899
FXUS63 KFSD 281715
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1215 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Main story tonight has been the convection ahead of short wave and
associated trof. Had quiet a few hail reports as the storms passed
through the KFSD metro area, but fairly brief severe weather
period. Many areas picked up some needed rainfall. Convection will
continue to move east and we may see a few lingering showers in
the morning, but main story will be the trof passing through the
area and swinging the winds around to the west northwest. The
winds will be rather gusty today behind the short wave so 25 to 30
knot gusts will not be out of the question. Temperatures will be
comprable to those of yesterday, but will feel a little cooler
with the northwesterly surface flow. Don`t epxect to see much in
the way of cu development with pretty substantial subsidence in
place per the models and soundings.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Active weather pattern will bring a series of systems to the region,
while temperatures will be below average through the start of next
week.

Trough digs into the northern Rockies and northern High Plains on
Thursday. Frontal boundary and greater instability will likely be
focused south of the region, closer to I-80, but may sneak as far
north as far northeast NE and into northwest Iowa in the afternoon.
Ongoing scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely lift through
the area Thursday morning, with the potential for additional
thunderstorms lifting into the area later in the afternoon and
evening as the shortwave approaches. Severe weather will be
possible, but mainly confined closer to the Missouri River and
northwest Iowa. With convection possible earlier in the day and some
lingering cloud cover concerns, along with the question of where the
front will set up, will make severe potential very conditional.

Yet another shortwave lobe dives across the northern Plains on
Friday and Friday evening. This system will yield cooler
temperatures with northwest flow and another round of scattered
showers or thunderstorms. Best chances look to be along and north of
I-90. Highs will be in the 70s.

Saturday looks largely dry with temperatures improving only a degree
or two from Friday. Models begin diverging more early next week,
however it does look like a minor wave arrives Sunday, followed by a
stronger trough around the Sunday night or Monday time frame. We
finally see a more significant warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday
with a flat upper level ridge building into the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Isolated MVFR ceilings lingering in far southeast corner of the
forecast area, east of KSUX, to start the period, but this should
improve by 20Z, leaving VFR conditions to dominate across the area
through this TAF period. Occasional wind gusts to 20-25kt through
the afternoon should diminish quickly by sunset.

Chance of thunderstorms will return to the area on Thursday. At
this time, any morning storms are expected to remain southwest of
the TAF locations, primarily in south central South Dakota. Threat
of storms will then expand eastward through the afternoon, after
this TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heitkamp
LONG TERM...Hanko
AVIATION...JH