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000
FXUS63 KFSD 301716
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1116 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

TEMPERATURES WARMING EVEN FASTER THAN FORECAST AND CURRENTLY 5 TO
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN RAP AND NAM. WHILE STRONG INVERSION WILL
EVENTUALLY SLOW THE RISE...EXPECT THAT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I90 WILL MIX TO AROUND 900 MB. THIS FAVORS TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
50 ALONG I-90 AND INTO THE LOWER 50S IN THE MISSOURI VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES...
WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH STRONGER...10 MPH OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.
DID NOT WARM QUITE AS MUCH ALONG HWY 14 IN EAST CENTRAL SD AND SW
MN DUE TO MORE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

A MILD AND MUCH LESS WINDY DAY TODAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES INTO
THE AREA. WHILE THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL THERMAL FIELD WILL BE A
LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BETTER MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT WARMER
READINGS. WITH QUITE A FEW 50S TO THE WEST YESTERDAY AND THAT AIR
MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE THOUGHT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL BE A
LITTLE LESS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. DO EXPECT
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO REACH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR BY ABOUT MID
DAY BUT THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR AND POINTS SOUTH SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON. FULL MIXING TO 900MB OR SO IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA SUPPORT ABOUT 52 TO 53 SO FOR NOW WILL GO ABOUT 50 IN
THIS AREA WHICH LEAVES A BIT OF WIGGLE ROOM IN CASE MIXING IS NOT
QUITE AS GOOD AS EXPECTED BUT WITH NO SNOW COVER SUSPECT THAT IT
WILL BE. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE MAINLY MID TO UPPER 40S WITH
SOME LOWER 40S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR WHERE CLOUDS MOVE IN
QUICKER.

SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN
LIGHT WINDS...NO SNOW COVER AND SOME CLOUD COVER. WILL GO WITH
MAINLY UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH LARGE
TROUGH BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE WEST COAST AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY. MODELS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE FORECAST AREA.  THERE IS EVEN SOME WEAK LIFT THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK
INITIAL WAVE PASSES BY...BUT THE LOWEST 4-5K FEET REMAIN UNSATURATED
MAKING IT TOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.

THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SOUNDINGS WET BULB DOWN TO SNOW FAIRLY
QUICK AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.

MONDAY APPEARS TO BE DRY AND SOMEWHAT MILD AS WARM FRONT PIVOTS
THROUGH THE REGION RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF WARMING.  925 HPA
TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE FREEZING...AND HAVE
RAISED FORECAST HIGHS WITH GREATEST FOCUS FOR WARMING WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD AID IN THE
WARMING...WHILE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AS SURFACE
LOW WORKS IN NORTH DAKOTA.

MODEL AGREEMENT REALLY STARTS TO DISINTEGRATE THEREAFTER WITH GFS
OFFERING A MORE PROGRESSIVE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW THAN THE ECMWF.
WITH MODELS INDICATING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE AND JET ENERGY
HANGING BACK ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY
TUESDAY...HAVE SIDED TOWARDS THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
CONTINUED MENTION OF MID RANGE POPS MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY WITH
INCREASE IN POPS ON WEDNESDAY.  OVERALL...APPEARS AS THOUGH MUCH OF
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  IF
WE WERE ABLE TO GET PRECIP HERE...WOULD BE A TOUGH CALL BUT APPEARS
TO BE SOME SORT OF MIXTURE TO THE SOUTH WITH SNOW DOMINANTLY FALLING
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

MODELS SHOW FALLING TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED AS INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH WITH MUCH COOLER
AIR POURING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  HAVE SQUASHED THE DIURNAL
RANGE ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WEST...WITH LESS MANIPULATION FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  HAVE ALSO LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WITH -15 TO -17 DEGREE AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 925 HPA.
HAVE ALSO RAISED WINDS CLOSER TO MOS VALUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.  AT THIS POINT...DID NOT GO STRONGLY
COOL...AS LIMITED SNOW COVER MAY AID IN SOME MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST SAT NOV 30 2013

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CLOUDS AND CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z AT TAF
LOCATIONS...KFSD...KSUX AND KHON. CIGS WILL BE LOWERING OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SE SD AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES BUT
WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...CIGS COULD FALL TO AS LOW AS 4000 FT ON SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHER CONCERN IS STRATUS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF ND
AND NW MN. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BRING THESE CLOUDS INTO THE
MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AND MAY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AS
FAR WEST AS KMML AND KMWM THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST TOWARD SUNRISE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LESS THAN 10
KTS...FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHUMACHER
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SCHUMACHER