Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 141148
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
548 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Main forecast concerns through tonight are on drizzle and rain. A
little freezing drizzle is possible over north-central Wisconsin
early this morning before temperatures warm above freezing.

Areas of drizzle and patchy fog will continue across the region
today as low level moisture continues to stream across the
region. A cold front approaches late this afternoon from the west
and will move through during the overnight hours into Wednesday
morning. Look for the light rain to become more widespread as the
front moves in and isentropic lift increases on the 290-300K
surfaces. Patchy fog will continue across the area today and may
become locally dense over portions of north central Wisconsin
tonight. Mesoscale models and SREF visibility probabilities are
showing a fairly strong signal for dense fog tonight north of the
Interstate 94 corridor. Will have to keep a very close eye on this
possibility.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Main forecast concerns in the long term are on the potential for
some snow showers over north-central Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night and a period of gusty winds during this same
timeframe across the entire area. Then focus turns to rain/snow
chances late Thursday night into Saturday. Colder temperatures are
expected Saturday night into Sunday.

The front pushes east of the area by early Wednesday afternoon then
a compact shortwave trough pushes through and this is when the
colder air arrives along with gusty northwest Winds. Lapse rates
really steepen late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening so
we may see some rain and and snow showers, especially over north-
central Wisconsin. We could see wind gusts of 35 mph in open
areas late Wednesday afternoon into the early evening hours.

The next chance for rain and perhaps a wintry mix arrives late
Thursday night into early Friday as a broad upper trough and surface
low approach from the west. Warmer air moves into the region ahead
of this system so after the initial wintry mix possibility, the
main precipitation type should switch over to all rain by late
Friday morning across the local area. There could be some light
ice accumulations Friday morning across north-central Wisconsin.
As the low moves to the east of the area, colder air moves into
the region so we could see a switch over to snow late Friday
night into Saturday morning. Much cooler air then moves into the
region during the day on Saturday with temperatures falling
through the day. The coldest air arrives Saturday night when lows
will fall into the teens to around 20. Persistent northwest winds
will drive wind chill values into the single digits above zero
Sunday morning. Forecast confidence really falls off going into
next week with the forecast models showing large differences in
the overall pattern across the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 548 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

IFR/LIFR ceilings/visibility will be the rule at KRST through the
period. Current MVFR ceilings at KLSE are also expected to drop
below 1000 ft agl later this morning, although visibility is
likely to remain either low VFR or high MVFR in mist. While the
entire day will not be a wash, expect periods of drizzle through
at least mid-afternoon. Thereafter there may be a brief break
before another area of rain moves into the region with an
approaching cold front. IFR conditions are expected to continue,
but expect a wind shift from south to southwest after frontal
passage. Sustained wind speeds today will generally be 12 kts or
less.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...Rogers



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