Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 051126

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
526 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

A mild but breezy day is expected today ahead of a vigorous upper
low moving through the northern Plains this evening and tonight.
Strengthening pressure gradient at the surface will initially bring
gusty south southwest winds this morning, however a boundary
arriving in south central South Dakota around midday will quickly
advance east across the entire forecast area this afternoon through
mid evening. Winds shift to the northwest and remain quite windy
into the overnight hours. Frontal passage looks largely dry, however
models suggest that mid level frontogenesis does become a little
better organized across the Spencer/Storm Lake area in Iowa mid to
late afternoon. This may allow a few light rain showers or sprinkles
to develop briefly, before moving east early evening.

Mixy conditions today will allow temperatures to warm into the 40s
to near 50 despite the mostly cloudy skies. Did raise highs a few
degrees near and east of the I-29. Earlier arrival of the cold air
advection associated with the brisk northwest flow will likely cap
temperatures cooler in south central SD. Temperatures will steadily
drop overnight as the cold air advection begins arriving.  By
daybreak Tuesday, temperatures will be in the upper teens to mid

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Cool and breezy conditions will dominate the forecast in the Tuesday
through Thursday time frame behind a cold front moving through the
area. Have raised winds through the period by loading CONSMOS.
Potential for a little light snow or flurries through the period
with deep dendritic layer near the surface.  The first is on Tuesday
in the north as the upper trough moves from the eastern Dakotas into
the western Great Lakes. The second period for light snow appears to
be on Thursday morning as piece of energy rotates down through
Minnesota in deep northwest flow.

With the lack of snow cover, have stuck close to guidance values,
but have dropped lows a few degrees.

Pacific NW wave moving through the region Friday night into Saturday
appears to be much less organized than it was in the previous runs,
so have only continued slight chance to chance pops.  Towards the
second half of the weekend, more seasonal air appears to work back
into the region, resulting in temperatures warming towards seasonal


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 521 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Winds will be on the increase this morning, initially from the
south southwest, but a boundary will move through the area midday
through the early evening, shifting wind direction to the west
northwest. Winds will remain strong from mid morning through the
end of the TAF period, gusting to 30 kt at times. Strongest winds
will be in south central SD. Could see some MVFR ceilings arrive
with the wind shift, with the greatest potential for lower
ceilings to the north of I90.




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