Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KARX 270435
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SMOKE...HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...WAS
EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STREAMING IN FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TONIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LIGHT WIND LAYER FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH
6 FT ALONG WITH THE CLEAR SKIES...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE FOG COLD BE
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S. ELSEWHERE...PLAN ON LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD EDGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION  SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS...IN THE 700 TO 500 MB LAYER INCREASES AND DEEPENS
WITH TIME AS THE WAVE DRAWS CLOSER. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY INCREASING
THE SUPPORT FOR MODERATE RAINFALL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 TO 1.7 INCHES BASED
ON NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WE SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO
PERHAPS 3 INCHES  ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.
THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR.
THERE REMAINS SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS RAINFALL EVENT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME WITHIN BANK RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE LOW THEN
STARTS TO EXIT THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT A
SECONDARY WAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEFORE FINALLY ENDING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. IN FACT WE
WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
AT SOME LOCATIONS FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH RIDGE LOOKS
TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY AND VERY WARM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SCENARIO SCREAMS WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG FOR KLSE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER...AND T/TD SPREAD AT 03Z NOW ONLY 5
DEGREES. A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/4SM SEEMED LIKELY...AND WOULD HAVE
ALREADY UPDATED TAF TO REFLECT CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...A BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL MN...AND LOOK TO TAKE A
EAST/SOUTHEAST TRACK OVERNIGHT. THE RAP/HRRR/NAM ALL SUGGEST THIS
BKN 6-8 KFT DECK WOULD MOVE OVER KLSE BEFORE 12Z...AND COULD PUT THE
BREAKS ON THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL IT THIN BEFORE IT MAKES
IT? WILL IT GET IN TOO LATE TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION? ELECTING TO
KEEP FORECAST AS IS. EXPECT UPDATES BASED ON CLOUD TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

FOR KRST...NOT SOLD ON THE MVFR BR ANYMORE WITH A FEW CLOUDS MORE
LIKELY AT KRST.

FOR THE REST OF THU...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...WITH LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS-VSBYS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...RIECK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.