Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 131722
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1122 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Clouds slow to clear early this morning in a few spots, which has
kept temperatures above zero. To the north of the clouds
temperatures have fallen to 5 below to 10 below zero at 3 am. With
some wind across southwest MN and northwest IA wind chills were
running 20 below to 25 below zero. So, will maintain the wind chill
advisory through mid morning. Another cold day today without too
much wind. Clouds will gradually increase this afternoon as another
weak piece of energy moves into the area. This system will be
fighting some mid level dry air like yesterdays system so any snow
chances will come tonight and should move through south central SD
down the Missouri River.

With the clouds and increasing southerly flow through the night lows
will not be as cold as this morning. Expect lows from zero to 5
below in southwest MN to around 10 above in south central SD.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

A stronger system will drop south through MN and the eastern
Dakotas on Sunday. Soundings suggest that saturation will be
likely so as the strongest forcing moves through expect some
patchy light snow. Increased chances some Sunday afternoon and
evening, but for now amounts should remain on the light side, an
inch or less with the better chance along and east of a Brookings
to Ida Grove line. Temperatures will be mild, at least relatively
so, with highs from the mid 20s in southwest MN to the mid 30s in
south central SD.

As this system drops south Sunday night much colder air will build
in behind. North winds of 15 to 30 mph are expected Sunday night
into Monday with falling temperatures. Will definitely need a wind
chill advisory for most locations late Sunday night through Tuesday
morning and more than likely a wind chill warning across southwest
MN and nearby locations.

Upper level ridging will move across the area Wednesday and Thursday
with west and southwest flow aloft into the weekend. This will bring
temperatures back to normal Wednesday and likely above normal
Thursday through Saturday. At this time rain and snow does not look
likely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

A large area of 2000 to 6000 ft ceilings currently extends from
western South Dakota into most of Nebraska and southern Iowa. As
the upper wave move southeast through the day, winds in this layer
will gradually shift to southwest. The combination of advection
of these clouds and lift associated with warm air advection will
move these clouds eastward into HON and SUX first and then into
FSD. At this point, have continued with MVFR ceilings for a
portion of late tonight and tomorrow morning given expected low
level lift near the inversion. But there are signs that model
output is overestimating low level moisture so will need to
monitor ceilings to see if forecast can be made more optimistic
in future. A strong arctic front with low ceilings, strong winds,
and snow will move across the region after 18Z Sunday and impact
all forecast locations.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Schumacher



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