Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 240348
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1048 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

The forecast will be tricky through this evening, with the potential
for active weather through early to mid evening. An interesting
convergence zone has set up roughly from near Vermillion to Windom
as southeast winds to the east converge with southwest winds to the
west. While stratus remains parked across areas east of the James
River, it has thinned and breaks in the stratus have allowed
temperatures to heat out into the 70s to the east of the convergence
zone. Plenty of low/mid level moisture persists with dewpoints well
into the 60s. Meanwhile a subtle mid level wave near the Kansas and
Nebraska border is lifting northeast towards northwest Iowa into the
early evening.

RAP forecast soundings suggest that the region east of the
convergence zone is very weakly capped or uncapped and instability
has increased as high as 1500 j/kg MUCAPE in northwest Iowa. The
concern however, is that shear values are marginal at best in this
region, and decrease to the east. With the greatest shear in the 3
to 6 km layer, expect that hail to ping pong size would be the
primary severe threat if any storm can manage to get going, although
an isolated gust to 60 mph will also be possible. Again, the severe
threat looks to be quite conditional and dependent on how unstable
and how much shear we can manage in the next several hours.

Additionally, model and storm motion trends also suggest that heavy
rain with cells may lead to a small localized flash flooding concern
if cells train over an area. Precipitable water values are high, but
not extreme.

Showers and storms diminish from west to east this evening, with
generally dry conditions expected overnight into Tuesday. Highs
Tuesday will be quite pleasant in the lower to mid 80s with a great
deal of sunshine and relatively light winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 406 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Shortwave approaching in southwest flow aloft will work on
increasing chances for thunderstorms heading through Tuesday night
and into early Wednesday. Low level jet fairly modest at 30 to 40
knots focused into eastern Nebraska, and but deep effective shear
remains fairly modest 25 to 35 knots across the far southern CWA.
With elevated instability 700-1200 J/kg, not out of the question to
see a hail producing storm wander toward the lower Missouri
corridor.  A lot of precipitable water in place, so would also
potentially be dealing with some areas of heavier rainfall.
Remains some question as to how active area closer to synoptic warm
front to the south during the evening, which could impact where
convergence of low level jet will tend to focus later on in the
evening and further overnight.  For right now, highest threat for
heavier rainfall and severe would remain mainly south.

Northward lifting of the wave on Wednesday will trim precipitation
chances through the morning from southwest to northeast. Eventually,
not synoptically in the best of locations to support organized lift
by Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, there will be a
lingering diffuse convergence zone somewhere near southeast South
Dakota into southwest Minnesota by late day, and areas near this
given soundings with but a weak cap in wake of morning convection
could support a few scattered storms, with shear between southerly
near surface flow and southwest flow aloft enough to warrant concern
of severe potential.

Should be a quieter period starting later Wednesday evening into
Thursday, as low level synoptic boundary settles southward into
southern Nebraska and central Iowa. There is a hint of another
subtle southwest flow wave which approaches late day. While appears
in most solutions as if boundary will be just a bit too far
southeast to help focus instability, will defer at least a bit to
the GFS which really activates late day convection for the lower
Missouri valley into northwest Iowa and carry some minimal pops.
Other solutions are slower with wave, which pushes the better
precipitation chances into the overnight period and into Friday,
which seems much more likely at this point. ECMWF is about 12-18
hours slower with main wave lifting through Friday into Saturday
than GFS and not quite as much faster than Canadian.  One thing for
sure about the forecast, there should be periodic precipitation
threat through much of the weekend, but perhaps will need to
introduce more of a break by Sunday.

By early next week, a trend toward ridging aloft and weakening of
the mid level flow in place, meaning while precip chances remain,
the day-to-day organized severe threat should diminish. Temps again
should remain generally at or above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Generally expecting VFR conditions for the TAF period. However,
with recent rains and winds turning light, potential for fog
arrives for FSD/SUX tonight into Tuesday morning. Lower confidence
on stratus backing northwestward into the terminals tonight.

tuesday, should remain VFR after stratus diminishes. We`ll watch
for convection to arrive late in the day, but will hold off on any
mention in the TAF until confidence is higher on location.


 &&

.FSD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Chapman
AVIATION...Dux



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