Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 220756
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
256 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 256 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

...Wintry mix of precip developing today and tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...Widespread mixed precip today and
tonight causing hazardous travel.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Developing low pressure has reached
eastern Kansas and western Missouri early this morning. Associated
warm front extends northeastward from the developing low and into
the far southern Great Lakes region...including far southern Lower
Michigan. So far...precip has been spotty and mainly plain rain
across our SW CWA. Line of diminishing precip is making its way into
an area where temps are around freezing...so a few areas in our SE
CWA may see some light freezing rain early this morning as expected.

Near term models all continue to gradually increase the areal
coverage of precip from south to north throughout today as deep
moisture surges northward ahead of the low. Warm front will lift to
our southern CWA border today into this evening as the surface low
follows this same path. Upper low center will track thru southern
Lower Michigan right behind the surface low. This track continues to
place our CWA within the area of mixed precip types as a relatively
impressive warm nose develops aloft via strengthening WAA ahead of
this system. Area of mixed precip potential (i.e. freezing
rain/sleet) will gradually lift northward thru our CWA thru today
and this evening following the warm nose...with southern sections of
our area switching over to plain rain as surface temps warm above
freezing. Will certainly maintain all advisory headlines as this
process plays out today and tonight. Heaviest snow amounts will of
course be across eastern Upper Michigan and the tip of the Mitt.
Expect some ice accumulation across the northern half of our CWA as
well...but this should generally remain under two-tenths of an inch.
One thing is for sure...travel across our CWA today into tonight
will be messy and at times hazardous.

High temps this afternoon will range from the upper 20s in eastern
Upper Michigan to around 40 degrees along our southern CWA border.
CAA will kick in tonight as the low begins to pull away from
Michigan. Precip across eastern Upper Michigan will switch over to
snow later tonight as overnight lows drop into the teens. All but
our far SE CWA will switch over to snow as well late tonight. Low
temps across northern Lower Michigan will range from around 20
degrees in the Straits to around the freezing mark near Saginaw Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 256 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

...Winter storm departs and temperatures fall...

High Impact Weather Potential...Travel will remain difficult across
northern Michigan through Tuesday morning due to additional light
snow accumulation.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Winter storm will be out over the
southern half of Lake Huron Tuesday morning, departing into southern
Quebec by evening. In its wake, wraparound moisture will lead to
continued precipitation across northern Michigan, quickly
transitioning to all snow as much colder air infiltrates the region.
A brief period of NNW flow lake effect snow showers is possible
during the afternoon around and south of the Grand Traverse Bay
area, diminishing quickly during the evening as much drier air
settles in. Strong surface high builds into the Upper Great Lakes
overnight and into Wednesday, resulting in dry but cold weather
midweek.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Diminishing precipitation and transition
to snow on the backside of the departing storm.

Precipitation will still be ongoing Tuesday morning across northern
Michigan, but diminishing in coverage over time as the system
gradually pulls away. The more intense precip and heavier QPF
Tuesday morning is expected across northern Lower. Looks like any
lingering wintry mix down towards Saginaw Bay will quickly
transition to all snow as colder air blasts back into the region on
gusty NNW winds. Little if any additional ice accum expected as a
result. There is a very small chance of some patchy freezing drizzle
across eastern Upper in the morning, as forecast soundings show
saturated low levels just barely extending up to around -10C.
Otherwise remaining synoptic snow will give way to some light lake
effect snow showers around and south of Grand Traverse Bay by
afternoon as 850mb temperatures drop. These will diminish quickly
during the evening as the low levels dry out. Snow accumulations
Tuesday morning will generally range from 1-2" across northern Lower
and up to 1" across eastern Upper.

Dry weather with a return to much colder temperatures is in store
for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Lows will be in the low single
digits across eastern Upper and range from single digits to teens
across northern Lower. Highs Wednesday range from teens to mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Cold surface high pressure will drift east of the region on
Thursday, with low level winds veering south in its wake. This will
lead to a period of warm air advection and warming temperatures,
especially on Friday. Dry conditions expected to continue through
Friday, but the increasing southerly flow will transport higher
moisture into the region by the weekend. A potent system will lift
from the Dakotas into Ontario by Friday night, with northern
Michigan residing within the warm sector. Rain and snow showers
overnight will give way to rain on Saturday, but a strong cold front
will usher in a colder airmass for Sunday with lake effect snow
chances returning early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1148 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

Deteriorating conditions as wintry precip moves in from south to
north.

Low pressure nearing Kansas City will cross lower MI Monday
night. Mixed wintry precip will spread south to north across
northern lower MI late tonight into Monday. MBL/TVC will start as
a rain/snow mix before quickly going to all rain. APN will be snow
over a much longer period, eventually turning to rain Monday
afternoon. PLN will be similar, except mixing with or turning to
freezing rain late Monday. Snow will be quite wet where it falls,
with snow-liquid ratios commonly between 8-1 and 10-1. MVFR to
IFR conditions will prevail. IFR to LIFR cigs/vsbys have already
expanded into parts of ne lower MI in particular, associated with
stratus and fog in advance of a warm front and developing precip.

Easterly winds will develop tonight, and become gusty on Monday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 5 AM EST
Tuesday for MIZ008-015.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for
MIZ016>019-021-022.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 PM EST this evening for MIZ023-
024.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until noon EST today for MIZ027>030-
033>035.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ036-
041-042.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JZ


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