Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 292341
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
641 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Based on current observations and projected pressure gradient,
have increased the winds and wind gusts a bit across the area.
This is especially true of the far southern forecast area from
Charles City to Dubuque Iowa where wind gusts have been 30-40
mph. Thinking the gusts will come down as the boundary layer
stabilizes with additional rain hours, but it may take most of the
evening.

This will be a nasty overnight with a cold blustery rain. Official
scientific term for tonight: Yucky.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Latest GOES water vapor imagery showing closed low churning through
the OK/TX panhandle. Deformation forced showers extending up through
IA into southeast MN/southwest WI. More of a west to east
frontogenetic band of rain was materializing in stretching
deformation area along/north of the I-90 corridor. Otherwise...cloud
cover and precipitation were keeping temperatures down in the
lower/middle 40s.

Closed mid-level low/surface low will continue to lift through
Missouri/southern Illinois/Ohio River Valley tonight through Thursday
night. Our area will be on the northern periphery of precipitation
associated with the low. Fairly strong frontogenetic forcing moves
through the area this afternoon into this evening, weakening and
moving off to the east after midnight.  As such, will see the
rainfall filling in/picking up in intensity this afternoon into this
evening, then decreasing in intensity during the early morning
hours. Models have generally backed off on qpf north of I-90, with
the heaviest looking to be more confined from northeast IA into
southwest/south central WI. Model soundings also show the
possibility of a wintry mix/light snow for portions of central/north
central WI. However, qpf is pretty light so any snow accumulation is
expected to be less than 1/2 inch. Look for overnight lows across
the area in the 32 to 38 degree range.

Light rain/drizzle chances linger through Thursday and possibly into
Thursday night east of the Mississippi River as the area remains in
weakening stretched deformation axis associated with the closed low
moving off through the Ohio River Valley. With thick cloud
over/precipitation, little bump in temperatures are expected with
highs Thursday only topping off in the upper 30s/lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Ridge of high pressure will provide some drying/warming Friday into
Saturday. Will likely have to put up with some stubborn
stratocumulus Friday but models do show clearing from north to south
through the day as surface high pressure builds in from Canada.
Saturday will see mostly sunny skies in the morning with high clouds
spreading in for the afternoon. Otherwise, look for highs Friday in
the 45-50 degree range and lower to middle 50s.

Precipitation chances return Saturday night and then linger on/off
through through Wednesday as a couple more closed lows move through
the Central/Southern Plains/Ohio River Valley. Otherwise, looks like
a mostly cloudy period with high temperatures in the 50s and lows in
the mid 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

A wet forecast in the TAFs with a gradual lowering CIG and VSBY as
the rain continues. Have kept the main flavor from the previous
TAF except that rain looks to linger into Thursday longer.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Baumgardt
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...Baumgardt



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