Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 200444
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1044 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.

MAIN ISSUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE SKY COVER AND RESULTANT
TEMPERATURES.

STRATUS COVERED A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY WITH SCT
FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY OVER SW MINNESOTA/SE SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NW IOWA.  THIS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING AS HEATING
IS LOST AND THE LITTLE WAVE ASSOCIATED MOVES EAST.  SOME BREAKUP OF
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT CLEAR SKIES ARE NOT WHICH WILL KEEP
MOST AREAS FROM GOING SUB ZERO TONIGHT.  SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.

LIGHT WIND AND INCREASING SUNNY SKIES FOR THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS PASSES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA.  THIS ALONG WITH LINGERING
TEMPS OF -10 TO -12C AT H85 WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 20S FOR HIGHS ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

WARM AIR ADVECTION BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LOW STRATUS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP BELOW THE INVERSION LEVEL AND LEAD TO A RATHER CLOUDY DAY ON
FRIDAY. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVERAGE...A BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT OF WARMING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING IN OUR NORTHEASTERN HALF...BUT AREAS WEST OF A HURON
TO SIOUX FALLS TO LEMARS LINE SHOULD REACH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND STRATUS
HOWEVER...IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THIS
RATHER SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE
WITH MUCH WARM AND DRIER TEMPERATURES AT THE MID LEVELS. IF DRIZZLE
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A CONCERN...AS ANY
LOCATIONS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING WILL RESULT IN SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. GIVEN THE RECENT PROLONGED COLD SPELL...COLD GROUND
SURFACES COULD BE ANOTHER CONSIDERATION FOR DRIZZLE FREEZING. ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT...BUT WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE CONCERNS - ESPECIALLY DURING MORNING AND EVENING
COMMUTE TIMES ON FRIDAY...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. DID NOT
PUT ANY -FZDZ IN THE GRIDS YET AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES AND GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE
LOW LEVELS AT THIS POINT.

STRATUS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY BUT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL BE EVEN WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WHILE
ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE SYSTEMS PHASE AND DEEPEN TO THE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES CUT OFF
AND WOBBLES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY - LIKELY SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO PLUMMET BACK BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. COULD SEE A BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA AND IOWA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
WHILE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO AT BEST...THE
STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AND VERY LOW VISIBILITY ISSUES
WITH ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL. WHILE ALL OF THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF IT...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY. STILL...
SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

A SCATTERED MVFR/VFR STRATUS DECK PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS EVENING. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES SLIDES EAST. A MORE BROKEN
STRATUS DECK MAY BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST LATE ON THURSDAY AS WINDS
TURN SOUTHERLY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LVLS.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALLY
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX



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