Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 232318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
618 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

High pressure will settle in to the Western High Plains with the
gradient slackening just a bit over the area. This will allow
temperatures to fall into the 40s overnight as clouds will be on the
decrease this evening.

Saturday will be similar to today, well mixed and breezy as well as
cool. Likely a couple degrees warmer but still some upper 60s to
lower 70s in most locations as clouds will be less than today. A
weak wave will move through MN on Saturday so will have a small
chance for showers across parts of southwest MN and northwest IA.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Sunday will see a decrease in winds as high pressure settles in.
With decent mixing will still see some northwest winds around 10
to 20 mph with the stronger winds across southwest MN.
Temperatures will again not change much but with a little more
sunshine it should be a pleasant day.

The almost September like pattern will continue through late next
week. This is in response to a series of waves near the Canadian
border, which will keep the upper level jet farther south through
the Northern and Central Plains. While temperatures will not be as
cool as today through Sunday, they will still be near or below
normal most days next week. The latest models are all fairly
agreeable swinging a wave onto the Plains Tuesday into Tuesday night
so will have the best chance for rain and thunderstorms during that
time. While it is far from a perfect set up for severe weather,
strong winds and good turning in the 0-3km layer are expected but
mid and upper level winds for now are not progged to be very strong.
After this wave passes the models become less agreeable as the GFS
really digs in a strong wave Thursday into Friday while the ECMWF
and Canadian are a little closer to zonal flow. Will not change much
during this time frame with a lack of consistency.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Breezy
northwest winds will decrease around sunset, however breezy
conditions will resume by 16z Saturday morning.




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