Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 281120

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
620 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Water vapor satellite imagery/RAP 500mb analysis shows a closed low
centered near Green Bay WI. Spoke of pv-advection that produced
scattered showers across the area through the evening hours
currently slipping southeast along the WI/IL border with ample low
cloud in its wake across our area. Temperatures as of 2 am were in
the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

The closed low will sink south toward Indiana today with deep/cool
cyclonic flow continuing across our region. Model soundings showing
steepening lapse rates with daytime heating. This is expected to pop
a few showers/sprinkles. Otherwise...another cooler than normal day
on tap with highs topping off in the lower 60s.

Closed low continues to sink southward into the Ohio River Valley
Thursday into Thursday night which will allow default ridging across
our region for clearing skies. Plan on highs Thursday in the 65-70
degree range with lows Thursday night 45-50.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Latest GFS/ECMWF in good agreement on lifting the closed low back
north into the lower MI through the weekend, bringing with it
cyclonic flow and threat for showers/sprinkles back into our
region...especially on Saturday.

Looks like a brief nice break Monday as a ridge of high pressure
drifts across the area. Plan on highs in the middle 60s to the lower

Eastern fringe of 850mb moisture transport/isentropic lift ahead of
Northern Plains low pressure will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms into the area. Otherwise, looks a tad warmer with
highs in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Periods of MVFR to IFR conditions are expected this morning at the
TAF sites in low stratus and light rain. Ceilings will rise from mid
morning into the afternoon with the increase in daytime mixing.
Plan on conditions improving to MVFR to VFR by mid afternoon and
eventually all cloud bases improve to VFR by this evening. Cloud
bases will mainly be in the 800 to 1500 ft range through late
morning then will gradually increase to around 3500 ft by mid to
late afternoon. Clouds will then become broken to scattered by
this evening.




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