Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 232254
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
654 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING WITH IT DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...ANOTHER COMFORTABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POSSIBILITIES: PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
PROMOTING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.
THEREFORE HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THOSE OF LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO NEAR 50 NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE. IN ADDITION...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM ONCE AGAIN
LATE INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...TERRIFIC STRETCH OF EARLY FALL WEATHER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGES:  LOW TEMPERATURES.

PATTERN SUMMARY:  VERY STABLE 4-WAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND RESULTANT UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS HAS PUSHED THE
WESTERLIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IT HAS ALSO ALLOWED WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WARMTH TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND
EVENTUALLY THE GREAT LAKES.  SOME HINTS THAT THE PATTERN MAY BEGIN
TO CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH STRONGER PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.

VERY FEW SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN
ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES EASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.  A MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE
WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN LAKES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY BUT WILL DAMPEN
OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES...RESULTING IN LITTLE MORE THAN SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY.  A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKES ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE AREA.  ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE QUITE DRY
AND AM INCLINED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN
70-75 DEGREES INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
INTO THE UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY WITH THERMAL RIDGE FOLDING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  WILL TAKE SEVERAL DEGREES OFF OF OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THANKS TO LONGER NIGHTS AND EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.

REST OF THE FORECAST:  CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT...WITH PACIFIC ENERGY MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS...HELPING TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM RIDGE EASTWARD.  GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE PATTERN ENDS
UP SLOWER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN SOME OF THE CURRENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS.  IN THE MEANTIME...ENJOY THE SPECTACULAR EARLY FALL
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL NRN LWR MICHIGAN TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
OVERHEAD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS BRIEF PERIODS OF GROUND FOG AND/OR
STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT PLN...APN...AND MBL...WHICH MAY
LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR AS WINDS BECOME CALM. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT UNDERNEATH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE A COMMON THEME ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS ALSO WILL BE AN
OVERALL LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL ALSO TREND
ONSHORE. NO MARINE ISSUES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...MG
MARINE...AS





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