Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 262115
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
315 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.

A STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT SPREADING A MIX OF
LIGHT SNOW AND DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WITH A SWITCH OVER TO MAINLY ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. A BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WILL OCCUR NORTH OF WISCONSIN
HIGHWAY 10. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ARRIVING A LITTLE LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO HAVE PUSHED THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY
BACK...STARTING AT 03Z IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND AT 06Z IN WEST
CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STARTS TO SATURATE. WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW
FREEZING...PLAN ON PATCHY TO AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. A SWITCH
OVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THERE WILL BE A WINTRY MIX ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW BAND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT BEFORE A SWITCH OVER TO SNOW EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO STAY JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS THEN
GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASES AFTER 09Z...SO THIS IS WHEN AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL SEE PRECIPITATION BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING OVER
THESE AREAS AFTER THIS TIME. MESOSCALE MODELS LOOK CONVECTIVE
AFTER 06Z ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. WE COULD SEE SOME BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW BAND AND THIS COULD CREATE SOME
QUICK ACCUMULATIONS LEADING TO SLICK TRAVEL..WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF LATE SATURDAY MORNING
AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AND BY LATER AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TO THE 20S ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A TROUGH THEN
DIVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SPREADING SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE BIG STORY WILL BE TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT
NUDGE UPWARD ON WEDNESDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL EDGE INTO THE TEENS
ABOVE ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE A CONCERN MONDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THEY WILL DROP INTO THE -15 TO -20 RANGE
ACROSS THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW THEN LOOKS TO BE THE
RULE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

ACCUMULATING SNOW PERIOD STILL FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES. HAVE
MOVED THE ONSET TIME LATER AT BOTH SITES WITH THE MAIN
ACCUMULATION AND IFR PERIOD...POSSIBLY LIFR IN THE 10-15Z WINDOW.

EXPECT THAT KRST WILL SEE MORE IMPACT WHERE 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW
COULD FALL. KLSE SHOULD SEE AROUND 2 INCHES OF SNOW. EXPECT VFR TO
RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO BOTH TAF SITES.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE PRIOR TO SNOW ONSET THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY FZDZ. WILL TRY TO GET A HANDLE ON THAT THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     SATURDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ079-086-087.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT



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