Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 081952
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
152 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 152 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Mixed bag of clouds this afternoon with skies partly/mostly cloudy
north of I-94 and mostly sunny south. Meanwhile, GOES East water
vapor/ir imagery showing a fairly vigorous mid-level trough dropping
south through western Ontario. Light snow from this feature was
reaching across portions of far northern MN as of 1 pm. Temperature-
wise, readings pretty close to seasonal norms in the 20s to the
middle 30s.

Will be watching that mid-level trough drop quickly southward across
the area tonight with bulk of snowfall for our area falling in the 6
pm to midnight time frame. Still thinking 1-2 inches of accumulation
generally northeast of I-94, tapering off to the southwest. This mod-
level trough/pv-advection will be spinning up a fairly deep surface
low overnight into saturday morning which will increase pressure
gradient/ northwest winds across our area. This will likely cause
some localized blowing around of the freshly fallen light snow. Not
anticipating any whiteout conditions but probably some reduced
visibilities at times.

Conditions improve through the day Saturday as high pressure builds
in. Plan on clouds to scatter out by late morning, but pretty chilly
with highs only in the teens to middle 20s.

Another very weak mid-level trough/secondary cold front drops
southeast across the area Saturday night. This looks to come through
dry with just some increase cloud cover. Otherwise, look for
overnight lows in the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 152 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Northwest flow regime continues through next week. Will be watching
a wave of low pressure dropping southeast into region Sunday night
into Monday for the likelihood of some light snow, especially for
areas along/northeast of I-94. Will also have to watch for some
freezing drizzle with potential loss of cloud ice.

Tuesday looks dry but very chilly with expected highs only in the
teens/lower 20s and lows Tuesday night in the single digits/lower
teens above zero.

Perturbed northwest flow Wednesday through Friday will produce
intermittent light snow chances. Otherwise, plan on near normal
temperatures with highs in the 20/30s and lows in the teens/lower
20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1146 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Once MVFR stratocumulus dissipates at KLSE, expect VFR conditions at
both TAF sites for the rest of the afternoon with light westerly
winds. For later this evening, a clipper system will drop south
across the region, bringing a quick shot of snow. Expect visibility
restrictions in the 1-3 SM range. Ceilings will also drop into the
MVFR range, but some IFR conditions are also possible, especially at
KRST. Snow is likely to only last for 2-3 hours, followed by
flurries and a wind shift to the northwest, gusting at times into
the lower 20 kt range. Still some timing uncertainty, but cloud
bases should rise back above 3000 ft agl later tonight with a
continuation of breezy northwest wind through the rest of the
period.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS


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