Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KARX 172000
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
300 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS REVEALS MID-LEVEL LOW PIN-WHEELING
THROUGH NORTHEAST WI WITH LOBE OF 850-300MB PV-ADVECTION CURRENTLY
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE I-90/94 CORRIDORS. RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE
ARX VERY WEAK WITH AN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWER POPPING UP FROM TIME
TO TIME. RADAR MOSAIC WAS SHOWING A BIT MORE SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHERN WI/U.P. MORE ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY UNDER THE MID-
LEVEL LOW. OTHERWISE...CLOUDY/BRISK CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.

FOR TONIGHT...MODELS BRING DOWN ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH FOR SHOWER CHANCES.
KEPT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED TO THIS EVENING AND NORTHEAST OF
I-94. PLAN ON CLOUDS HOLDING STRONG THROUGH ACROSS THE AREA AS
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S.
ALSO...LOOK FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...AND PRETTY MUCH
OVERHEAD BY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...IT WILL
BE RATHER COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
MIDDLE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

WAS THINKING ABOUT VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE DECK/~200FT IN THE 10-15KT RANGE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. WIND AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD HOLD OFF FOG THREAT. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S/AROUND 30 IN CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NORTHERN
WI/U.P. SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. APPEARS BEST FORCING FOR ANY
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF I-94. PLAN ON HIGHS
SUNDAY RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL WI...TO THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

MONDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS. PLAN ON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

IN THE LONGER TERM //TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY// MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY PERIOD WITH WARMING AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS. ECMWF HAS 582DM 500MB HEIGHT
OVER THE ARX FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 2-2.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COULD
TRANSLATE TO SOME RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW AFTER SURROUNDING OFFICE
COLLABORATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND POSSIBLY
BUMP TEMPERATURES UPWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF SIGNAL REMAINS
CONSISTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

EXPANSIVE MVFR CLOUD SHIELD HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND IN/UNDER DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. SOME
DEEPER SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF MN/WI TODAY BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO LOWER MI...BUT EVEN THIS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE BKN-OVC
MVFR DECK. WITH PLENTY OF MVFR CLOUDS ALL THE WAY UPSTREAM INTO
CENTRAL MAN AND NORTHWEST ONT AND ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE TO DROP
ACROSS THE MN/WI TONIGHT...CIGS MAINLY IN THE 1500-2500 FT RANGE TO
PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THRU TONIGHT AND AT LEAST SAT MORNING.
WINDS TO REMAIN BRISK FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SAT...WITH NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WINDS MORE IN THE 10KT RANGE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING THRU
SAT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.