Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 242330
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A PROGRESSIVE AND ENERGETIC FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEK WITH AN EVOLUTION TO MORE OF A ZONAL OR BROAD FLAT RIDGE
IN THE LARGE SCALE. PREDICTABILITY OVER THE PAST WEEKEND HAS BEEN
LOW...AS SEEN BY THE SHORT RANGE VARIABILITY IN HOW THIS CURRENT
SNOW EVENT TRANSPIRED. NOT PRETTY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS.

LATEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH
RANGE WITH WINDS CAUSING SOME MEASUREMENT DIFFICULTY. RADAR
INDICATING THAT MOST OF THE CENTRAL WI AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS SNOW SHIELD MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
RAP TRENDS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING 600-700MB WEAK-MODERATE
FRONTOGENESIS BAND WILL DEVELOP N-S OVER CENTRAL WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BUMP THE RATES A BIT ON WEST END OF THE
SHIELD. BUT...THAT RAP FRONTOGENESIS GUIDANCE IN THE MID-LEVELS
HAS NOT PROVIDED MUCH FOR SENSIBLE SNOW INCREASE OR BANDING FOR
THIS ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...FROM TRENDS AND WHAT HAS FALLEN...SNOW
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING. HAVE LOWER
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MORE AROUND 4.5 TO 5
INCHES...AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH MKX...HAVE DOWNGRADED THE
WARNING TO ADVISORY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO CAUSE ROADS TO BE
COVERED AND SNOW PLOW CAMS IN NORTHEAST IA SUGGEST THE ROADS ARENT
TOO CLEAN YET. SO...HAVE DECIDED TO LET THE ENTIRE ADVISORY
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH MN
AND RADAR INDICATES SOME SNOW SHOWERS THERE. THIS SHOULD NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH BUT A BRIEF SNOW SHOWER PERIOD AND MAYBE A BIT OF
VSBY REDUCTION /1-2SM/...BUT NOT A HAZARD GENERALLY. HOWEVER AN
AREA EXISTS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN MN AND THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD WITH THE SNOW SHIELD THAT IS PROMOTING SOME FZDZ.
THIS IS FROM SERN MN INTO SWRN WI. SHERIFFS HAVE HAD FZDZ IN GRANT
COUNTY...AND EARLIER IN NERN IA. MOST OF THIS FZDZ SHOULD OCCUR
IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE DEEP SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING IN WILL SHIFT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE VIA SEEDER-
FEEDER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE WEEK REALLY WITH A COLDER THAN
NORMAL PERIOD UNDER THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH....BUT AS THIS
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...THE AREA WILL SEE CYCLES OF WARM ADVECTION
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CYCLONE PASSAGE...AND COLD AIR PUSHES.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ON WEDNESDAY...A HEAVIER TRAVEL
DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE IS COMING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
CURRENTLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF A 155 KT 250 MB JET PER 12Z
RAOBS. A PRETTY VIGOROUS SYSTEM THAT DIGS SOUTHEAST IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL BE A 1-2 INCH SNOW MAKER BUT THE TRACK
IS THE QUESTION. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT THE SAME FORECAST AS PREVIOUS
WITH MOSTLY A SRN MN AND NERN IA SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
IS NOT HIGH YET WITH COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER GREAT LAKES AND TOTAL
ENERGY OVER THE CONUS RIGHT NOW. NEW GFS PARALLEL RUN INTENSIFIES
THE NWRLY FLOW ENERGY MORE AND BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE NORTH...BUT
IS AN OUTLIER. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD AIR COMES IN FOR
THANKSGIVING...BUT A QUITE WEATHER DAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY AND IF MY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY...FRIDAYS WARM ADVECTION SWATH OF SNOW OR
WINTER MIX IS LOWER. GOOD MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS ON THE
TRACK RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL BE CORRECT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW/LOW CLOUDS/WINDS
CONTINUE TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE BACK-EDGE
OF THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW WAS JUST EAST OF KLSE...BUT THERE WAS A
BAND OF -SHSN SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN. THIS COULD
BRING A BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO...WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

EXPECTING CIGS TO STAY MVFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. DISTINCT EDGE TO
THE CLOUD SHIELD EVIDENT ON FOG/STRATUS SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND
MODELS FAVORING SLIDING THIS EAST OF THE TAF SITES EARLY TUE
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND...AND THUS SCT SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUE.

WINDS WILL STAY STRONG THROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT LOOK FOR AN
DECREASING OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT
AVIATION.....RIECK



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