAPX radar imagery).

Pattern forecast: Overall quiet weather through Saturday. Upper
level ridge axis will slide across the Great Lakes through
Saturday. Axis of very warm temperatures just off the front range
of the Rockies will gradually shift eastward into the region for
later Saturday into Sunday. Highs solidly in the 80s anticipated
with a few locations pushing 90.

Tonight: Batch of SCT CU across northern lower Michigan will fade
heading through the evening hours with clear skies anticipated
thereafter. Calm winds and some lower afternoon dewpoints will
allow temps to fall into the lower 50s for many areas, and into
the 40s for some of the colder spot (GOV...etc).

Saturday: Will be watching upstream convective development across
the northern plains tonight, along the apex of the upper ridge.
Not expecting anything precip-wise to make it into our area on
Saturday. However, there may be some thicker mid and high cloud
cover that spreads into the region as we go through the day. So
sunny skies to start the day with increasing clouds through the
afternoon. Bigger story will be temps that should be able to warm
well into the 80s for most locations (cooler just downwind of the
lakes of course). A couple spots may push the 90 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

High impact weather potential: Minimal. Scattered thunderstorm
chances late Saturday night through early Sunday afternoon.

Pattern synopsis/Expected evolution: Heights continue to rise ahead
an approaching area of low pressure, currently off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest and expected to trek into southern Canada through
the weekend. This will swing a cold front/occluded front through the
Great Lakes late Sunday with showers and thunderstorms expected
ahead (late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon) of the frontal
passage. Another subtle shortwave is expected to move through the
northern Great Lakes early next work week, perhaps providing a
widely scattered shower chance on Monday.

Main forecast challenges: PoPs and thunder chances Saturday night-
Sunday along with any associated thunder chances.

Details: Pre-frontal precip is expected to arrive late Saturday
night across eastern Upper and sections of northwest Lower before
continuing to spread eastward throughout the day. While guidance
continues to prog the greatest QG ascent well to our north and
depicts showers/thunderstorms over Wisconsin weakening as they cross
Lake Michigan late Saturday, several variables are still viable to
bring scattered showers and storms to parts of the area. Aside from
weak pre-frontal forcing as the front somewhat washes out moving
into Michigan, a 100+ kt 250 mb jet streak is draped across WI/Upper
MI/into southern Ontario leaving northern MI squarely in the right
entrance region with upper divergence aloft. As mentioned by the
prior shift, timing of precip has slowed somewhat from 24 hours ago
perhaps leading to southwesterly winds helping to pool moisture
ahead of the front and ultimately increase dewpoints, especially
across southeastern areas where PWATs surge to more than 2.00 inches
in some spots. Will continue thunder chances Saturday night through
Sunday as enough instability looks to warrant such. Would be remiss
not to at least mention SPC`s Day 3 Outlook that includes a SLGT
risk over the eastern-third of northern Lower bounded by a MRGL risk
generally along and east of US-131. The NAM is by far the most
robust on any severe weather chances, suggesting 2,200 J/kg of 0-3
km MUCAPE. Interesting to note the GFS and SREF aren`t too far off
from that during the early afternoon hours, suggesting upwards of
1500 J/kg. Would think that such high values are a result of
overdone dewpoints suggested to rise into the low 70s for a brief
period, but as seen this past Monday with moisture pooling ahead of
the front, such a reality can certainly briefly occur. On the other
end of the spectrum, the non-American models are much less robust -
suggesting 300-500 J/kg of MUCAPE. At this point, a happy medium of
the two is given preference. One thing that`s not in question is the
marginal deep layer shear with nearly all guidance kicking out 40-50
kts of wind at 500 mb and 25-35 kts of 0-6 km shear. While enough to
perhaps support an isolated severe threat, it`ll likely limit any
widespread strong-severe storms. Will continue mention the threat in
our suite of hazardous weather products, but will wait until
confidence increases over the next 24 hours to touch on the
potential elsewhere.

Another weak shortwave slides through upper level troughing on
Monday along with a secondary cold front (really bringing the push
of cooler air into the region during the day Monday). With a
relatively dry airmass overhead, any light showers will likely be
very limited in coverage. Above normal highs on Sunday ranging from
near 80 north to the middle 80s across interior northern Lower will
fall to below normal Monday with a wide spread expected from 60
degrees near Whitefish Point to 80 degrees by Saginaw Bay.

Gillen

At 500mb... a weak wave rounds the trough that is located in
northern Quebec going through the Great Lakes on Tuesday before
exiting our region... Temperatures as a result will be cooler than
normal as the 850mb temps fall to around 4c. Ridging begins to build
from the west back over the area returning us to a zonal flow for
the middle of the week generating seasonable highs for the period...
Friday a subtle wave pushes through northern Michigan.

At the surface... Monday night into Tuesday morning we see the
greatest chance of lingering light showers that will accompany the
piece of energy. Wednesday through Thursday night turns to a drier
period with a surface high pressure building in over northern
Michigan... Friday looks mostly dry however a weak low increases our
chances of light showers south... however moisture looks sparse as
the Dewpoints at the surface and 850mb remain relatively low (40s
for sfc, 0-5c at 850mb). As a result we will keep the pops in the
grids to reflect the chance.

Berger/BPH

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 707 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

VFR conditions will continue thru Saturday evening as strong high
pressure slowly shifts east of Michigan. Light/variable winds
tonight into Saturday morning will become southerly at around 10
kts by Saturday afternoon on the backside of the high center.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Light winds anticipated tonight and through much of Saturday. But
winds will be on the increase Saturday night and particularly
Sunday in advance of a cold front that will slip through the area
later Sunday. Winds/waves will likely approach or reach small
craft advisory criteria for portions of the lakes by Sunday.

&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...Gillen
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...Adam



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