Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFSD 191101
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
601 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VERY PLEASANT FALL WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE REGION TODAY. SOUTH
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER BREEZY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF. THE LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILE RADAR DATA IS SHOWING MUCH STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT AROUND 25 TO 40 KT AROUND 2000
FEET AGL. EXPECT SOME OF THIS TO REACH THE SURFACE IN OUR HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE THE CROSS BARRIER WINDS
WILL LIKELY GUST TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROPPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID
MORNING AND EXIT MID EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND TURN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH SEASONALLY WARM LOW AND
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND GOOD MIXING WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
THE BULK OF THE DAY...HIGHS WILL WARM NICELY TODAY. CONTINUED THE
TREND OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGHS. NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STEAMING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED THE LATER HALF OF THE DAY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT AND NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 5
MPH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL QUITE A BIT DESPITE THE AIRMASS NOT
BEING PARTICULARLY COLD. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE CONSENSUS GIVEN THAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO WARM ON
RECENT CLEAR AND CALM NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

AIR SHOULD BE DRY AND SKIES CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
60S EAST TO THE LOW TO MID 70S WEST. THE GRADIENT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY SHARPEN A BIT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY
WITH WARMING DURING THE PERIOD BUT A STRENGTHENING INVERSION IN
THE EAST. IN ANY EVENT IT WILL BE WARM FOR THE TIME OF FALL.

SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP TUESDAY. THE QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH...BUT IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS.

SHOWER THREAT FROM WAVE COMING ACROSS ROCKIES RIDGE...AND
TEMPORARILY DAMPENING IT...LOOKS TO BE CENTERED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT WILL SPLIT INTO 6 HOUR PERIODS AND CUT BACK
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE TOO MUCH RAIN
DESPITE SOME INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH FAIRLY LOUSY
THERMAL SUPPORT. INSTABILITY IS MEDIOCRE AND SEEMS TO PASS ACROSS
AHEAD OF THE MOISTURE FETCH SO WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT.

AFTER THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH...THO ROCKIES RIDGE REFORMS AND BUILDS
EAST...SO WE GO BACK TO DRY AND MILD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RADAR DETECTED
WIND VELOCITY INDICATES THAT NEAR SURFACE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO
AROUND 40 OR 45 KT AT AROUND 1200 TO 2000 FT AGL FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...MAINLY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. WILL CONTINUE WITH
MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A BOUNDARY SAGS
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BUT WILL BE LESS THAN
10 KT AFTER 23Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE DANGER MODERATE AT
WORST TODAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER SOUTHERLY INCREASING WINDS
TUESDAY WITH THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER MAY LEAD TO A VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER WEST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND AM MAKING APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS. THIS WILL SHOW UP IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.