Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 271753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1153 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Relatively pleasant conditions expected today for the end of
February with southerly flow drawing warm air into the region.  With
just a few high clouds across the region through the first half of
the day, should see temperatures warming 5-10 degrees above normal.

Southerly flow will draw increasing low level moisture into the
region and by late in the day the clouds should be on the increase.
This along with the continued warm air advection should help in
keeping temperatures from falling much through the evening hours.
With the saturation near the surface, have a mention of fog, mainly
concentrated along and east of I-29.  Of greatest concern however,
is the potential for drizzle/light precip as stronger shortwave
approaches from the west after 06Z.  With the wave focused to the
north, have some low chance pops along the highway 14 corridor, but
models are only hinting at the potential for saturation in the
dendritic layer. Given the deep low level saturation, have mention
of drizzle. Biggest concern is along the highway 14 corridor, where
temperatures are expected to fall below freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Tuesday has the potential to be rather messy with precipitation,
especially along and north of highway 14.  But it all hinges on
weather atmosphere becomes saturated or not.  If it does, snowfall
would be the main precip type.  If it doesn`t saturate, then drizzle
becomes more likely and then temps become important. At this time
based upon on bufkit soundings & model temp profiles, I will play
the odd of the atmosphere not becoming saturated and freezing
drizzle becomes a possibility into the late morning hours until
surface temps warm above freezing. By afternoon, wave is to the
east and precip chances decrease.

After Tuesday`s precip event, not much going on except a warm up
once again.  Raised forecast highs a little on Saturday and Sunday
as guidance warms considerably.  Tempered raising of the highs both
days to fit in better with the neighbors.  Will have to continue to
watch potential as snowcover will be minimal by that time around the
area. Highs on Sunday will be affected however by the timing of the
cold frontal passage.  EC pushes it through a little quicker than
GFS, which could knock a few degrees off the forecast. Light
precipitation possible late Sunday night into Monday on the
backside of the low.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

VFR conditions expected through 00Z Tuesday. Thereafter, low level
moisture will increase resulting in developing IFR or lower
conditions. Areas of fog will likely develop, especially along and
east of I-29. Could also be a little bit of drizzle/freezing
drizzle north of I-90, but confidence remains too low to place in
the TAFs for now.




LONG TERM...Heitkamp
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