Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 052348
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
548 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING ELONGATED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ROTATING EAST THROUGH WESTERN MN/IA. FAIRLY QUIET RIGHT NOW
AHEAD OF THE WAVE PER LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AS FORCING BATTLES DRY
LOWER LEVELS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE MAINLY IN THE 20S.

FOR TONIGHT...LOOK FOR THE MID-LEVEL WAVE TO CONTINUE ROTATING EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING APPEARS PRETTY WEAK...AND WITH DRIER
LOWER LEVELS...WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES ON THE LOWER END WITH POSSIBLY
A DUSTING TO 1/2 INCH AT MOST. ALSO WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DRAW WARMER/MOIST AIR FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE COLD SNOW
PACK. PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S.

QUIET WITH SOME WARMING TAKES PLACE SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE ALBERTA ROCKIES AND ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDERS. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MN. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE
MIDDLE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SNOW CHANCES...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH UNDER THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN WI.
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
TAKES OVER ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT. COULD SEE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT OF THE WEST WHICH
COULD PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW.

SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRESH SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15-25 MPH...GUSTING 30-40 MPH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST
IA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...WITH
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERELY REDUCED VISIBILITY AND DRIFTING ACROSS
ROADWAYS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...LOOK FOR NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO TAKE OVER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS/20S AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MN AND
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING MAY BRIEFLY DROP CEILINGS/VISIBILITY INTO
THE MVFR RANGE AT KRST. APPEARS MOST SNOW SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING KLSE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06.06Z. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS UPSTREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS TAF AIRFIELDS LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG ADVECTING INTO SOUTHEAST MN NEAR THE SATURDAY
MORNING SUNRISE. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT POSSIBILITY WITH 3SM IN
MIST ALONG WITH 1000 FT CEILINGS BEGINNING AT 06.10Z. EXPECT A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF AIRFIELDS BY MID-SATURDAY
MORNING PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS



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