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000
FXUS63 KFSD 112044
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
344 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

ONE THING ABOUT THIS CURRENT SYSTEM THAT IS GOING AS PLANNED IS THE
RAPID EXIT OF LINGERING PRECIPITATION. THE LIGHT RAIN...WITH A
LITTLE SNOW MIXED SPENCER IOWA AREA...OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA WILL CONTINUE A STEADY EXIT...AND SHOULD
BE GONE BEFORE SUNSET EVEN OVER OUR FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER. THE
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST...WITH MOST
OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK BRUSHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER BREAKING UP.

WEAK AND HARD TO FIND WAVE IN RAPID NORTHWEST FLOW LATER TONIGHT
STILL BRINGS AN AREA OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS BELOW THE MID LEVELS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. CANNOT FIND MUCH
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE...AND DO KICK OUT SOME MINIMAL LIGHT
SNOW...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. TEMPTED TO GO JUST WITH A FLURRY MENTION...BUT THAT AND
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF BARELY MEASURABLE SNOW SAY JUST ABOUT THE
SAME THING. AS TEMPERATURES COOL TONIGHT...WE OF COURSE WILL NOT
HAVE ANY PROBLEM WITH THE PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...BEING SNOW. THIS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING IF IT IS
INDEED THERE AT ALL. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT WILL
NOT BE SOLID...AND SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY WELL
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING EAST WITH THE
DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS NORTHEAST TO THE
UPPER 20S SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH WINDS SLOWLY DROPPING
OFF. WEDNESDAY SHOULD RECOVER TO CLOSE TO 30 NORTHEAST TO 50
SOUTHWEST WITH VERY MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS TRYING TO GO WEST OR
SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT LATER IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A SOMEWHAT MILDER NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS UP ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 20S EAST
OF INTERSTATE 29...TO UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S TO THE WEST...WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADYING OUT OR RISING A BIT LATE AT NIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION AND WINDS TAKE ON A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. BY THURSDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
FELT IN FULL FORCE AS 925 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE RANGE OF 10
TO 15 DEGREES C...AND STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE
MAIN EFFECT BEING JUST A FEW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE NORTHWEST AND PICKING UP BIT OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS AND ENHANCED
MIXING...IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.

IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY...THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...WITH LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TO LOWER
50S THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR. IT WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE
BREEZY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 15 KTS.

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...SETTING UP A COOL NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND LOWS IN
THE 20S. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON A
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE MODELS...BUT COULD TRIGGER
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW DURING THE PERIOD DEPENDING ON SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT THE TIME.

LESS CERTAINTY FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. 12Z GFS WARMS IT UP
SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. AT THIS POINT...ALLBLEND GUIDANCE GIVES HIGHS
MID 40S TO MID 50S...BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

SOUTHEAST OF MJQ/FSD/YKN LINE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1-3K FEET AND
AREAS OF VISIBILITIES 3-5SM IN -RASN WILL IMPROVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY 12/00Z TO VFR WITH A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS 1-3K FEET.
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY VFR...BUT A FEW AREAS OF CEILINGS 1-3K FEET
MAINLY BEFORE 12/00Z AND AFTER 12/06Z.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...