Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 260717
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
217 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS PRIMARILY TEMPERATURES WITH BLOCKED PATTERN OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL CONUS...BUT THERE IS A WEAK CLOSED
CIRCULATION CAUGHT WITHIN IT. MOISTURE EXTREMELY LIMITED SO THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE EFFECT THE PAST FEW DAYS OTHER THAN CLOUDS...AND
THAT TREND LOOKS TO PREVAIL AS IT MEANDERS AROUND THE GENERAL
AREA. THIS CIRCULATION LOOKS TO WOBBLE AND FILL THROUGH SUNDAY...
THEN FINALLY EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA.

AT 07Z...SATELLITE FOG ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHES OF CLOUD
FROM SOUTHEAST MN DOWN ACROSS IA. CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND REFORM HERE
AND THERE...SO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND LIKELY INTO TONIGHT AS WELL. BUT
OVERALL ANTICIPATE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS...ENOUGH TO
ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

WEATHER BEGINS TO BE A BIT MORE UNSETTLED AS WE MOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS THE OVERALL PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DROPS THROUGH CANADA TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE...WHILE THE
LARGE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE NORTHERN WAVE DROPS A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED...AND RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY OF MODELS HAS NOT BEEN THE BEST. BUT ANTICIPATE THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. THE WESTERN TROUGH FILLS AND
EJECTS EAST BY MID- WEEK. MODELS DIFFER IN HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS
AND HOW MUCH OF THE ENERGY ACTUALLY REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT
ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL THERE TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING WITH
SO MANY DIFFERENCES. COULD ACTUALLY BE A COUPLE OF ROUNDS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT...THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG HAS GONE UP
AT LSE. WINDS HAD GONE CALM BUT THEN CAME BACK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AT 7KTS AT 4Z. WITH THE CLOUD COVER HOLDING BACK
RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECT THAT THE FOG WILL TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER TO FORM SO HAVE TARGETED THE 10-14 TIMEFRAME FOR THIS
POTENTIAL FOG. INCLUDED SOME FOG AT RST AS WELL THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS NOT AS HIGH THAT IT WILL FORM THERE COMPARED TO LSE WHERE SKIES
HAVE ALREADY CLEARED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND 15Z FRIDAY
MORNING WITH WINDS STAYING UNDER 10KTS AND CIGS ABOVE 5KFT INTO
FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HALBACH


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