Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 080835
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
335 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
COUPLE MID-LEVEL TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH UPPER MI AND OVER CENTRAL
MN. RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WI IN RESPONSE TO THESE WAVES. OTHERWISE...MAIN BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT RUMBLED THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING NOW
PUSHED INTO SOUTHEAST WI/NORTHERN IL. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S.

FOR TODAY...WILL BE DEALING WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING/COLDER AIR
ALOFT ALONG WITH EMBEDDED WEAKER TROUGHS WITHIN THIS FLOW. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATING AROUND 300-500J/KG OF MLCAPE IN THE 0-1KM
LAYER. AS SUCH...WILL GO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TODAY...MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AS
HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE 70S. OTHERWISE...SHOULD FEEL A BIT MORE
COMFORTABLE WITH DEW POINTS MIXING DOWN INTO THE 50S AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION.
BETTER 700-300MB PV-ADVECTION/FORCING STAYS MAINLY ALONG AN NORTH OF
I-94...SO KEYED IN ON POPS THERE. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS
THE AREA. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWING CUMULUS DEPTH AROUND 6-8KFT
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...CAPPING OFF AROUND 650MB WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS. SHOULD REMAIN DRY WEST OF
THE RIVER WITH SHALLOWER SCATTERED-BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD. PLAN ON
HIGHS TOPPING OFF ONCE AGAIN IN THE 70S.

BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WORKS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND MORE FAVORED
AREAS OF CENTRAL WI WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SETS UP OVERHEAD.
LOOK FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SAND COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE.

WEATHER LOOKS TO BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS MODELS
SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION.
GOOD AMOUNT OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/850-700MB ISENTROPIC LIFT TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. PLAN ON LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE AND HIGHS FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 70S DUE
TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A COUPLE TROUGH
THROUGH THE REGION FOR SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES. TIMING IS DIFFICULT
WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN AT THIS TIME...SO MODEL CONSENSUS POPS REMAIN
FAIRLY LOW IN THE 20-40 PERCENT PROBABILITY RANGE FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO BE A BIT TRICKY WITH TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS
AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION THAT COULD BE PRESENT. FOR
NOW...GOING WITH LOWS IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER
80S. BY MONDAY AND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF AND GFS...BRING A
CLOSED LOW SOUTHWARD OUT OF ONTARIO CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR COOLER AND POTENTIALLY SHOWERY WEATHER. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THESE TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD EVEN MORE GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS COLD AIR ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2014

STORMS HAVE EXITED...LEAVING SKC/SCT SKIES. SEE SOME THREAT FOR FOG
IF WINDS WOULD DECOUPLE AT KLSE. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STAY
TIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT THOUGH...AND NOT MUCH INDICATION OF
DECOUPLING VIA THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SO WILL MONITOR...BUT DON/T
THINK VALLEY FOG IS FAVORABLE AT THE MOMENT.

FOR TUE...WI WILL BE UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
EXITS EAST. SHOULD SEE BKN CIGS DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
WI...WITH SOME AFTERNOON -SHRA POSSIBLE. COULD SEE SOME BKN VFR AT
KLSE...BUT BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE -SRHA THREAT WILL STAY EAST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WE ARE
EXPECTING ALL THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS WITHIN THE ARX FORECAST AREA
TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PERIODIC
RAIN WILL BE SEEN THROUG TIS WEEK...BUT IT APPEARS THIS RAINFALL
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
MISSISSIPPI...OR ITS TRIBUTARIES. FOR THE CURRENT AND FORECAST RIVER
LEVELS...SEE OUR INTERNET PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LACROSSE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RIECK
HYDROLOGY....DAS


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