Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 291057
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
657 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/expected evolution: Rather amplified pattern for
the summer season across NOAM, consisting of extended western
ridging and broad northeast troughing. Northern Michigan fully under
the influence of the latter...with deep dry northwest flow extending
right out of central Canada (local 00z pwat values all the way down
to 0.42 inches, with a complete lack of any appreciable moisture
through the troposphere). While troughing dominates up above, high
pressure rules at the surface, the center of which is right over the
western lakes. Above has resulted in one quiet and clear night
across the north woods, with temperatures several degrees on the
cooler side of normal, with current readings largely falling into
the 40s.

Really, not much change in the big picture heading through tonight,
with broad mid level troughing remaining in place, all-the-while
that western lakes surface high slowly rotates across the Ohio
Valley.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Not much for sure. Main issues
(if you want to call them that) are temperature and cloud trends
through tonight.

Details: Not a whole lot to talk about here, with high pressure and
a very dry atmospheric column dominating. Moisture to thin down low
to even allow much, if any, diurnally driven cu to develop. May see
a few passing shreds of cirrus at times, but otherwise sun-filled
skies will dominate. Weak pressure gradient should allow some pretty
decent lake breeze development this afternoon. Combination of all
that sunshine and a modified airmass will allow temperatures to make
a run to more normal levels, with afternoon readings mostly in the
mid and upper 70s (of course just a touch cooler near those big
waters).

Warm air advection processes begin to ramp up some tonight as high
pressure slowly pushes southeast and upstream cold front begins to
take shape ahead of southeast diving Canadian shortwave. With that
said, all appreciable moisture advection focuses well to our west,
with a rather dry atmosphere remaining overhead. Cloud cover does
begin to increase some across the north late, but even here think
skies will be only partly cloudy by morning. Light southwest winds
and the development of that waa will keep lows tonight several
degrees warmer than those being observed right now. Still think much
of northeast lower, however, will make a run into the mid and upper
40s before temperatures begin to recover toward morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

(6/30)Thursday...Models have been slowing the advance of the
expected rain almost every run, and usually by about 3 hours each
time. Now, it looks like that the rain won`t get into the region
until after 15z (GFS) or may be even 18z(ECMWF/NAM). Actually, the
NAM is even slower with rain not getting into the region until after
21z. The last would make sense looking at the GFS model soundings.
as the MLCAPEs are less than 100 J/kg. The SBCAPE/MUCAPEs are around
500 J/kg, but considering that the MLCAPEs are a better indicator
for convection, for our area, think that most of this will be rain
showers, initially, with thunder possible early in the afternoon.
Then better chances for thunder between 21z and 00z, and then the
chances of thunder falling between 00z and 03z. After 03z, think
that the likelihood of thunder gets smaller as we lose the sfc
heating, so that only rain showers will be expected through the rest
of the night.

(7/1)Friday...Rain moves out in the morning. There is a question of
timing by about 6 hours between the GFS/NAM (fastest) and the ECWMF
(slowest). The afternoon looks dry however, as the moisture
continues east. Temperatures fall back below normal for the day, but
will expect that there will be some weak warm advection as we go
into the evening. This warm advection will help to drive the rest of
the moisture out of the region so that clouds will clear out
overnight.

Extended (Saturday through Tuesday)...The weekend looks to be warm
and dry as high pressure begins to warm advect into the region so
that temperatures are around normal on Saturday and above normal on
Sunday and Monday. A front sets up north of the Soo on Monday, and
then slowly sags into the region according to the ECMWF, while the
GFS keeps the moisture out. The models are in better agreement for
rain on Tuesday with a cold front that moves through the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

...VFR conditions set to continue...

Mostly clear, light wind environment through this taf cycle. Local
lake breeze development expected this afternoon. No vis
restrictions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2016

High pressure will control our weather today, bringing with
it light winds and mostly sunny skies. Given weak pressure gradient,
organized lake breezes are expected this afternoon. Southwest winds
begin to ramp up some overnight, especially on northern Lake
Michigan, as the pressure gradient begins to tighten across the
region. Gonna get a touch breezy by Thursday morning, but still
think both winds and waves will remain below advisory criteria.
Approaching cold front will continue to increase the southwest winds
Thursday, which may result in some nearshore waters of Lake Michigan
approaching SCA conditions. The front will push through Thursday
night with showers and a few rumbles of thunder possible. Much
cooler air and gusty northwest winds are expected on Friday with
additional SCA`s possible.


&&

.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB



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