Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 151140
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
640 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Main impactful weather concerns are on frost potential tonight.

Low pressure continues to track northeast across Lake Michigan and
Northern Michigan early this morning. Light rain and areas of
drizzle will continue for areas mainly along and north of Interstate
90 early this morning thanks to moisture wrapping around the back
side of the low. This activity will push east of the area by noon
this morning with gradual decreasing clouds expected mainly this
afternoon. We will have an increase in cloud cover this evening
in the 6-12 kft layer as a weak upper trough moves through. We are
not expecting any precipitation with this feature with drier air
near the surface and high pressure edging in from the west.
However, this will delay cooling a bit for the evening and
overnight hours which raises some questions for low temperatures
tonight. Thinking we will cool into the 30s and possibly upper 20s
in cold favored spots, but we won`t see these cooler temperatures
until later in the night thanks to the batch of clouds moving
through. Will be holding off on a frost advisory given the
potential for this cloud cover to impact lows.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Outstanding weather expected the rest of the week.  Dry conditions
expected all the way through Friday.

Weak ridging builds across much of the northern CONUS on Tuesday
then flow aloft turns more zonal. This will bring a weak frontal
boundary through the region on Wednesday. The boundary will only
create an increasing pressure gradient with breezy south winds
expected, especially Wednesday afternoon. Friday will be a rather
mild and breezy day across the region. In fact, high temperatures
could climb into the mid 70s at many locations given the latest
forecast model trends. Will have to keep a close eye on dew points
Wednesday and Friday with the potential for them to mix lower
during the afternoon hours. Forecast soundings are hinting at
this potential too. A cold front front slides east across the
Northern Plains Saturday and moves into the Upper Mississippi
River valley by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This
will be the next chance for rain across the area. Saturday could
be another warmer day with good mixing ahead of the front with
breezy south/southwest winds. We should once again see highs climb
into the lower and possibly middle 70s at many locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

The combination of cyclonic flow aloft and low level moisture will
continue to provide a broken deck of primarily MVFR clouds this
morning. These clouds will break up early this afternoon and then
a 8 to 12K deck of broken clouds (associated with short wave
trough) will move into the TAF sites during the mid to late
afternoon. These clouds will then exit the TAF sites between
16.04z and 16.08z.

The tight pressure gradient will keep sustained northwest winds
in the 15 to 25 knot range with gusts to 30 knots through 15.15z
and then the winds will quickly subside.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...Boyne



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