Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 212320
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
620 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE I 90 CORRIDOR AT MID
AFTERNOON. HAS HEATED OUT WELL IN ADVANCE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
AND IN LAST HOUR OR TWO...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE I
29 CORRIDOR TO COMPLIMENT THE RESIDUAL DEFORMATION BAND SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. THESE SHOWERS...AND EVEN AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER...WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL SUPPORT EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...WILL BE QUIET. SURFACE RIDGE
WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH HEADING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
THROUGH THE AREA...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HANG UP NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER WITH PERHAPS SOME
LOWER CLOUDS ATTEMPTING TO BACK INTO PARTS OF SW MN AND NW IA LATER
IN THE NIGHT.  A BIT TOO MUCH LINGERING GRADIENT REMAINS EAST OF I-
29 TO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT AT LOWEST POTENTIAL...BUT
WEST OF I-29 AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MID JAMES VALLEY...LIKELY
COOLING TOWARD THE MID 30S COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FROST.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ON
FRIDAY...BUT IN GENERAL WILL BE THE ONLY THING TO DIMINISH AN
OTHERWISE PLEASANT DAY. HIGHS WILL BE MILD...FROM LOWER 60S IN SW MN
AND NW IA...TO AROUND 70 IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY WARM BUT WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT CUT OFF LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
STRONG WARMING ALOFT...COPIOUS SUNSHINE AND MIXY SOUTHERLY SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH WITHIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
OR BELOW 80. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL BY
AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW SPINS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND
WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE REGION INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM....WITH ONLY A FEW
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES. A WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS NORTHEAST SD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION EAST OF I29 AND INTO THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WILL BE
AN ISSUE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW BARRELS INTO THE REGION MID
WEEK...AND WILL BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE AGAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH EMERGES IN THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
EVENING AND SLOWLY WOBBLES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A BIT COOLER AS
WELL...WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

MVFR TO UPPER END IFR CEILINGS ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MN AT THIS TIME...AND A LITTLE BIT OF THAT IS AFFECTING
THE KFSD TAF SITE VERY EARLY IN THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. BUT KFSD WILL
THEN BE VFR BY BETWEEN 00Z AND 01Z...WITH THE LOWERED CEILINGS
REMAINING EAST OF I 29 AND NOT IMPACTING ANY OF THE SIOUX FALLS
TAF SITES FROM 01Z ONWARD. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN EAST CENTRAL SD AFFECTING
KHON. THIS IS WHERE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS
CREATING VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AT THIS TIME...IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN WHAT CATEGORY THE FOG WILL END UP
IN...THEREFORE ONLY CONTINUED THE TREND OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
KHON.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MJ



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