Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 071117
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
617 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO
THE CHICAGO VICINITY.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES ALONG
THIS DEPARTING COLD FRONT. CLOUDS WERE DECREASING OVER MOST
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE FRONT HOWEVER WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WERE
GENERATING MORE CLOUDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WILL LIKELY
NEED TO LINGER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH THIS MORNING. VSBYS WERE ALSO
LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT DUE TO FOG AND A
NARROW REGION OF SMOKE OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. VSBYS WERE
IMPROVING OVER NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN SO THE SMOKE
REGION APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSING EASTWARD. LATER TODAY...LINGERING
MOISTURE AND COOLER HEIGHT 850 TEMPS MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF CU
DEVELOPMENT TODAY BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY DROP INTO THE MID OR UPPER 30S FAR NORTH SO WILL ADD SOME
PATCHY FROST LATE TONIGHT AS WELL AS FOG IN THE LOWER RIVER VALLEY
REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT FLATTENED
TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY.  THEREAFTER...THE FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AS SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWARD.  THIS WILL SETUP AN ACTIVE PATTERN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
SMALL-SCALE IMPULSES...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS IS SUFFERING FROM
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ON FRIDAY.  SO WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM
FOR LATER PERIODS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
TRAVELING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A COLD FRONT STALLS
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE STATE OF WISCONSIN
WILL RESIDE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
PASSING OVERHEAD. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT.  THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PEEL OUT ON THURSDAY...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGHS WARMING
TO THE MIDDLE 70S.  A WARM FRONT WILL THEN BE RETURNING NORTHWARD ON
THU NITE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.  BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH FOR LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON THE WEATHER OVER NORTHERN
WI.  LOWS WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S.

REST OF THE FORECAST...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS
THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT INTO SOUTHERN WI.  THAT SHOULD YIELD ONE
MORE DRY DAY BEFORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND E-C WI
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY.  WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...COMBINED WITH
THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SAT THRU
MON.  HI TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 80S...THOUGH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS
NEAR 90 IF THAT WARM FRONT REACHES FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS. HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......TDH


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