Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 192259
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
559 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE ON FROST ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM
SOUTHWEST AND THE IMPACTS ON LOW TEMPERATURES.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A TROUGH LIFTING NORTHWARD  OUT
OF THE CENTRAL/HIGH PLAINS SPREADING  HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THIS IS THE CLOUD
COVER WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. PLAN ON AREAS
OF FROST TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN  WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE A
FREEZE WARNING IS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL WITH SKIES RANGING FROM MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHEAST  IOWA. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING  FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA TO AROUND 60 OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO MODERATE SOME ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO AROUND +6 C...COMPARED TO THE -5 C TO -3 C 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER  CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR
THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOWS
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY
FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD IT TO THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. A WEAK TROUGH LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
EASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE NAM IS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. FORCING IS RATHER WEAK
AND FOCUSED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SO HAVE CHOSE TO LEAVE IT
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. AN
ACTIVE PATTERN THEN TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH  THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. IT/S DIFFICULT TO SAY AT THIS POINT WHETHER ANY OF THE
STORMS WOULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE WEATHER IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL KEEP A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPILL OVER
THE REGION FROM A SYSTEM COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL TEMPORARILY RETREAT WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. ANY RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY
WELL SOUTH OF BOTH TAF SITES WITH JUST A MID LEVEL VFR CEILING.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY...THE HIGH WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     034-042>044.

MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...04



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