Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 170904

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
404 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Synoptically, surface boundary currently extends from south central
MN, southwestward to east central Neb. Aloft, mid level low pressure
is closed off near the KS/CO border, with another large closed upper
low over Idaho. The various models are in pretty good agreement in
moving the upper low northeastward toward west central IA by 00Z
Thursday, then filling the low tonight as it moves toward western
Lake Superior. One of the more remarkable things today is how much
stronger the northerly winds look over a large portion of our
forecast area. The surface boundary pretty much hangs up close to
where it is now, extending across northwest IA. To the north and
northwest of this boundary, gradient really tightens up with a lot
of 25 to 35 knots in the mixed layer. Therefore our SD zones, as
well as many of our southwest MN zones, will have north to northeast
winds increasing to 20 to 30 mph. Then as the surface boundary moves
further southeast tonight, our forecast area could see a lot of 20
to 35 mph from I 29 and points eastward, with decreasing winds in
our western zones. Because of the rainfall and northerly winds, many
locations will not see temperatures move a whole lot today. However
our zones in northwest IA and immediate adjacent locations should
see warming in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

In terms of rainfall, 850-700mb frontogenesis is rather
disorganized, however some does exist this morning from southwest MN
to to near Tyndall SD, pinwheeling this afternoon to along the I 29
corridor. This mimics the movement of a broad trowal maximized in
the 305-320K layer coinciding with deep moisture. All of this is
just on the backside of the movement of the mid and upper low, with
500-300mb QG forcing moving across our eastern zones. Although high
pops are warranted throughout nearly all of our forecast area at one
time or another, there is consensus in showing the most rainfall
coincident in the frontogenetic and trowaling areas, with an average
of one to one and a half inches possible in the late morning and
afternoon generally in southwest MN and Brookings, southward to
southeast SD. Heading into northwest IA, rain amounts may average
closer to an inch or so, with the lightest amounts confined to our
western zones of around a half inch. In terms of severe weather
chances, agree with the current SPC outlook in that there is a
slight risk in our far southeast corner, from about Ida county to
Spencer IA in the mid to late afternoon. We have the aforementioned
surface boundary swinging through during this time frame, with 850-
500mb lapse rates just over 7C/km. MU Cape in the elevated layers is
averaging around 1100 J/kg in this area, but one limiting factor due
to the rainfall today is effective shear. The SRH in the effective
inflow layer is just 50, with surface to 3km SRH a modest 85. Cape
in the effective shear layer is about 800 J/kg. NAM soundings show
DCAPE`s this afternoon in that region just over 600, so the primary
threat would likely be elevated hailers. Basically our far southeast
zones are what appears to be just on the back edge of the primary
severe threat.

Tonight as the low pulls northeastward, stabilization takes over in
northwest IA this evening ending the severe threat rather early. The
rainfall will also subside, and not really expecting any pockets of
heavy rainfall tonight anywhere in our area. With the brisk
northerly wind mentioned above, lows tonight will be chilly, with
mid 40s to lower 50s common.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

A brief upper level ridge will begin to build over the area on
Thursday, bringing quieter and drier conditions. Surface northerly
flow will be advecting cooler air and unseasonable temperatures into
the area. Highs will generally be from the mid 50s east of I-29 to
lower 60s west.

Unsettled weather conditions return this weekend as an upper trough
over the Pacific northwest slides northeast from the Four Corners to
the High Plains. A shortwave will be moving into the area ahead of
the lead upper low Thursday night into Friday, increasing rain
chances across the area. GFS/ECMWF suggest a saturated atmosphere
while NAM shows a drier atmosphere between the 950/850mb
layer early Friday morning. Leaned to GFS/ECMWF for this time
frame. Models also show a weak instability ahead of the 850mb
boundary; therefore a little potential for thunder is possible.
Another concern for Friday is the well below temperatures expected
thanks to the northeasterly cold air and precipitation. Highs
will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s, readings in the lower
40s could be possible.

Rain and thunderstorm chances continue on Saturday as the main upper
low slides into the area. Precipitation chances will depend on the
location of the surface low; but a lot of inconsistencies still
remain with this system. By 12Z Saturday, the ECMWF tracks the low
close to the CWA, somewhere between Nebraska and Iowa border,
while the NAM/GFS track the low farther south. Despite the
uncertainty in depicting the track and time, most areas will see
rain through Saturday afternoon.

Looking ahead through the remainder of the extended, drier
conditions and milder temperatures will be in place, at least
through Sunday. Periodic showers and thunderstorms return on Monday
into Wednesday as several shortwaves move in across the Northern
Plain. There is plenty of uncertainty at this point; therefore did
not make major changes during this time frame.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Thunderstorms will continue to expand to the north through
the overnight with lowering ceilings. Any activity may not reach
KHON until close to 12z. There may be a brief break lull in the
showers and thunderstorms early Wednesday morning, then rain and
isolated thunderstorms will become more widespread for the
remainder of the day.




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