Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 282353
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
653 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

High pressure will remain across the central Great Lakes tonight
as light winds, mostly clear skies and low level moisture once
again lead to fog across the forecast area. The fog should be
similar to last night with a few locations experiencing dense fog,
but not low enough and long enough for headlines. The other issue
later tonight is the formation of an MCS across northern Minnesota
impacting the northern cwa late tonight and into Monday morning.
Although it appears much of this system will stay off to the west,
westerly flow aloft could allow some of this dying system to track
into the area. Therefore have maintained the chancy pops in our
cwa per the previous forecast. Although the storms may start out
strong tonight across Minnesota, they are generally expected to
weaken as they approach Wisconsin and especially if they track
across north-central Wisconsin.

Later on Monday additional development is forecast along and ahead
of a cold front pushing in across the upper Mississippi valley.
This activity will have decent MUCAPEs of 2 to 2.5 J/g with
return flow on the backside of the high across northern Wisconsin.
Therefore will maintain chancy pops through Monday afternoon as
additional thunderstorm development is possible given the
instability in place across this area. The storms in the afternoon
would certainly have a better chance at being severe given the
instability in place, however wind shear is not all that
impressive as the 0-6 km bulk shear is only 20 knots. Therefore
the marginal risk for Monday seems reasonable at this juncture.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

An upper level high pressure ridge will sharpen over the Rocky
Mountain front range by midweek...which will deliver cool
Canadian air and dry conditions into Northeast WI for the latter
half of the work week. The high pressure ridge is expected to
slide east next weekend and bring warmer and wetter conditions
back into the region.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Great flying weather tonight except for the possibility of ground
fog a few hours before sunrise. If it does occur there could be
IFR conditions between 09z and 13z. Whatever fog materializes will
dissipate quickly after sunrise with VFR conditions Monday. There
is a small chance of showers and thunderstorms in northcentral
Wisconsin late in the afternoon.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......ML
AVIATION.......RDM



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