Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 102135
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
335 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

A weak wave and some minor mid level frontal forcing will scrape
highway 14 late this afternoon and early this evening. If
precipitation can fall from this it should be in the form of snow
but chances are low enough no plan to increase pops right now. The
strong southerly flow will remain in place most of the night
allowing for nearly steady temperatures. The gradient will slacken
in central SD late tonight so maybe temperatures will drop off a
couple of degrees there.

Saturday will see temperatures recover, but cloud cover in far
southeast SD into northwest IA will likely hold back the potential
in those areas. Highs should be in the 40s, but maybe some upper 30s
from SPW to SLB if stratus cannot shift east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 334 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

A progressive open wave will move through the Central Plains on
Saturday night and bring a chance for precipitation to areas south of
Interstate 90. Some differences in how this wave is being handled,
especially in the lower levels. While the nam has a strong dry layer
below 800mb and little to no warm air advection along and ahead of
the wave, the GFS and ECMWF do indicate a little weak warm air
advection which supports a better chance for precipitation.
Soundings support mainly rain as the lift passes by so will plan on
that for now. Will keep pops in the mid range for now with marginal
confidence.

Once this wave passes a mild pattern develops with little to no
chance for precipitation Sunday through Friday. Sunday through
Thursday will for the most part see highs in the 50s with lows in
the 30s, although if the wind can remain strong Monday night the
Tuesday morning lows could be in the lower 40s. Another good chance
for mild lows on Thursday morning as well but confidence a little
lower. The models are hinting at some energy moving onto the Plains
Thursday into Friday but agreement in timing pretty poor so nothing
to grab on to just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Fri Nov 10 2017

Windy south and southeast winds gusting in the upper 20 to low 30
kt range will likely be the biggest impact to aviators across the
region today. These winds look to decrease somewhat after
11/0100z, and become much lighter after 11/0600z. Cloud decks look
to remain VFR through the next 24 hours, eventually eroding or at
least thinning after 11/0600z. Models do show the cloud layer
producing drizzle, but due to the dry air in the first several
thousand feet AGL, this is not likely to reach the surface.
However, planes flying through the cloud deck could see freezing
drizzle through this evening, given temperatures below freezing in
the cloud layer. Saturday will be much less windy across the
area.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...VandenBoogart



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