Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 121759
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1259 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

AN INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION CAME THROUGH THIS MORNING ALONG THE
NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET/WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT HAS NOW SHIFTED
FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS HAS
REINFORCED A WARM FRONT BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM ALONG
NORTH CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA TO GRANT COUNTY
WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
HAVE QUICKLY JUMPED INTO THE 70S/50S WHILE TEMPERATURES NORTH OF
THE FRONT IN THE RAIN COOLED AIR MASS ARE STUCK IN THE 40S.

THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE...BUT
THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS FROM
FIRING...BUT AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL
INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THE 12.16Z RAP SHOWING AROUND
2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPING WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 50KTS
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORM MODE. THE WIND SHEAR WILL
MAINLY BE UNIDIRECTIONAL IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SURFACE WINDS OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND MID LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE WEST...SO NOT MUCH
OF A TORNADO THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. LARGE HAIL LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH A TRANSITION TO STRAIGHTLINE WINDS THIS EVENING
THOUGH THAT TRANSITION MAY OCCUR FURTHER SOUTH IN EAST CENTRAL
IOWA/NW ILLINOIS. SO...BASED ON THIS FORECAST...EXPECT THAT THERE
WILL BE A SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF SHOWERS
OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH A SMALLER
AREA OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. THE 12.05Z
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA ABOUT THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A LITTLE UNDERDONE WITH THE ACTION
AROUND OVER NORTHWEST IOWA. THE GENERAL TREND OF THE HRRR AND THE
12.00Z HI-RES ARW IS TO MOVE THE ACTIVITY ALMOST STRAIGHT EAST AS
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING TOWARD
THESE MESO MODELS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH AT LEAST AT 30 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH.

ONCE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES BY...THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY AS THE REGION GETS IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FOR A
WHILE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THROUGH WILL THEN
START TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL BRING THE NEXT
ROUND OF FORCING PRODUCING SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300
MB LAYER. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WITH
THE NOSE OF THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EXPECTED TO BE OVER
EASTERN IOWA AND INTO THE WEAK FRONT THAT GETS PUSHED INTO THE
AREA BY THIS MORNING/S ACTIVITY. THE 12.00Z NAM SHOWS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE PRODUCING BETWEEN 2 AND 6 UBAR/S OF UP
GLIDE INTO AND OVER THIS FRONT. THE HI-RES ARW SHOWS A LINE OF
CONVECTION FIRING UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AND
THUS THE AMOUNT OF CAPE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CAPE TO SUPPORT STORMS AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE AS THERE WILL BE AMPLE SHEAR IN PLACE
WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KNOTS IN THE 0-6KM
LAYER. APPEARS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL HELICITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WAVE WILL COME ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS TO THE BE THE
STRONGEST OF ALL THE WAVES. IN ADDITION TO THE FORCING FROM THE
WAVE ITSELF...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SOME JET DYNAMICS WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF BEING IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET COMING IN
WITH THE WAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
JET AXIS MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WEAK TO MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER ACROSS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY. ANOTHER ROUND OF 2 TO 6 UBAR/S OF
ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THE 295K SURFACE INTO AND OVER
THE FRONT. THIS PERIOD OF STRONG FORCING IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RAINS FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL SHOW 75 TO 100 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA...BUT WILL START TO DIMINISH FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FORCING STARTS TO MOVE PAST WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE FAR WEST. THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH COLD AIR THAT COMES
IN AT THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR A CHANGE OVER TO
SOME LIGHT SNOW. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WITH AMOUNTS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF THE UP COMING WEEK. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW ENERGY MOVING
ON TO THE SOUTHWEST CANADIAN SHORE FROM THE PACIFIC TUESDAY. THE
12.00Z ECMWF THEN TAKES THIS WAVE EAST IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. THE
12.00Z GFS AND THE GEM SHOW THIS WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND FORMING
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE GFS CLOSING THIS LOW OFF WHILE THE GEM KEEPS IT AS AN
OPEN SYSTEM. ALL THE MODELS THEN SHOW THIS SYSTEM COMING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHICH IS
GOOD TIMING CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH. FOR
NOW...WILL STAY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRIDS WHICH PRIMARILY
HAVE 20 TO 30 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANCES AT NIGHT AND RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THOUGH MOST OF
THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SOME 2-3KFT CEILINGS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. SOME RAIN
COULD GET INTO LSE THIS EVENING...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED AT RST.
WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBACH
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...HALBACH



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