Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 271125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
625 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

For this afternoon and evening, a vigorous short wave trough,
currently located over southern Manitoba, will move southeast
across northern and eastern Wisconsin. While there are steep 900
to 700 mb lapse rates (8-8.5 C/km), soundings show a warm layer
between 700 and 500 mb. This may cap off any convection from even
developing. As a result, just kept a mention a slight chance of
showers in north-central and central Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

From Friday into Tuesday, high pressure will be in control of the
area. With relatively dry air, abundant sunshine, and soils
drying out, expect the temperatures in the river valleys to climb
a few degrees higher than MOS. Meanwhile at night, the relatively
dry dew points (especially on Saturday and Sunday mornings) will
cause temperatures in central and north-central Wisconsin to fall
a few degrees cooler than guidance.

On Tuesday night and Wednesday, both the GFS and GEM have a cold
front moving through the region. Meanwhile the ECMWF does not have
this system moving through until Thursday. In all 3 models this is
a later trend, so there remains much uncertainty on the timing of
this system. Due to this kept the rain chances low. Regardless of
the timing, both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement that the
CAPES are not impressive and the 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear remain


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

High pressure will build into the region today (and right on into
the weekend) with a prolonged stretch of mainly VFR conditions.
There should be some development of diurnal cumulus this afternoon
and into the early evening hours, as an upper trough drops through
eastern Wisconsin. A few showers are expected with that system,
but likely to the east of LSE, with winds from the north to
northeast around 10 knots through the afternoon, decreasing
tonight. There will be some risk for nighttime fog development the
next few nights with mainly clear skies and light winds, though
winds just above the surface tonight appear a bit too strong for
development at LSE.


.HYDROLOGY...through Wednesday night
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

A Flood Warning continues along the Kickapoo River at Steuben.
River levels at this site are expected to fall below flood stage




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