Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 260230
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1030 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BREEZY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE INCHES CLOSER...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES BACK
ON THE COOLER SIDE. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO MICHIGAN FOR MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT TUESDAY...WITH THESE FEATURES PROVIDING A FEW ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
MAKE A RETURN INTO MIDWEEK...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT
RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING. OFF-AND-ON STRATOCU CONTINUES TO ROTATE
THRU EASTERN UPPER MI ON OCCASION...AT THE MOMENT SKIES ARE
LARGELY CLEAR. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH SEVERAL GUSTS AROUND 40MPH IN PARTS OF
EASTERN UPPER. SOME FINE-TUNING TO SKY COVER FORECASTS...BUT NO
MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGES:  TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS

TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE SLOWLY INTO THE WESTERN LAKES
WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO QUEBEC.  AFTER DIURNAL CU FIELDS DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS EVENING...SHORTWAVE WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO
PARTS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS 80%+ RH IN THE H8-H7 LAYER SCRAPES
PORTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER/NORTHEAST LOWER.  WILL GENERALLY GO PARTLY
CLOUDY IN THESE AREAS...ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY EASTERN UPPER.  BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN
MIXED WITH GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP NORTHWEST WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY.  WILL TREND THE FORECAST TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THIS...WITH MIN TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...MAYBE SOME SNOW AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MAYBE IF THE RIGHT INGREDIENTS COME
TOGETHER AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES: RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOW
RAIN MIX IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

OVERVIEW...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN HAS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES
AND WEAKER 500 MB LOW BOOK-ENDING THE CONUS. THIS LEADS TO SOME MINOR
RIDGING OVER THE N ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN
OVER THE WEEK WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGS PRECIPITATION.

(10/26)SUNDAY...THE SFC AND 500 MB RIDGE AXES MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE STILL TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. SO WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER. THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE THE MORNING WHERE THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME WEAK COLD
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE AROUND 850 MB THAT COULD PUSH SOME CLOUDS
INTO THE REGION. THEN BY 18Z, THE WARM ADVECTION LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG
WITH THE SUB 10% RH AT 850 MB MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE 700-500 MB MOISTURE AXIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 06Z, WITH THE 850 MB MOISTURE
MAX BACK IN WISCONSIN. SO WILL EXPECT THAT AFTER 06Z THAT RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS HAVE LITTLE CHANGE TO WHAT THE
GOING FORECAST HAS BEEN, SO WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT,
FEEDING INTO THE LIKELY POPS BY 12Z.

(10/27)MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...NOT SURE ABOUT THE DRY SLOT THAT THE
00Z ECMWF HAS HAS SO BUMPED THE POPS UP IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SO
THAT THEY`RE AT LEAST CHANCE TO MATCH WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES.
WITH THE WARM SECTOR AND THE SFC LOW MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BY 00Z, WILL LEAVE THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH N LOWER. THE
QUESTION IS WHEN DOES THE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THE GFS BEGINS TO PUSH IT INTO THE REGION BY 12Z. WITH THE DETAIL
BETWEEN THE MODELS SO CLOSE WILL LEAVE THE LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

(10/28)TUESDAY...COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS, THE SFC
LOW ISN`T AS WRAPPED UP AS IT WAS A FEW NIGHTS AGO. DESPITE THAT
BEING THE CASE, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LESS DEVELOPED ECMWF AS THE
GFS, I THINK IS STILL SHOWING SOME FEEDBACK, AND PUSHING THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH TOO FAST. ALTHOUGH, TOOK THE LIKELY POPS DOWN A NOTCH
IN NE LOWER. OVERNIGHT, THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION,
SO WILL PROBABLY HAVE LE RAIN SHOWERS.

EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...(10/29)WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -4C ON BOTH MODELS BY 00Z, WILL CONTINUE
THE CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NW FLOW REGIONS. (10/30)THURSDAY...NOT
SURE ABOUT THE WARM ADVECTION ON THE GFS. IF IT IS RIGHT THEN NO
SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL LEAVE THE MIX FOR NOW AS THE
GFS OVERNIGHT STARTS TO COLD ADVECT BRINGING A MIX OVERNIGHT, MAYBE
EVEN ALL SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION. (10/31)FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE IT
WOULD CONTINUE TO BE A MIX INLAND, WITH THE RAIN NEAR THE LAKES AS
WE WARM ONLY TO AROUND 40 IN THE FORECAST AREA. IF THE GFS IS  RIGHT
THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF IS VERY DRY SO WILL KEEP IT A LOW CHANCE.
(11/1)SATURDAY...THE GFS BEGINS TO WARM UP ENOUGH AND PUSH THE
MOISTURE OUT THAT IT HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE ECMWF SO WILL KEEP THE
REGION DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ESE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE HIGH REMAINS
RATHER DRY. APN AND PERHAPS PLN WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF STRATO-
CU...STARTING OUT IN THE 5-6K FT RANGE...LOWERING TO 3-4K FT BY
SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT THINGS TO REMAIN VFR. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CLOUD COVER OTHERWISE.

SOMEWHAT BLUSTERY W TO NW WINDS CONTINUE...THOUGH NOT SO MUCH AS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...HIGH END SMALL CRAFT GUSTS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A FEW LOW END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE AROUND WHITEFISH
POINT AND IN NORTHEAST LOWER FROM THE STRAITS TO PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT.
THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY RELAX ON SUNDAY AND WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN BY LATER IN THE DAY.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ONCE
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES ALONG WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ347.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ345-346-348-
     349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SYNOPSIS...MG
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JK






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