Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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000
FXUS63 KFSD 012031
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
331 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION IS WEAKLY CAPPED. GREATER INSTABILITY
IS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.  MODELS ARE A LITTLE FURTHER WEST WITH
THIS FEATURE THAN THEN WERE 12 HOURS AGO...AND HAVE SHIFTED THE
FOCUS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF I-29. COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
THROUGH THE NIGHT...OTHERWISE...EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

ONCE AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. AS THE WAVE DROPS SOUTH...SO DOES
THE CHANCE OF PRECIP AND HAVE A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS
THROUGH THE DAY. ATMOSPHERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS REMAINS
WEAKLY CAPPED...BUT SUFFERS FROM A LACK OF A TRIGGER FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

IN THE INTERMEDIATE TERM...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THIS PATTERN WHICH EXHIBITS WEAK MID LEVEL
WAVES AND NO REAL FOCUS OF LOW LEVEL WINDS. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW MOISTURE PRIMARILY TRAPPED IN THE 850-700MB LAYER. THE WAVE
WHICH IS MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY BEGINS TO EXIT OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES THURSDAY EVENING. THEREFORE SMALL SKITTISH POPS ARE WARRANTED
FOR SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. FURTHER OUT...KEPT SMALL
POPS MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR WESTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHERE HEATING IS SOMEWHAT MAXIMIZED. TEMPERATURES ARE
RATHER SEASONAL LATE THIS WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S...AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

IN THE EXTENDED...OUR WELL ADVERTISED STRONG SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT IS STILL ON TARGET TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH END CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD FROM THE
SUPER BLEND WITH LINGERING CHANCE POPS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 29 MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...THERE IS REALLY NOTHING
TO KEY ON IN THE EXTENDED. 850MB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST A WARM DAY FOR
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S. BUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
KNOCK THOSE TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOUT 75 TO 80 DEGREES MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 COULD PRODUCE
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KFSD AND KSUX BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO CONTAIN IN THE TAF. AFTER
21Z...EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP WEST OF
THE JAMES. THESE STORMS SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN VFR...BUT COULD
DEVELOP SOME LOWER CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER...COULD SEE A STRATUS DECK
DEVELOP AROUND 15Z...THOUGH SATURATION APPEARS TO BE QUITE THIN.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...



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