Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 021803
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
103 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

WAA SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING OR SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM IMT
TO STE. AN ISOLATED STORM WAS LOCATED OVER SHAWANO COUNTY AROUND 3
AM. LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION DEPARTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER MINNESOTA EXTENDING SOUTH TO A LOW
PRESSURE REGION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONGER CONVECTION NOTED
NEAR THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MO AND
CENTRAL IL. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WAS LOCATED IN THIS REGION OF
HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS IN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER
MINNESOTA AND IOWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FOG THIS AM...BUT
APPEARS ENOUGH WIND AND MIXING WITH SHOWERS TO HOLD OFF FOG
DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CHALLENGE TURNS TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION TODAY AS THIS
LOW PRESSURE REGION LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH WITH THE LOW WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS WELL.

PROGS SUGGEST A DRY SLOT TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND PASS OVER EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE WRAP MOISTURE DROPS IN LATER
FRIDAY. WILL AGAIN TREND DOWN POPS FOR FRIDAY...BUT WILL NOT
REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY DUE TO COOLER AIR ALOFT SETTLING INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. WEAK DISTURBANCES OR COLD AIR ALOFT/DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON
EVOLUTION OF COLDER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION...WITH THE COLDEST
AIR WRAPPING SOUTH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEVERAL MODELS SHOW WARM
POCKET (RELATIVELY SPEAKING) AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTHERN WISCONSIN
AT 06Z THEN COLLAPSES BY 12Z SATURDAY. IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...
THE PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH SNOW LATER IN THE NIGHT...PROBABLY CLOSER
TO 12Z AS COLDER AIR AT 850MB MOVES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND WOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND HEATING OF THE DAY
COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER MORE RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY.
THE RAIN WOULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION.
CONTINUED THE SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
THERE IS SOME INDICATION TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
BY WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

CIGS WERE MVFR ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AT MIDDAY. THE
EXCEPTIONS WERE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE BAY...AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 8. VSBYS WERE VFR IN MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT MAINLY MVFR ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA IN
HZ OR BR. THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO MANITOWOC COUNTY AT
MIDDAY...BUT THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS IN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING NORTHEAST. ONCE THE SHOWERS ARRIVE VSBYS MAY START OUT
MVFR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD BECOME IFR IN RAIN DURING THE EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CHANCES WERE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD THEM
TO THE TAFS. AS THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE
EAST CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......MG





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