000
FXUS63 KFSD 270916
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
316 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE REGION AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES CURRENTLY ARE CLEAR AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE BRUTALLY COLD
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO...HOWEVER THE WIDESPREAD
LIGHT WINDS PREVENT ANY HEADLINES FROM BEING ISSUED FOR WIND CHILLS.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH
OR SO. THE RETURN FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY...BUT FRESH SNOW COVER AND POOR
MIXING RESULT IN HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL. READINGS WILL
REACH THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH THE WARMEST HIGHS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL SD AND MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOWCOVER EXISTS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD HELP PREVENT LOWS
FROM PLUMMETING BACK BELOW ZERO. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LOWS IN FROM
NEAR ZERO TO AROUND 10 ABOVE ZERO. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
WARMER THAN ADVISORY CRITERIA...THEREFORE NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD OF SATURDAY WITH MODELS
SLOWING DOWN TIMING...AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS SHUNTING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IT WILL BE WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
LOWER/MID 20S EAST TO LOWER 30S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE REGION...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
THROUGH LOWER NORTHWEST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THAT AREA LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AVERAGING AROUND HALF AN INCH...TO
MAYBE AN INCH AROUND STORM LAKE.

ANY SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA ON MONDAY...AND MAY KICK OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER IN THE DAY
IN OUR SOUTHEAST. IN A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IT WILL BE A
RELATIVELY MILDER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
EJECTS OUT OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. STILL SEEING MODEL DIFFERENCES
WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE OVERALL THEME IS FOR THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR SNOW TO EXIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND FOR TUESDAY...BECOMING MOST
APPARENT BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE TEENS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE COOL DOWN LOOKS TO
BE BRIEF HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 20S AND
30S FOR THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS. REUTRN FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...